Posted on 11/04/2012 6:16:04 AM PST by LittleSpotBlog
GOTV or it's four more of Obama-Biden malaise.
Vote & drag 'right thinking' people to the polls with you.
49-49 (which is 51-49) but more going out on an unsupported limb by polling with so much of the US still impossible to contact IMO.
It’s interesting you don’t hear about that much lately.
I don’t have a land line and was contacted several times by pollsters. I refused and hung up, but I’m politically very active.
I confess I even thought of answering all questions as though I was totally in the tank for Obama. But I couldn’t lie, so I just refused to be polled.
People with too much time on their hands tend to do polls, and most of them are democrats. And I would not put it past them to say they are republicans. I’ve heard such people call in to conservative talk radio.
Would you be kind enough to provide a link? I found a page for Free Republic on Facebook, but was not able to see any comments or posts of any kind.
Do I have to "Like" first?
My analysis still shows a total blowout and yes the media will use the margin of error to justify their propaganda on behalf of the Obama campaign.
Looking at the raw data over at:http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.
Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:
Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%
Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%
Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%
So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%
I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.
The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.
So let look at turnout models to see where we are at:
If the dems have a 37-33% advantage over the R’s, Romney wins 50.5% to 47.7% (the other 1.8% to third parties).
If the dems has a 2% turnout advantage (36-34%) Romney wins 51.4% to 46.8%
If the turnout is even (IOW the dems doing better than 2010)Romney wins 52.3% to 45.9%.
If the turnout model is +1% R as per Gallup Romney wins 52.7% to 45.5%.
The R’s are polling much higher in the voter enthusiasm/intensity measurement than dems this year.
This election will be a blowout and the bad assumptions in the polling is also impacting the calculations of the Senate races, get out and vote, the rest will take care of itself.
BTW if the turnout model matches 2008 (D 39, R 32, I 31): Romney wins the popular vote 50.3-49.9. This is the cliffhanger the pundits are ‘selling’ in the media to hype the ratings.
Does anyone believe that the turnout for the Dems will match 2008?
I don’t and neither should you.
Ignore the polls, watch the action and the rhetoric.
Obama and Romney are both playing on mostly BLUE state turf. Romney is running the sort of campaign winning camps run, optimistic, hopeful, bland. Obama is running the sort of campaign losers run, nasty, desperate and shrill.
Obama is not acting like a candidate whose internal polling is showing him winning.
Per Leto
My analysis still shows a total blowout and yes the media will use the margin of error to justify their propaganda on behalf of the Obama campaign.
Looking at the raw data over at:http://polls2012.blogspot.com/
The samples of all the national polls include 30,000 voters. This is a huge sample size so the margin of error should be very small.
Looking across the %’s across the 30,000 raw numbers polled we see the following:
Obama leading among dems, 91.15%, 7.62%, Other/Undecided 1.23%
Romney leading among R’s, 94.47%, 4.74%, Other/Undecided .79%
Romney leading among Indies: 47.40%, 38.13%. Other/Undecided 14.16%
So we see the following Romney is leading among crossover voters by 2.88% and he is leading among Independents by 9.57%
I make the following assumptions to simplify. Independents will comprise 30% of the total vote. Among the 14.16% of undecided independents 6% will go to third party candidates.
The rest of the independents will break towards the challenger by a 70/30% ratio (a little under the historical norm.
So let look at turnout models to see where we are at:
If the dems have a 37-33% advantage over the R’s, Romney wins 50.5% to 47.7% (the other 1.8% to third parties).
If the dems has a 2% turnout advantage (36-34%) Romney wins 51.4% to 46.8%
If the turnout is even (IOW the dems doing better than 2010)Romney wins 52.3% to 45.9%.
If the turnout model is +1% R as per Gallup Romney wins 52.7% to 45.5%.
The R’s are polling much higher in the voter enthusiasm/intensity measurement than dems this year.
This election will be a blowout and the bad assumptions in the polling is also impacting the calculations of the Senate races, get out and vote, the rest will take care of itself.
BTW if the turnout model matches 2008 (D 39, R 32, I 31): Romney wins the popular vote 50.3-49.9. This is the cliffhanger the pundits are ‘selling’ in the media to hype the ratings.
Does anyone believe that the turnout for the Dems will match 2008?
I don’t and neither should you.
I don’t know how to post a link from FB but will see if I can find someone who can.
There are a couple of pages. You want to google free frpublic on Facebook and it will take you to the official page. I was w ring: piece is not written by Jeff. I have joined and get posts to my email every day and Jeff provided the link from a Bill Spretino. Try going to FB and putting Bill’s name onThe search box.
I love looking at the poll internals so I can see what games the MSM is playing. The number tell me the CU profs are correct in their economic analysis.
However to your point, Yes seeing the body language of the candidates and where they are playing is very telling Obama and Biden are acting very angry, not like people who think they are winning.
Romney is acting like he knows he is going to win and already looking to reach out to unify the country, he is talking about the future instead of revenge like Obama.
The important about whether the election is a blowout of just a close win goes to mandate and the outcome of the Senate races. We could be looking at a +5-6 Senate seats, this is huge especially if we can get more conservative Senators like the Tea Party guys in office.
Hey Wilbur
Hey Ed
Say Ed... what do you think of this latest nbc/wsj poll showing obama wins in a squeaker?
“HORSEFEATHERS”
LLS
LLS
“The polling for the presidential election between Carter and Reagan is too close to call”
LLS
LLS
It is going to be a loooooting night in some areas.
LLS
Ahh yes, the Marcia Brady “Something suddenly came up” approach.
I mean they were like 15th (Marist) and 13th (NBC/WSJ) last time. Using their own math, combining forces in the interim has them on the path to 28th place this time around.
You're wrong.
"(After his ridiculous 311EV call for Kerry in 2004...) While admitting that he was mistaken, Zogby did not admit any possible flaws in his polling methods, insisting that his predictions were all within the margin of error. While on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, he said he felt that Kerry would win due to the undecided voters. Despite his personal prediction, Zogby's final poll showed Bush with a one point lead over Kerry. Zogby later released a "Mea culpa" in which he stated "I will do better next time: I will just poll, not predict."
"It sure wouldn’t be the first time and won’t be the last."
Ok.
Thank you for the link! That article was a real pleasure to read. Articulate, cogent and smart.
So how do you square his one point margin for Bush with his 311 electoral vote prediction for Kerry without agreeing with me?
I was referring to the top line call and you simply have proven my point.
LoL only if they take a perfect poll. With this LSDNBC GIGO sauced polling, the MOA increases significantly.
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