Why the Polls are Wrong

Breitbart ^ | November 5, 2012 | John Nolte

[trappedincanuckistan]

While every single poll on the planet predicts Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage of three to eleven points, the latest Rasmussen survey of party affiliation taken throughout October shows that Republicans enjoy a huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election.

[Intolerant in NJ]

...Republicans enjoy a huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election...we don't need no stinkin' polls with this info and a few modest assumptions alone - population breaks down 36 reps, 30 'rats, 34 indies; no particular turnout advantage for either party, so both sides turn out their prorportion of the population; 91% of reps vote for Romney, 89% of 'rats vote for Obama, indies break a modest 55-45 percent for Romney - simple math gives an outcome win of 54% to 45% for Romney - okay, knock off a few points for third party votes, say it's 52-45 - still a landslide.......

Blazing fast....

[gemoftheocean]

I LITERALLY do not understand people who think they are ‘cute’ by telling a pollster they are voting for Obama when they are not. This inflates Obama’s numbers. Believe it or not, there really are some people who think if their candidate doesn’t have a shot, or feel they are overwhelmed by numbers, they will NOT go out and vote. You could end up discouraging Romney voters. “oh, well, Zero has a 5 point lead, and I’m sure he’ll win this state — it’s raining like hell — no sense in getting pneumonia I guess I’ll just stay home.” Then Obama wins by 1 fricken vote. so frankly, thanks for nothing.