Interesting internals in the poll. Rasmussen reports that 32% of the expected electorate has already voted and Obama has a large lead among those early voters:
“Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters.”
However, on an earlier thread (that was eventually pulled because it lacked a link to the source)Ravi noted that one expects about 5.4 to 5.6 million votes. Until now early total voting and absentees only accounts for 1 million votes, ie at most 18.5%.
Thus, Rasmussen’s poll is, unless the turn-out this year will be lower than 3.2 millions, highly skewed with respect to those who have voted early.
Given that part of the sample gives Obama a large lead, the conclusion must be that (everything else the same) a correct sample would have shown Romney in an even larger lead.
PS: I quoted Ravi’s figures from memory. Hopefully he will come by and correct me if necessary.
As of 10/27, 1.6 million voters have requested absentee ballots. 1 million have submitted ballots/early voted in toto. I expect turnout to be 5.6 to 5.7 million. Others may disagree. So 1/5.6 is 18%. 1.6/5.6 is 28.5%. So both numbers are less than the 32% who told rasmussen they VOTED. 1.6 million are ABOUT TO VOTE of which 1 million have actually VOTED. Key distinction.
I am not good at providing links and such. In a google search it says that there is a business week article that states that of the voters who have voted in Ohio this year, that 45% of the registered democrats had voted. One would expect that virtually all democrats would have voted for Obama. If approx a third of all who will vote have voted early in and almost half the democrats have voted, it would seem that this bodes very well for Romney. ??