Dead heat for Romney and Obama in latest Michigan poll (R47/O46)

Fox 2 ^ | 11/4 | Fox 2 Detroit

[FrdmLvr]

That is AWESOME! Has Wayne co. EVER polled for the Republican that you can remember? And it looks like Oakland is swinging back to red as well. If I remember, Oakland went for 0bama in 08 because I remember thinking the old guard conservatives out there must be dying off, being replaced by liberal 30 and 40-somethings moving up the career ladder. Thanks so much for the info, taildragger! You've made my day! :)

Now I'm off to check Channel 2's page.

[Beagle8U]

I’m a yes on 1+5, no on the rest.

[FrdmLvr]

The point I meant to make was that if Wayne and Oakland counties are red, that should pretty much seal it for Romney, if the turnout on Tuesday follows the polls. Because most of outstate Michigan is red.

[Churchillspirit]

I wish Rush was broadcasting today.....he has a way of making sense of all this.

[az_gila]

How can anyone be undecided? I’m in Florida and everywhere I go people are talking about the election, making remarks about how they can’t believe the mess we’re in and what’s wrong with these people that are supporting O. There are people in my neighborhood that I’ve known for years who never talked politics that are actively engaged and determined to oust O.

---

That's good, but I bet they are not part of the “gimme” crowd...::)

[justiceseeker93]

Obomba won [Michigan] by 16 points in 2008.

Don't forget that the McCain campaign pulled out of Michigan early as the MSM was exulting. That had a huge impact on the margin.

Also, the Romney name means a lot in Michigan, especially to older voters who remember Dad favorably.

Looks like Axelrod will be shaving his moustache - but, then again, can you believe anything he says or promises?

[cripplecreek]

2008 was a “historic” election and can’t really be used to predict a trend. Also as you said, there was John McCain’s insulting treatment of Michigan.

Personally I think any republican who acted as if they want our votes would be in a similar position as Romney. After all, Romney didn’t primary particularly well here. (10 points over McCain in 08 vs a tie with Santorum in 2012)

What it really comes down to is the whole state drifting to the right. Even the pro union ballot proposals appear to be losing now.

[ican'tbelieveit]

I have, and your description is dead on: but I only paid 7% taxes, but Romney is a banker and bankers got us into this mess, but women’s reproductive rights, but... ugh. Sickening. The public education system in this country has done a number on our population, they are so damned scared of offending anyone that they stand for nothing.

[madison10]

My county’s eastern side is full of people with Democrat, southern roots with a mix of union thugs on the side. That is sad, but stupid is hard to fix.

[LS]

Pure hunch---no evidence at all---but I do think that at a certain point a bandwagon effect kicks in and some people want to ride the winner. I think MN, MI, PA, even OR are starting to feel this. At the same time, it does depress the other side's vote.

I won't be surprised at all if MI or even MN fall. OR? Yeah.

[justiceseeker93]

Now I am the furthest thing from a conspiracy theorist, but I do find it odd that the one pollster showing a strong Romney lead, which had a R+1 sample, uses the storm as an excuse to "suspend" its daily tracker. And won't post until the day before the election.

I read Gallup's own explanation for its suspension of the daily tracking poll, and I didn't think they were playing any games. It's just that there was too wide a segment of the voting population in a geographically skewed area unavailable because of the storm to participate in the polling that they felt that it would make it impossible to do their usual sampling routine without introducing biases. They judged that they couldn't do any polling up to their standards of accuracy because they couldn't be sampling the whole country equally. Sounds reasonable to me, as far as they go with that.

Now from where do you get the fact that Gallup was using an R+1 sample?

Their record in the past has generally been that, if anything, their poll results seem to favor Democrats more than the eventual election results.

[justiceseeker93]

With CO if he gets either PA or OH, it's over. If he doesn't get PA or OH but gets any one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota, he only gets 10 of the 13. He needs to get one more state to get a path to 270 without PA or OH. Nevada? Iowa? New Hampshire? Any one of them plus Colorado gets it done.

Your electoral math is essentially the same as mine. But Colorado and Michigan alone would do it, because Michigan has 16 EVs. (In contrast, Wisconsin and Minnesota have 10 each.)

[justiceseeker93]

A big rainstorm during the day would be great. Stretching from Saginaw/Flint down to Detroit and across Lake Erie to Cleveland.

Maybe divine intervention? Raining on big Dummy areas and sparing the GOP strongholds?

[justiceseeker93]

I do think that at a certain point a bandwagon effect kicks in and some people want to ride the winner.

I get the feeling that a bandwagon effect set in with the first debate and has been going in Romney's direction ever since. The fact that these previously big Zero states in the upper Midwest are now battlegrounds is just the culmination of it.

[cookcounty]

How can these blue states be so close while the national Rasmussen also says the race is close? Are they calling anybody in Texas???

[sargon]

Polls are worthless at this point — regardless of who they show winning or previous accuracy. All that matters now is turnout, turnout, turnout.

If that's true (and I believe it is) then Romney should win on Tuesday by a decent margin.

There has to be a significant enthusiasm gap in favor of the GOP. It's self-evident.

So, barring outright fraud, Romney wins.

[SunkenCiv]

:’) McCain’s campaign spent money where he wasn’t beaten before he started, and there’s no reason to fault that, although plenty of people around here still bitch about McCain and how he was someway put into the nomination through skullduggery. It’s ridiculous.

We’re very lucky, really, that GWB dismembered him in the 2000 primary season — otherwise we’d probably have wound up with President Gore. Imagine, John McCain tied in Florida, with the Gore fraud machine operating the way it did against the integrity of US democracy? Gore would have been POTUS on 9/11/2001...