Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner (Calls it for Romney, 51-48!)

The Wall Street Journal ^ | 11/01/12 | Karl Rove

[TonyInOhio]

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

~ snip ~

In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

[gswilder]

Rove knows his stuff as a political operative. And the fact that he is spending millions in OH, PA, WI, etc, tells us a lot no? You think Rove is just throwing money here and there? He has his own polling firm to help decide where to spending those millions. He knows the state of the race in OH and the other close states. Probably just as well as RR.

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

Your numbers are on the conservative side... :)

[Private_Sector_Does_It_Better]

You’re close. 52-47. :)

[Mountain Mary]

Rush didn’t say that’s what he believes..just that it was a possibility.
I don’t think that’s what Crispy had in mind. He is a drama queen and a sensationalist and all he cares about is getting money for his state.
He is also a RINO and a traitor to praise Bam like he did.

[Katiana Kalashnikova]

The election is over. All decisions have been made. The last few polling days don't matter. Wisconsin, PA and Ohio all go for Romney. Final results: Romney 53 - Obama 47. If I am dead-on I expect some recognition on election day.

Katiana - Long Time Lurker - New Member

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

This is as good as it gets - neck out, but not far...these are numbers I put together a week ago, using various sources.

WA, CA, HI, IL, VT, NY, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC = 179 Obama

All the rest = 359 Romney

Popular Vote, Romney 54% Obama 46%

The map is a sea of red, with a black & blue sore thumb hanging off the tip of Lake Michigan. I have Oregon Red - it can happen - and that keeps the left coast from being all blue. And New Hampshire keeps the northeast from being solid blue. I like it. We ALL gotta get out the vote and we can make it happen. And btw, I have my state, Ohio, 54% to 46% Romney.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

On my morning 5 mile walk, I spotted 3 Obama signs and 2 Romney signs...in a most-Dem stronghold in Silicon Valley. One of the Romney signs had a nice, large, simple sign above it: “Defend Freedom. Defeat Obama.” I see maybe one or two Obama signs on my daily commute and I must see the rear bumper on 100 to 150 cars per day. Even so, the feeling is California is lost, so people are going to Reno to canvass door-to-door there. Too bad Oregon is so far away...it may be in play.

[Freeze923]

Romney getting OH,CO,NH (along with VA,NC,FL)

Watch OR Obama can not get above 47% in any poll in the last month. If the Undecided break for the challenger 4 to 1 that is a 51 to 48 Romney win.

[EDINVA]

“He is also a RINO and a traitor to praise Bam like he did.”

Funny, but all through the primary season, Christie was not only called a RINO on these pages, but also a traitor for his cheerleading on behalf of Romney. He was onboard the Romney Express while everyone here was waiting for Sarah to announce.