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Is Rasmussen using D+3, or D+6?
Self | Oct 29, 2012 | Self

Posted on 10/28/2012 7:49:43 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr

Yesterday morning I believe, in a thread, at least twice it was posted that Rasmussen has moved from a D+3 to D+6 partisan model. I took it that the second post was from a Rasmussen paid subscriber. Do we have confirmation or denial of this? ... Wouldn't normally interrupt into main threads, but this is a pretty important factoid, question about veracity came up on another thread tonight. (I searched ... but without searching body of threads, can't locate it to see if it was confirmed later in the thread.)


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; polls; rasmussen
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Yesterday morning I believe, in a thread, at least twice it was posted that Rasmussen has moved from a D+3 to D+6 partisan model. I took it that the second post was from a Rasmussen paid subscriber. Do we have confirmation or denial of this? ... Wouldn't normally interrupt into main threads, but this is a pretty important factoid, question about veracity came up on another thread tonight. (I searched ... but without searching body of threads, can't locate it to see if it was confirmed later in the thread.)
1 posted on 10/28/2012 7:49:43 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Depends on where he’s polling. I think he uses 2008 and 2010 turnout averages, and then leverages it against enthusiasm factors to get a proper sample figure.


2 posted on 10/28/2012 7:57:05 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Rasmussen uses a D+3 (39D/36R/25I).


3 posted on 10/28/2012 8:00:21 PM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: Senator Goldwater
That was my understanding UNTIL until a few weeks ago, at which point, it was pointed out pretty definitely here that Ras has stopped using his own partisan affiliation models (which were about D+4 in 08 but had moved R through 2010 to now at about R+3), and gone to a hard, solid, national D+3.

Then yesterday, people were surprised that a couple people posted he had changed even that to D+6.

I'd love to know what he's using at the state level, but I'd settle for being sure about his national model.

I'm in a daily conversation lifting the spirits of many Romney people (to the truth, as far as I'm concerned), and making fun of my liberal friends, who will eat their words for every time in the past 3 months they have called me nuts, crazy, lying etc.

4 posted on 10/28/2012 8:06:26 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: nhwingut

thanks for all your posts. you have really helped a lot of us analyze and stay informed.

quick question: do you feel “pretty good” about things?

I do, personally. I go back and forth, but the lows are not as low and the highs somehow don’t feel high, but just really well...rational.

I feel pretty good.

Agree? Or no?


5 posted on 10/28/2012 8:08:25 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: nhwingut

Any idea what the talk of D+6 switch from D+3 was yesterday?

I can probably find the thread, but it didn’t sound like people were just tossing it out - sounded like they were paid subscribers, at least 2 people stated it as fact.


6 posted on 10/28/2012 8:08:39 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

I can’t give you a link but we did have a Raz subscriber post a few days back that it was definitely D+3. He sounded pretty authoritative so I took him at his word.

Also, a 3 point jump from D+3 to D+6 would cost Romney nearly 3 points in the tracking poll over a 3 day period. We saw no such jump. So I’m sticking to the D+3 theory.


7 posted on 10/28/2012 8:09:01 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

if Rasmussen uses D+6, and in reality there are 4% more registered Republicans than democrats, in ‘12, doesn’t that mean Rasmussen has over sampled democrats by 10? so, his 4 point lead for R/R should be 14?


8 posted on 10/28/2012 8:11:29 PM PDT by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Ras isn’t weighting the polls—the reality is that there are just more Ds.


9 posted on 10/28/2012 8:14:01 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: stickywillie

It’s probably D+3, and there’s a good bet that the GOP and DEMs will be within 1% of each other nationally.


10 posted on 10/28/2012 8:15:32 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Utmost Certainty

You are like the lying Kenyan repeating the bs 5 trillion dollar tax cut that Mitt supposedly has proposed. Prove me wrong!

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


11 posted on 10/28/2012 8:16:58 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: stickywillie
Isn't the +(?) what Zogby called his 'secret sauce.' Then most of his burned at the bottom of the pan.

If turnout is key, shouldn't we weight the poll enough to give the average D voter enough confidence to say "Pookie" will do it, while scaring enough Americans to set 5 alarm clocks the day of the election? In that case, D+4 sounds about right.

12 posted on 10/28/2012 8:18:40 PM PDT by CT
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To: stickywillie

I’m agreed - it would make no sense not only because of that, but his numbers didn’t change.

I’ll see if I can dig it up. Whoever the 2 posters were, they were pretty clear about the D+6, appropriately shocked, and I don’t think they were ... skewing around ... so to speak.


13 posted on 10/28/2012 8:18:48 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

The talk, I believe, was based on Romney winning the Indies by 20+ but still only up by 3-4. It did not seem possible.

But I think many missed that Romney was scoring 86-88% base support, not the historical 90-93. Every extra 3% from base (based on 36% Rs) adds a full point.

He did firm up his base today, and stands at 90% for Republican support. But dropped Indie support.

Also, Rasmussen only rounds off the toplines numbers. So when it shows, 50-47 for example, it could be closer to 51-46 when you dig into the data (decimal points), e.g. 50.46-46.50 will read 50-47 as the topline, but it’s actually almost 4 point lead.


14 posted on 10/28/2012 8:20:03 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr
This is my prediction...IF Romney is still in the 50% range tomorrow by a few pollster...HE WINS!! This is it..do or die, this is the last week and YOU AIN'T gonna change too many minds with nine days left TIL the big DAY! PLEASE LORD bring victory to Romney's camp....DON'T FORGET PRAYER AND FASTING TOMORROW!! This week is going to be the WEEK FROM HELL, this is the time that Obumbler and his evil demonic hordes are going to go insane and start a Racial war..or something more sinister! BE ON YOUR KNEES!!
15 posted on 10/28/2012 8:21:09 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: InterceptPoint; nhwingut; LS; Ravi; tatown; Perdogg

Intercept,

that was NHWingut. See his post number 3 above.

Also see his posts in the DAILY RAS thread from yesterday and today.

NH does awesome work with the RAS Internals


16 posted on 10/28/2012 8:21:58 PM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Utmost Certainty
Ras isn’t weighting the polls—the reality is that there are just more Ds.

That's not true.

Rasmussen does weight his poll. He uses 39/36/25. And there are in fact more Republicans than Democrats this year.

Gallup just released it's party id/electorate survey on Friday: 35D/36R/29I R+1.

Rasmussen releases his party id every month. Right now it's at R+2.6.
17 posted on 10/28/2012 8:24:10 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: tatown

No ...

Here’s where the posts are ...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2950508/posts

Gman, Ravi, Lacey2 refer to it ...

I’m reviewing to see if its refuted later in the thread.


18 posted on 10/28/2012 8:25:52 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr
His national tracking poll weekly summary is 3.500 likely voters 36R/39D/25O.

His Florida state poll from Friday was 750 likely voters 43R/39D/18O.

His Virginia poll from Thursday was 750 likely voters 38R/37D/24O.

His Ohio poll from Wednesday was 750 likely voters 39R/38D/23O.

-PJ

19 posted on 10/28/2012 8:27:44 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: nhwingut

Here’s a bit copied and pasted from that thread, on Friday ...

To: The G Man
Yeah he did change it to a D+6 model. That irritates me. I think he is scared of showing a romney blowout.
10 posted on Fri Oct 26 2012 09:48:49 GMT-0400 (EDT) by Ravi


20 posted on 10/28/2012 8:30:36 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: Political Junkie Too

Got it - so the D+6 was probably a reference from a state poll?

Assuming so, thanks PJ


21 posted on 10/28/2012 8:32:12 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: nhwingut

nhwingnut....

why does RAS weight like that then? If his own party ID split is different? Not challenging you, but you have provided some pretty insightful information. Thanks in advance....


22 posted on 10/28/2012 8:32:48 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: nhwingut

You’ve provided specific information, duplicated by “Political Junkie Too”, and yet some don’t seem to want to hear the answers.


23 posted on 10/28/2012 8:33:06 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Utmost Certainty
Ras isn’t weighting the polls—the reality is that there are just more Ds.

Gallup doesn't ask their party affiliation.

24 posted on 10/28/2012 8:35:33 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate "Republicans Freed the Slaves" Month)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Thanks for posting. This needed to be flushed out.


25 posted on 10/28/2012 8:36:09 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

Once it gets out on Twitter it’s hard to bring it back.

But I am positive that Rasmussen is using a D+3.


26 posted on 10/28/2012 8:36:33 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: nhwingut; tatown

I’ve been under the impression that most of the legit pollsters simply report whatever the party representation of the sample happened to be.


27 posted on 10/28/2012 8:39:33 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: nhwingut

Thanks NH ...

Certainly makes sense that it’s still D+3

And probably it was a serious discussion about D+6, but referring to an individual state, or just quoting a bad source. Not going to investigate the entire thread.


28 posted on 10/28/2012 8:41:03 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: gswilder
why does RAS weight like that then? If his own party ID split is different?

It's the million dollar question. It's frustrating that his own surveys show a R+2.6 and yet he re-weights it to a D+3 - almost a 6 point swing.

In the past (i.e. 2008) he always used his party id survey for his daily polling. I mean isn't that the purpose of the party id survey? That's what Gallup does. They do not weight. They use what they get. And they are getting R+1. That's why it is unlikely that Romney will ever drop in the Gallup poll with that sample, and a week to go.

My opinion is that Rasmussen (who takes heat from the left) is hedging his bets, and being conservative.

If Romney ends up being up 3-4 in the final D+3 Rasmussen poll, add an extra 3 points. That's why I think it'll be 52-47 for Romney.
29 posted on 10/28/2012 8:43:46 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr
Probably.

I just found the North Carolina poll from Saturday was 500 likely voters 34R/41D/24O.

The Pennsylvania poll from Thursday was 500 likely voters 37R/43D/20O.

The Michigan poll from Friday was 500 likely voters 34R/37D/29O.

The Massachusetts poll from Tuesday was 500 likely voters 17R/43D/40O.

I could go on.

-PJ

30 posted on 10/28/2012 8:44:48 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: nhwingut; CatOwner

I was wrong. Retweeted @numberscruncher who was incorrect. Nhwingnut’s explanation is exactly correct. Romney was winning only 85-88% of republicans up until today so that’s why he wasn’t cleaning pbama’s clock even though he was cleaning up wit indies.


31 posted on 10/28/2012 8:46:45 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Political Junkie Too
Would love to see the CA numbers:

95D/-10R/15O (or at least it seems that way having lived here for over 50 years)

32 posted on 10/28/2012 8:47:13 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Utmost Certainty

Some do, some don’t.

It depends on the sample size. Gallup does a massive sample (2500 plus) so they will get a good read of the electorate and will not weigh.

But smaller samples have to be weighted or else they would be useless.


33 posted on 10/28/2012 8:47:22 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: Ravi
"Romney was winning only 85-88% of republicans up until today so that’s why he wasn’t cleaning pbama’s clock even though he was cleaning up wit indies."

Where in the heck is he polling these Republicans? I do not know of one Republican in CA where I live who is voting for Obama. Squirrelly, if you ask me.

34 posted on 10/28/2012 8:49:22 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: nhwingut

Cool, thanks. Gallup seems the better barometer to me in that case.


35 posted on 10/28/2012 8:50:00 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: ROCKLOBSTER

Not according to the guy who runs Gallup. They do not ask party at beginning of poll, they do ask party at end of poll.


36 posted on 10/28/2012 8:51:09 PM PDT by X-spurt (It is truly time for ON YOUR FEET or on your knees)
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To: nhwingut

That’s been my explanation to friends.

Rasmussen has a reputation to uphold in terms of accuracy, but he also has a business presence & narrative.

No one can ever prove you were wrong 2 weeks before the election.

If I’m Rasmussen, I’m thinking ‘stay close enough to the truth that I can veer towards it a few days prior to election, but stay within the pack, giving me the most options.’

‘Hedge’ and ‘conservative’ are the exact two words I’ve probably used 10 times in emails to explain to friends in the past week ...

Thanks!


37 posted on 10/28/2012 8:52:10 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

if ras is not sampling properly....+3 or +6D, when really it’s + something for R, why is he any better than the rest?....because he’s not +13D? why bother to sample @ all if your not being honest, like the lib polls?


38 posted on 10/28/2012 8:54:10 PM PDT by stickywillie (stanley ann went black, & never came back)
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To: CatOwner
The last Rasmussen California poll was in February. 31R/38D/31O.

-PJ

39 posted on 10/28/2012 8:54:42 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: X-spurt

Yes, but I also thought I heard him say they don’t use it for weighting.


40 posted on 10/28/2012 8:57:29 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate "Republicans Freed the Slaves" Month)
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To: CatOwner

This is where Ras may have some issues with a robopoll and people lying. That’s just a hunch on my part. Some enterprising dems may i repeat may be claiming to be republicans voting obama. That’s why romney’s share of republican voters is slightly lower in ras compared to other pollsters from what I’ve seen.


41 posted on 10/28/2012 8:57:58 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

I think there is one remaining caveat.

Rasmussen has his party id published at the end of every month.

As stated, in September it came in at R+2.6 (after a rough September for Romney).

I’m wondering if it went back up to around the R+4 range (like it was in August), would Rasmussen then adjust his weighting for the last week to reflect a more realistic turnout? Not so much a weight of R+4 but say R+1 like Gallup.

It should be an interesting week.


42 posted on 10/28/2012 8:58:43 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

Poll ping discussion.


43 posted on 10/28/2012 8:58:48 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: HannibalHamlinJr

If D/R party ID is even on election day, and Romney is really winning Indys by RCP average of 15, then this is a blowout of epic proportions.

Seems like every pollster is ignoring the 2010 elections. Maybe they never factor mid-terms into the presidential race. But the ground swell for Repubs in 2010 has not abated. The reasons for the massive swing in 2010 is even more urgent now. The people who were mad in 2010 are even angrier now. USSC upheld Obamacare. Economy still stuck in neutral. More government intervention and regulation.

I have been saying since August, R53/O47 and 330 EVs.


44 posted on 10/28/2012 9:00:22 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: nhwingut

I think you meant to say “D+2.6” for September.


45 posted on 10/28/2012 9:01:22 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: gswilder
Seems like every pollster is ignoring the 2010 elections. Maybe they never factor mid-terms into the presidential race. But the ground swell for Repubs in 2010 has not abated. The reasons for the massive swing in 2010 is even more urgent now. The people who were mad in 2010 are even angrier now. USSC upheld Obamacare. Economy still stuck in neutral. More government intervention and regulation.

I've wondered about that, myself. What happened in 2010 doesn't fit their "narrative."

I have been saying since August, R53/O47 and 330 EVs.

I hope you are right!

46 posted on 10/28/2012 9:04:49 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: Ravi

Yes. Republicans historically get 92-93% of their base, while Democrats secure 88-89% of their base.

Both Romney (90%) and Obama (86%) are underperforming with their base.

I find it hard to believe that Romney won’t get 94% or so of Republican voters on 11/6.


47 posted on 10/28/2012 9:05:43 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: SamAdams76

No, the party id survey came in at R+2.6... But he uses a D+3 sample.

Here...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


48 posted on 10/28/2012 9:08:33 PM PDT by nhwingut (If you are concerned, you are not paying attention (or you are a troll). It will be a landslide.)
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To: nhwingut

OK, thanks for clarifying.


49 posted on 10/28/2012 9:10:37 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: stickywillie

I’m agreed -

Which is why I’ve told friends that Ras is no longer a Bible.

That said, I still think he’s the benchmark in terms of trend. His D+3 is a sin, but a predictable sin. Many of the other polls - I doubt they’re even consistent WITHIN their own model.

But this year, I’ve trusted the polls that don’t sauce it up, plus adjusting Rasmussen’s polls for the skew. Looks like from his intra-state polls - FL, VA etc ... that he’s not applying as much sauce.

Some of the smaller intra-state pollsters are the most accurate because of this - they’re more a reflection of what’s on the ground.

So I supect the Michigan poll from a couple days ago is pretty close, as is the Minnesota poll calling a 3 point race. (It’s probably about 1 though - but Marist would probably say it’s Obama +45)

Susquehanna, soon after releasing it’s PA polls showing it even and then 3 weeks ago with Romney up, defended itself in the face of a lot of flack by simply identifying all the things we’ve been talking about here. That it’s not a 2008 wave (might be the opposite), that blacks and yoots aren’t turning out, that indy’s are breaking to Romney ... and about 5 other things ... they just said ‘hey, we’re just being rational, not saucy.’

And remember - Suffolk pulled out of FL, VA and NC about 2 weeks ago, stating that they were a lock for Romney. That was about 10 days before people starting saying ‘well, looks like FL is leaning strong to Romney, NC too, VA looking scary for Obama.’

Suffolk called all that 2 weeks ago.

Ras though, whatever his reasoning, is I belief reliable as long as you know the adjustment.

But even with adjustments, it doesn’t all add up. I think we’ve accounted for 70% of the inaccuracies. The rest - who knows ... you can tweak these numbers any way you want with plausible deniability.

If you listen to the news - they take little pieces from each poll and stitch it together into the story they want to tell.

The best poll is “where are the campaigns visiting and advertising”

Which is why it’s so great that Romney has his “Expand the Map” push going on.


50 posted on 10/28/2012 9:14:55 PM PDT by HannibalHamlinJr
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