Posted on 11/02/2012 6:29:11 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Obama took care to irradiate the swing states with his negative attacks on Romney. When the voters in those states saw that Mitt was not a Halloween monster but a pretty nice and reasonable guy, his negative stopped working and the states started falling to Romney.
But in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, the negatives on Romney never ran. The only Romney they saw in these states was the very presentable and attractive one who showed up in the debates. So there was no obstacle to hold them back from voting for Mitt.
Obama’s static dependence on the swing states to constitute a firewall backfired. The firewall became like the French Maginot Line of 1940, easily outflanked. When Romney began to buy ads in the semi-swing states, Obama was slow to respond. I nitially, his campaign dismissed Romney’s ads in Pennsylvania as a bluff intended to draw Obama’s resources away from Ohio. But it was no bluff. Romney’s people realized that 20 votes in Pennsylvania were as good as 18 in Ohio.
And, in this final week, Romney’s campaign and its allied groups are spending $11 million on Pennsylvania ads as opposed to only $2 million for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at dickmorris.com ...
Regarding your last paragraph, this is exactly what happened with the Dixiecrats in the 1960s and was supposed to happen with the Reagan Democrats in the 1980s, but didn’t.
The future demographic realignment will happen along racial and ethnic lines. I expect that Texas and Arizona will be back in the D column within 20 years given the growth of the Hispanic communities there and their now solidifying alignment with the Democrats. Unless by some chance a Republican comes along and shows them the way to Conservatism and away from the identity politics demagaugery the Dems have been seeding them with.
Pennsylvania is the only state that could actually switch because of Hurricane Sandy.
New York and New Jersey were always going to vote for Obama. There has never been any question. How many votes Obama wins these states really makes no difference.
Pennsylvania, however, is close enough to swing. The Philadelphia area that was hardest hit by Sandy is a Democrat stronghold in the state. I can easily see Democrat voters who were never that fired up about voting for Obama anyway not taking the time to vote when they are more concerned about buying food, water and gasoline and cleaning up storm damage.
Regardless of his toe-sucking past, Morris is more often wrong than right when predicting election results. I don't necessarily discount anything he says, but I don't give it much weight either.
I am very afraid that you are right. Although most Hispanics that I know are far more socially and economically conservative than most Democrats, they still seem to be lining up to join the Democrat plantation.
I don’t watch regular TV. I have ROKU attached to my TV and spend all my time watching steaming movies and TV shows... without commercials...smile
Nice. I do too, mostly, Netflix for old stuff and DVR for the new (skipping commercials, of course). I refuse to pay for Hulu Plus because if I pay money for something that's free online I want no ads; they aren't playing along. Oh well, that's what DVRs are for. Of course news and sports have be live, and that's where I see commercials.
We recently got HBO and I discovered the HBO Go app, every original show HBO ever aired all free to stream if you subscribe to their channel. Wow, catching up on The Wire and The Sopranos alone will take months.
I’m in the same general area and can confirm. In fact, I don’t recall a recent election that had more republican signs, not McCain and not Bush.
I think PA. 2012 will look a lot like the Pennsylvania of 2010, not 2008.
-PJ
Obama took care to irradiate the swing states with his negative attacks on Romney. When the voters in those states saw that Mitt was not a Halloween monster but a pretty nice and reasonable guy, his negative stopped working and the states started falling to Romney. But in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, the negatives on Romney never ran. The only Romney they saw in these states was the very presentable and attractive one who showed up in the debates... When Romney began to buy ads in the semi-swing states, Obama was slow to respond. Initially, his campaign dismissed Romney's ads in Pennsylvania as a bluff intended to draw Obama's resources away from Ohio... And, in this final week, Romney's campaign and its allied groups are spending $11 million on Pennsylvania ads as opposed to only $2 million for Obama.Obama would wrap this campaign up if he'd just remind Pennsylvania voters of his war on coal. Whoops! Or the New Black Panthers. Whoops!
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