Posted on 11/02/2012 4:03:17 AM PDT by markomalley
Polls showing him gaining on McCaskill has led to an infusion of funds for campaign ads on Akin's behalf
Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) is showing signs of a newfound strength on the campaign trail — making multiple new ad buys as polling shows him gaining on Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).
Akin and groups supporting him are making a $1.75 million investment in campaign ads this week, according to his campaign, allowing him to air a wider variety of ads than the incumbent Senator for the first time in the entire race.
That influx of cash has wider implications than just Akin's campaign: His win in Missouri's Senate race would boost what are looking like slim chances for Republicans to take back the majority in the Senate.
Akin’s late-August comments, that pregnancy in cases of “legitimate rape” are rare because “the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down,” drew fire from Republicans nationwide, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee cutting off his campaign after he refused to exit the race.
He dropped in polling against McCaskill, who was considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators, and grumblings began among the GOP that Akin's decision could cost them the Senate.
But Akin persisted, running a scrappy campaign based on grassroots fundraising and an anti-establishment rallying cry that kept the candidate mostly stable in the polls.
Akin went from a low of 38 percent support in one poll, conducted in the days after his comments drew national scrunity, to just a 2-percentage-point deficit in one recent independent poll released last weekend. One Republican internal poll has Akin and McCaskill tied.
Democrats dispute those polls, pointing out that the one putting him within the margin-of-error of McCaskill was conducted by the same pollster that predicted a third-place finish for Akin in the competitive GOP primary, which he eventually won.
McCaskill’s own internals have shown her ahead by double-digits, and the RealClearPolitics average of polls still puts her up by 5 percentage points.
But the new polling is enough to have sparked an infusion of outside money on Akin’s behalf.
Over the past week, outside groups backing Akin have spent nearly double what’s been spent by outside groups for McCaskill, according to data collected by the Center for Responsive Politics.
That includes the launch of a $1 million-buy by Now or Never PAC, a $550,000 buy by Faith Family Freedom Fund and at least $100,000 in ads from America’s Liberty PAC, affiliated with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
Akin’s campaign also launched their own $600,000 buy on Thursday, which followed a nearly $700,000 joint buy from Akin and the Missouri Republican Party.
That expenditure raised eyebrows, as the state party didn’t have enough money to back their portion as of Oct. 17 — and the funds could have only come from a surge in donations over the past week and a half or a transfer from the national party committees.
A spokesman for the Republican National Committee said the funds did not come from them, and the NRSC did not respond to requests for comment. If the money did come from them, it would be a reversal of their original decision to cut off their nominee and back up claims that Akin is competitive in the race.
Akin’s campaign says the challenger has a wider variety of ads on air than McCaskill, though the incumbent senator has a higher volume of ads running, according to a Democratic source that tracks ad buys.
But a late infusion of cash can’t do much for a challenger down in the polls, facing an incumbent at 50 percent support or higher. Akin, however, may be facing the perfect political climate for the spending surge to take effect.
McCaskill, who returned to the campaign trail Wednesday following the death of her mother, has vastly outspent Akin for the majority of the election — her campaign spent $7 million in the third quarter alone, to Akin’s $1.3 million — but she's been unable to gain a double-digit lead on the challenger since the week after his comments broke.
And Mitt Romney has retained a solid lead over President Obama in the state, ahead by double digits in most surveys, an advantage that Missouri Republican strategist Jeff Roe says could be enough to boost Akin to a win on Election Day.
“This is a complete coattail effect,” he said.
“This isn’t exactly an independent decision [from Missouri voters]. If they’re going to send Romney to the White House, why wouldn’t they send a Republican Senator to vote with him?”
The high number of undecideds at this point -- 8 percent in the last poll -- also makes the race ripe for a last-minute spending splurge taking effect.
Rick Tyler, Akin’s senior adviser, said they’re hoping the new investments will give Akin the platform to spread the message he’s been sharing with voters all along.
“This week, not only do we have a very strong message, we have the means to make sure that every Missouri voter has it,” he said.
The campaign is running four positive spots and one attack ad this week, which is part of what Tyler described as the campaign’s goal in the final stretch: “To make [Missouri voters] feel good about voting for Todd.”
McCaskill and Democrats have done all they can over the past two months to make it near-impossible for Missouri voters to feel good about voting for Akin — running multiple negative ads based on his comments — but his support has stayed relatively stable since that initial drop.
And as Roe points out, that effort may have backfired — and may be part of what’s fueling the sudden support for Akin in the last days of his improbable campaign.
“At some point, the Republicans just saw their guy getting his teeth kicked in over nothing, and they just kind of started saying, ‘He might be a sonofabitch, but he’s our sonofabitch,” he said.
Good deal! I hope he pulls well ahead of her.
Me too. I hope he wins decisively just to prove to some FREEPERS here who are very upset that Akin is winning that having principles is a positive and not a negative like some here feel. Still today some FREEPERS on other Akin threads are pissed that Akin continues to show his conservative values. It is sad to see. I hope Akin is forced upon those FREEPERS. I will be thrilled on Tuesday if Akin wins this.
It makes me sick that when a Republican makes a gaffe - it is pounced on by the MSM. When Joe Biden makes a continuous string of gaffes - it gets swept under the rug.
I hope Akin wins this seat - we need it. I hate the MSM and the double standard. Has the MSM put forth the rumor about the NJ Senator yet? I know they’ll say they don’t have facts, but since when has that stopped them with a Republican is involved?
Go Akin!!
If Akin wins it will be his victory and his victory alone. He will have proved that RINOs and the GOPe is not needed to win an election. Because of that it will be a BIG victory for him and a MAJOR defeat for the GOPe.
I should also add that you Freepers who stood by him (and those supporters outside of FR) including the username with “Chip” in it (I cannot recall his Freeper name) will also share in the Akin victory if he wins. It will be your victory as well.
Here’s hoping that the GOP does become the U.S. Senate MAJORITY, for a very long time, and here’s hoping that CONSERVATISM takes over BIG TIME, in both Houses of Congress, in the WH (Please, help to make Mitt Romney, successfully, move, profoundly, to the right, politically, and help Mitt become a very small government conservative, on all of the issues!), and in the courts, too! True conservatism, seriously, needs to dominate in all three branches of government and for a very long time!-Please, and Thank You!
Good! I’m glad he stuck to his guns!!
As I've said before, it's like the soldier in a foxhole sleepily crawling out to take a whizz....wandering around to find a tree, he accidentially sets off a tripwire and the enemy starts shooting at him. A combination of utter terror, experience, and training in him kicks in and he starts charging the enemy machine gun nest....you don't criticize him for screwing up, or shoot him in the back. You lay covering fire and hope he can kill the enemy.
Please, let there be ABSOLUTELY NO MISTAKE HERE.
This was a classic RINO-inspired circular firing squad where most of the so-called ‘GOP’ participated ENTHUSIASTICALLY!!
It appears that the grass roots at home might just pull this one out AFTER ALL!
DESPITE the actions/efforts/pussilaniousness (sp?) of their so-called “leadership”.
GOOD!
McCaskell is proving to be a common thief.
Akin is the type we need in the Senate. Even if the R’s gain control it has to be the right type of R’s. We’re going to need strong, principled conservative leadership in Congress in order to keep Romney in line. He’ll go wobbly if he doesn’t get the right signals and feedback from us as well as Congress.
The Beltway isn’t going to relinquish control easily.
It is about time. I just hope it isn’t a little late and there is enough in the kitty.
Go, Todd, Go.
I have lived in Missouri since 1978. We are run by the DemoRATS in Jeff City, even after we the people have voted repeatedly that we want Obamacare OUT of Missouri, the DemoRATS do NOTHING! McCaskill is a crook and a thief! She was paid for her vote for Obamacare, big time! And here comes a man of God, willing to stand up to her, willing to repent to the nation for a ‘mistake’! We all need to pray for Todd Akin and his family, they are under terrible attacks. He is a good man, everyone we know has voted for him or will be on NOVEMBER 6, 2012!
GOD SAVE OUR AMERICA from more of McCaskill, DemoRATS in JEFF CITY, and the MUSILM minions in Washington DC!
Please Jesus hear our cry and deliver us from our mistakes as a nation! IN JESUS NAME WE PRAY! AMEN!
1.) Missouri went to McCain 2008 after massive spending by Obama and literaly McCain conceding the state.
2.) McCaskill only won in 2006, a great RAT year, thanks to a 3% libertarian turnout.
3.) The TEA Party was born in Missouri. In my county, a TEA Party rally happens on a busy corner every Saturday for the last 4 years!
4.) SIEU has sent counter protestors, sometimes violent, to counter the TEA Party.
5.) In 2010, Missouri voted 70% to repeal OBAMACARE. McCaskill basically called the ballot initiative stupid.
6.) Mitt Romney is up in Missouri by double digits- without any advertising.
7.) Does the GOP really think that a state with a large TEA PARTY that has attracted Libertarians and Independents, that people are going to walk into a voting both, vote for Romney, then vote for McCaskill? Maybe a few RINO's in rich suburbs, but not in the heart of the TEA PARTY.
Akin would (and I hope will) make a great Senator. He owes absolutely nothing to the Republican establishment and will be his own man, free to follow his conservative instincts. He could be a real breath of fresh air in the Senate.
Good news indeed. But it ain’t over, yet! I hope all Conservative freepers keep up the prayers and good thoughts, and I hope all Conservative Missourians get the word and vote out! The Liberal D’rats will cheat, bully and coerce at every chance they can get! Best of luck to everyone.
And still it is a dead heat. Let's hope the influx of funds is well spent and well placed.
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