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Michael Barone: Changing Demographics Won't mean End of The Republican Party
Townhall ^ | Michael Barone

Posted on 10/29/2012 4:59:37 PM PDT by emax

When reading one of the endless stories about a just-released poll Thursday night, a pair of numbers struck my eye: 60 and 37.

Those were the percentages of white voters supporting Mitt Romney and Barack Obama in the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll. Overall, the poll showed Romney leading Obama 50 to 47 percent.

The reason those two numbers struck my eye is that they are identical to the percentages of white voters supporting Republicans and Democrats in elections for the House of Representatives in the 2010 exit poll. Overall, Republicans won the House popular vote by a margin of 52 to 45 percent, tied with 1994 for the best Republican showing since 1946.

In fact, it's the Republicans' biggest margin among white voters in House elections ever since the party was formed in 1854. Republican presidential candidates have won by bigger margins among whites only in 1920, 1972 and 1984.

Some will ascribe this to racism. But Barack Obama won enough votes from whites to win with 53 percent in 2008, more than any other Democratic nominee except Andrew Jackson, Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: barone; conservatives; demographics; diversity; dontusetheracecard; outreach; republican; stopracebaiting
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A mix of optimism and realism amongst fear that the smaller percentage of middle aged and older white guys in America means the Republican party is doomed.
1 posted on 10/29/2012 4:59:37 PM PDT by emax
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To: emax

Guess in order to remain competitive, the future GOP will have to move Left + promise more goodies to the Dems usual demographics blocs.


2 posted on 10/29/2012 5:05:20 PM PDT by Utmost Certainty (Our Enemy, the State)
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To: emax

I could care less if the Republican Party survives.


3 posted on 10/29/2012 5:06:35 PM PDT by WackySam (Obama got Osama just like Nixon landed on the moon.)
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To: emax

Many if not most Asians and many Latinos marry middle class whites and raise families in suburbia. The white community may darken but will grow


4 posted on 10/29/2012 5:14:24 PM PDT by hecht (restore Hetch-Hetchy, and screw San Francisco and Pelosi)
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To: emax

Many if not most Asians and many Latinos marry middle class whites and raise families in suburbia. The white community may darken but will grow


5 posted on 10/29/2012 5:14:25 PM PDT by hecht (restore Hetch-Hetchy, and screw San Francisco and Pelosi)
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: emax
Think of it as an assembly line. When people are young they are naive and idealistic. They believe that utopia is possible if you just vote for it.

As these youngsters grow older and experience the real world and begin to recognize the con artists for the shysters they really are, they begin to change from democrats to republicans.

7 posted on 10/29/2012 5:19:07 PM PDT by oldbrowser (An empty chair attracts a stadium full of empty chairs.)
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To: WackySam

The ideology of the GOP is heading leftward.


8 posted on 10/29/2012 5:23:33 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: emax
The Republican Party is nothing more than a bunch of degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers who waged war against the sons of the Founders in 1861 and murdered the Republic via imposition of Universal Suffrage via Constitutional Amendment.

They have since conspired with the communist faction of their fellow Washingtonians to make slaves of the working man outside of DC, under penalty of imprisonment via the IRS and the DOJ.

The Washingtonians have got it figured out, and basically fight every 4 years over control of the cash extorted from the working class.

The RNC and their greedy pulled back wives aren't much different than the DNC commies, it's all a scam.

9 posted on 10/29/2012 5:29:01 PM PDT by Rome2000 (NO ONE IN ROMNEYS DIRECT LINE HAS EVER SERVED THE UNITED STATES IN UNIFORM 170 YEARS)
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To: emax

In the sixties, conservative voters in the South figured out that the Democrat Party of their fathers and grandfathers was the enemy of their core beliefs in freedom, liberty, self reliance, and limited government. The South is now solid red. The rest of the country is starting to wake up and will likewise abandon the party of their forefathers.

The Republican Party should take note, however. If they act like Democrats, they will be abandoned as well and a new party will rise up. We are tired of writing the checks to support the Get-a-Check crowd.


10 posted on 10/29/2012 5:37:39 PM PDT by centurion316
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To: hecht

Vietnamese become middle class aggressively and most still have the traditional family structure which means the kids don’t rebel and they vote according to middle class status or aspirations and with traditional distrust of government.


11 posted on 10/29/2012 5:47:00 PM PDT by ThanhPhero (Khach hanh huong den La Vang)
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To: Rome2000

I agree.


12 posted on 10/29/2012 5:48:57 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: emax

As the West begins to endure true debt-induced austerity, we may very well see more younger people going conservative, as the majority of debt is being spent on programs for the baby-boomers, and the young are getting the worst of the deal - higher taxes and less employment mainly.

Start watching about 15:50. Niall Ferguson makes a very good case for this idea.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu-VKTgXyR0


13 posted on 10/29/2012 6:00:25 PM PDT by PGR88
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To: Rome2000

The working class doesn’t pay much in taxes, actually.


14 posted on 10/29/2012 6:08:14 PM PDT by Clemenza ("History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil governm)
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To: WackySam; cripplecreek; emax; Rome2000; HANG THE EXPENSE
"I could care less if the Republican Party survives." - WackySam

"The ideology of the GOP is heading leftward." - cripplecreek

"...means the Republican party is doomed." - emax

"The white community may darken but will grow." - hecht

"The Republican Party is nothing more than a bunch of degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers..." - Rome2000

"I agree." - HANG THE EXPENSE

---

Contrary to the prevailing opinion on this thread the GOP has grown quite a bit since the 2010 elections, and that growth continues. Even the liberal PEW group had to admit that GOP growth has been significant.

And what about the liberal views within GOP elected officials? The fact is, they aren’t supported by grass-roots conservatism where the largest segment of growth resides? They don’t like it, and are rising up in opposition to ‘Republicans’ that vote with the Democrats.

Conservatism within the GOP is in high ascendency, and in fact represents the greatest concentration of conservatives among all political parties that have any chance in future elections. If you don’t support them, then your own conservatism is highly suspect.

I invite all of you to visit your own local district central committee, precinct, or ward (different names for the party at the local level) and vote there – against pretend conservatism. It’s all too easy to do so.

I suggest you all get out of the house and find out what real conservatives do to earn the moniker.

15 posted on 10/29/2012 6:18:03 PM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: Rome2000

You think Republicans are degenerate blue blood banker country clubbers??? I’m sure this place must be teeming with them right? Maybe you can point some out for me.


16 posted on 10/29/2012 6:30:07 PM PDT by GOPJ ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbOuxqK2T34)
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To: Admin Moderator
Don't be afraid to see what you see.

Ronald Reagan.
17 posted on 10/29/2012 6:34:01 PM PDT by cripplecreek (What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his soul?)
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To: Admin Moderator; WackySam; cripplecreek; emax; Rome2000; HANG THE EXPENSE; Jim Robinson
Contrary to the prevailing opinion on this thread the GOP has grown quite a bit since the 2010 elections, and that growth continues. Even the liberal PEW group had to admit that GOP growth has been significant.

This isn't a discusson about the size of the GOP, but whether or not it is headed in the right direction.

As conservatives, we aren't all that enthralled with the sell-out approach of the "Big-Tent".

Conservatism within the GOP is in high ascendency, and in fact represents the greatest concentration of conservatives among all political parties that have any chance in future elections. If you don’t support them, then your own conservatism is highly suspect.

Sorry, but if that were true, why is the following happening?

1. The worst candidate, in terms of being a conservative, won the nomination.
2. That same candidate supports Abortion in the cases of incest, rape, life, and HEALTH of the mother.
3. That same candidate supports the Gay Agenda by supporting Gays in the Military, Gay Adoption, and fathered Gay Marriage in MA.
4. The GOP spends one million dollars on an openly Gay, extreme left-wing pretend Republican Tsei in MA, but refuses to back a 96% Conservative in Todd Akin because of a statement, however unwise it was, that was twisted by the Press.
5. Boehner Leading the House
6. McConnell Leading the Senate

Any growth in the size of the GOP, this election cycle, has come at the expense of conservatives and their principles.

You may have a point about the Grassroots, but you have exactly no point where the leadership of the GOP is concerned.
18 posted on 10/29/2012 6:41:27 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency.)
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To: Rome2000

Damn Brother , you got it figured.


19 posted on 10/29/2012 6:42:16 PM PDT by silentreignofheroes
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To: SoConPubbie; VinL; ex-snook; sport; INVAR; ejonesie22; PieterCasparzen; Colonel_Flagg; Washi; ...

Ping!


20 posted on 10/29/2012 6:44:22 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency.)
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