Posted on 10/31/2012 7:04:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
We're down to the final week of the election, where we'd normally expect to see pollsters fine-tuning their samples in order to get the most predictive survey results ahead of the election. It's refreshing, therefore, to see the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac partnership decide to buck that trend and stick with consistency. Their polls in the most hotly contested swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia all show Barack Obama edging Mitt Romney --- as long as voter turnout resembles Obama's big win in 2008:
President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.
Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio --- exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president's lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.
What do the samples look like? Here’s the breakdown for each state, with 2008 and 2010 exit polling in parentheses (2009 in VA’s case):
In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.
Let’s take a look at the two key demographics in this election in each of the three states and compare them to 2008. First, let’s start with independents:
Next, let’s look at the overall gender gap in these polls and compare to 2008:
Only in Ohio has Obama managed to maintain a significant gender gap. In all three states, he’s lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents. In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm. I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.
John Kass
Chicago Tribune
Sandy swoops in to save Obama - October 31, 2012 - What a difference a storm named Sandy makes, eh, Mr. President?
Click your ‘Print Preview’ to view the column without having to subscribe.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-kass-sandy-saves-obama-20121031,0,4768067.column
CBS polls are unabashed propaganda. I think they are out there just to skew Rasmussens composite polls. It throws trash in the water to give a sense of inevitability to an Obama win. They seem like the Reuters of America.
Werent they the ones that had the Obama wins report scrolling across the TV screens a few weeks ago in some areas? Rasmussen should exclude overtly partisan data from his composite averages.
I was in a waiting room this morning where I found myself captive to a run of “Morning Joe.” They were all buzzing about this poll, trying to gin up some optimism. David Axlerod made an appearance and swore that if Obama lost any of the battleground states where he’s currenty being shown as ahead, he’d come onto the show and shave off his mustache.
fag boy Nate Silver is up to 77.4% chance of obama victory....
Given that Florida was D+3 in 2008, a D+7 poll that has Obama up one is either a win for Romney or so much toilet paper.
...very nice. This will be wonderful to use next election cycle as their credibility goes into the sewer. Except the sewer smells better than their credibility.
D+8 in Ohio 2012 when it was d+5 in Ohio 2008?
Hard to believe that one.
How does the storm SAVE Obama. I’m so tired of the effing sycophant cheer leading in the media and propaganda and fake “We’re winning” bullshit to get their lazy voters to stay in the game.
It’s vomit inducing.
my local radio news mentioned this poll as if it was the best poll out there and I live in one of the most republican counties in FL, course we get our radio from Jacksonville so that explains it .
Problem is that many hear this and think it is the truth and most have no idea about media bias, internals on a poll etc.
For most of the people in this country they are sheep, they follow blindly and think they want to be popular so trying to explain to them about this poll and internals is like trying to explain to a guppy fish
There, fixed it...
They are trying their best, bless their hearts.
77.4% is probably the likely hood of rat voter fraud.
Yes, CBS polls are unabashed propaganda. What else do you expect from the former employer of Dan Rather? Combining them with the New York Slimes and Quinnipiac makes them that much sleazier.
Rasmussen doesn't do "composite polls," only his own polling. It's the web site "Real Clear Politics" that has been known to average a bunch of different poll results and proclaim that number to be meaningful, when in fact it's generally garbage in, garbage out.
same here, I’m frigging pissed off with this media cheerleading and lying for their messiah.
Americans die and the media wants to cover a woman who had a baby in a storm.
The media is B/S and every day I get to tell people about what is going on for them to tell me am I sure they did not see that on the news last night
This poll is a joke. I heard the local radio lib announce it with glee that Obama is leading VA, when its clear that he does not.
Pay attention to Rasmussen, ignore the rest.
You can’t even come up with even a barely reasonable argument to have a D advantage MORE than 08.
As others have said, this is the ONLY way they can create a horse race. The goal is to keep the libs engaged and HOPE they wake up on election day and go.
Showing a blowout ensures they stay home...BUT
The flip side is that it also makes the anti Obama people go vote, because....its a horse race. If they thought Romney blowout...some of them might stay home too.
It is actually best for both parties it is at least within a couple points perception wise...IMO.
According to CNN, nationwide, the 2008 turnout was D 31.3 to GOP 28.7, a +2.5 gap. In 2004, it was D 28.7 to GOP 30.0, a -1.3 gap.
Does ANYONE believe democrats are going to enjoy a much greater turnout in 2012 than in 2008? If the turnout is the same as in 2004, republicans are going to sweep the country. And I honestly think republicans will do better in 2012 than in 2004...
I think by mid-November, the pollsters are going to be re-evaluating how they conduct polling.
D+8 is nonsense, even D+3 I feel is incorrect,
I personally expect R+3-4 on election day.
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