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Roanoke College Poll (VA) Pres: R49 O44; Senate: A47 K42 senate
Roanoke College ^ | 10/31/12 | roanoke college

Posted on 10/31/2012 6:09:58 AM PDT by Ravi

Governor Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama by a very narrow margin in Virginia (49% - 44%), according to a Roanoke College Poll conducted after the Presidential debates. Republican George Allen also enjoys a 5 point lead over Democrat Tim Kaine (47% - 42%) in the race for the U.S. Senate seat in Virginia. The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 638 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 23 and October 26 and has a margin of error of +4 percent. Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney's lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen's lead to 51 percent to 39 percent.[1]

(Excerpt) Read more at roanoke.edu ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; obama; romney; ryan
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College polls never favor republicans. This one does. Umm, quinnipiac, u wanna take your poll back? Look at the stringent screen for LV also.
1 posted on 10/31/2012 6:10:09 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Yeah, 49-44 very narrow.


2 posted on 10/31/2012 6:12:06 AM PDT by scottinoc
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To: randita; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ..

ping


3 posted on 10/31/2012 6:12:26 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Ravi

It is all down to turnout.

As long as the RATs don’t beat us by five points or more, we should win.

I like our chances.


4 posted on 10/31/2012 6:13:02 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Ravi

wow, a poll showing Romney up. I haven’t seen one of these in awhile. Just “Momentum” post. Keep them coming in their out there


5 posted on 10/31/2012 6:13:42 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: Ravi

I’ll take this poll over the QP/NYT/CBS one that was posted here earlier.

It sounds about right.


6 posted on 10/31/2012 6:14:12 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Ravi

I wonder why all of a sudden nobody is demanding to see the internals of a poll, ha ha.


7 posted on 10/31/2012 6:19:04 AM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: Ravi

I live in Northern Virginia — Democratic stronghold. For what it is worth, Obama signs outnumbered McCain signs 10-1 (literally) in 2008. This year, I’d say it is 60-40 Obama...with less outright support for Obama. If Romney can get 40-45% of the vote in No. Virginia, it is over. He will win.


8 posted on 10/31/2012 6:19:09 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: Ravi

Ravi,

VA is going to go Republican. Just like NC, FL and CO.

All of this is manufactured “suspense”

To me the ONLY wildcards left are (in order of leaning Republican most to least)

NH
OH
WI
IA
MI
PA
NV
MN
NM
OR

If it is Gov Romney 53+ in the PV, then he sweeps ALL of them

If he is at 50+ then he should take OH, NH and WI. Maybe even IA

At this stage, I believe the firewall now belongs to Gov Romney


9 posted on 10/31/2012 6:20:16 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: goldstategop

638 likely voters? I give any poll under 1,000 the red flag. I just never trust them; even when I like the outcome.


10 posted on 10/31/2012 6:20:38 AM PDT by Outraged At FLA
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To: Ravi

I live in Virginia and I feel pretty good about Romney winning the state, there is zero enthusiasm for obama here, night and day from 2008.


11 posted on 10/31/2012 6:20:49 AM PDT by The Conservative Goddess
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To: Ravi

Here’s what I’ve seen...Last night I checked out DemocratUnderground.com. It seems like they all are VERY confident Obama is going to win.

I guess one side is going to be very disappointed and shocked next week. Sure hope it’s them.


12 posted on 10/31/2012 6:29:15 AM PDT by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
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To: scottinoc

my thoughts exactly


13 posted on 10/31/2012 6:29:35 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: Tulane

I’m in Arlington; compared to last month where it was all Obama ads on TV, I’ve noticed that the Romney + Republican PAC + that excellent ad about how much socialism sucks from that immigrant guy are overwhelming the Obama ads.


14 posted on 10/31/2012 6:29:46 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: LS; SoftwareEngineer; plushaye; LdSentinal; tatown; Jet Jaguar

ping


15 posted on 10/31/2012 6:31:23 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Outraged At FLA

638 gives you a MoE of 2.31%.

MoE = 1.26 X sqrt((R% X O%)/(n-1))

= 2.31%


16 posted on 10/31/2012 6:31:49 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Ravi

D+4 too...


17 posted on 10/31/2012 6:34:19 AM PDT by Homer1
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To: Ravi

Great numbers, especially that drill-down for likelies! Hopefully they hold through whatever bump Obama might get because of Sandy.


18 posted on 10/31/2012 6:35:07 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Recordhighturnoutisourhopeforsending0bamahome.Prayhard!!!)
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To: Ravi

Hooray. Romney ahead 4. Allen ahead 5. Beautiful!


19 posted on 10/31/2012 6:37:56 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: ScottinVA
Battleground Polling has left Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Declaring Romney the winner

20 posted on 10/31/2012 6:39:09 AM PDT by scooby321 (AMS)
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