h/t Legalinsurrection
Posted on 10/28/2012 2:30:11 PM PDT by markomalley
The Democratic mayor of Denver said Sunday that President Obama could lose the battleground state of Wisconsin if the incumbent’s supporters fail to increase early voter turnout in the Badger State.
“If the election was held today, President Barack Obama would lose the state of Wisconsin because where his base is, we have not turned out the vote early," Mayor Michael Hancock told a Democratic rally. "The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote.
"We've got to get our people to go vote," Hancock said.
Early voting, which began in Wisconsin on Oct. 22, is a central component of Obama’s strategy to win the state. The president won Wisconsin four years ago by 14 percentage points, but recent polls show the race with Republican Mitt Romney tightening, and that is fueling Republican enthusiasm about their chances of seizing the state.
In a later interview with The Washington Examiner, Hancock said he was confident Obama would emerge from Wisconsin victorious.
“There’s a great deal of enthusiasm,” Hancock said. “We expect clearly that President Obama will win the state of Wisconsin.”
But he also said that it’s vital for Obama’s base to make it to the polls in Wisconsin.
“This is a very close race, and the point we’re trying to make is make sure the base shows up, turns out and begins to vote early,” Hancock said. “I saw where the votes were rolling in, and I said we’ve got to make sure that where the president’s base is, they get out and vote.”
Hancock was in Wisconsin to stump for Obama, but the Obama campaign said their surrogates portrayal of where the race stands doesn't match the early voting statistics they've seen.
“We are very grateful that Mayor Hancock came and did what we need to do, which is keep people enthused. He is absolutely right that we have to get our base out,” Joe Zepecki, a spokesman for Obama’s campaign in Wisconsin, said. “But the numbers we are seeing do not back up his assessment that our base is not turning out.”
Zepecki said the campaign remains optimistic nine days from Election Day.
“We are seeing a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of turnout in the places where we need to see it,” Zepecki said. “We’re very confident.”
The GOP ground game in Wisconsin is well oiled. We all know people on our lists who we need to contact to vote. And talk radio is a huge GOTV effort for us here. Plus Paul Ryan’s congressional district leans Dem, and all Paul has to do is convert a few of those people.
Final note, Bush lost here in 2000 by only 5,000 votes. And lost in 2004 by only 12,000 votes. Both out of approx 2.5 million cast.
Not saying Wisconsin is safe for Romney. Not at all. But if Romney loses Wisconsin, it means the Obama wave showed up again. And if they show up again, we’re also losing OH, MI and PA.
Most of your switch hitters are actually members of a faction based on occupation, wealth, geography, race, religion, etc. that's transitioning from one party to another to get a better deal.
There are so few independents they aren't worth knowing about ~
For several decades Democrats have been working on a theory that the best way to increase their turnout is to get NEW VOTERS from previously unregistered adults ~ usually youth, but also socially and/or religiously conservative people.
Four years ago they made great strides in that regard and then followed that up with a major get out the vote campaign that brought out 10 million of their first time registered voters to vote for Obama. During that same period the Republican party forgot about turnout again and ended up with fewer voters in 2008 than they'd gotten in 2004.
50 years ago one of the popular ideas was that there was a broad middle which had a lot of moderate or independent or undecided voters who could be persuaded to vote for Democrats, or Republicans with sound reasons and attractive political platforms or inducements.
Barry Goldwater saw through that problem and recognized there are only two major coalition parties, and that's all there's ever been ~ and there's no 'normal curve' showing a continuum of American political thought.
LBJ also understood the theory, agreed with it, and used that theory to beat Barry in one of histories major blowouts!
Richard NIxon saw the idea in use and adopted and won twice, as did Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush!
For some reason we continue to have Republicans who persist in the erroneous belief about the 'normal curve'. They are almost doomed to lose up against a campaign with a strong component of increasing Democrat turnout.
Romney doesn’t need OH if he gets WI, CO and then any one of NH, IA or NV. He should definitely keep leveraging Walker and Ryan’s influence and get WI in the bag.
h/t Legalinsurrection
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