(Let's do this for Todd Beamer who gave his all for the country he loved)
Posted on 11/06/2012 9:40:14 AM PST by OneVike
(Let's do this for Todd Beamer who gave his all for the country he loved)
Looking at the places a candidate visits on the last days of a campaign can give clues as to what the internal numbers tell them about their chances of winning an election. Whenever a person throws their hat in the ring, they start by convincing their base to support them. So at first, they will spend a lot of time getting acquainted with the voters who are most likely to vote for them. As the campaign matures into the election cycle, they will spend less and less time giving speeches or visiting their base supporters and more time in areas where they are less recognizable.
Every candidate will have their own pollsters who keep them up to speed as to where they need to spend their time and money. As a candidate gets voters where they are less known to begin thinking about them, they will begin to spend more time and money in that area to win them over. All the while a candidate will continue to go to areas where their pollsters tell them the voters are responding positively to their message. The more the voters of different areas where the candidate has stumped become supporters of them, the less time they will spend there. All the while spending more time in places they have yet to convince the voters to support them.
In the last weeks of any campaign, the candidates will be seen more and more in the areas that have the most undecided voters and in the areas that are considered their opponent's stronghold, to win over more voters. As a result, the voters who live in areas where the candidate is the strongest should not expect to see them again, unless they live where the candidate will be holding their election night rally..
That being said, if a candidate's pollsters inform them that they have not locked up their base, they will be forced to make the rounds to convince their most strident supporters to get out and vote for them. In the last days of an election, the last thing any candidate wants to learn is that they need to spend valuable time and money convincing their base to vote for them.
Which brings us to this year's presidential race between Barrack Obama and Mitt Romney. We are being told by pollsters that their numbers point out that the race for the White House is a virtual tie, and the swing states are all up for grabs. But we are actually witnessing one candidate losing his base, and the other infiltrating his opponents base. The images below are screen shots of state maps from the 2008 final vote tally of counties in Philadelphia, Ohio, and Wisconsin. You will notice that I have highlighted the counties of each map to distinguish which ones contain the cities of Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Madison. Of these cities' counties, only Allegheny County was close. However, the city was carried by Obama by almost 70%.
So considering that the three cities in question are Democrat strongholds, it makes one wonder why Obama spent the day before the election in Madison WI to excite his base if the polls are close? Also, why is Mitt Romney going to two of Obama's strongest bases if the election is so close? This tells me that Romney has been widening his lead over Obama by stealing votes from his base while Obama is trying to stop the bleeding.
Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Wisconsin
Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Pennsylvania
Click on image to get more information on the 2008 election in Ohio
It really should not come as a surprise to anyone that Romney is pulling away from Obama. There are a couple of important statistics that the pollsters are not considering in their final analysis of the election. First, we have the voter enthusiasm gap that favors Republicans. As early as mid July, a CBS/NYT poll had Republicans with a huge edge in voter enthusiasm over Democrats, 49% to 27%. Even Independents, who went big for Republicans in 2010 were more enthused in July, 29%, than Democrats were. Pews final poll (below) shows that 76% of Republicans are definitely voting compared to only 62% of Democrats. That means almost 40% of Democrats are not registered or will not vote, and that is why Obama has to return to Madison and other strongholds to convince his base to vote.
Then there is the party affiliation that the Republicans hold an edge in over the Democrats, but pollsters have been ignoring it in favor of Democrats in their polls. Rasmussen's final poll, shows how Republicans hold a 5.8% advantage over Democrats in what party the voters identify themselves with regardless their party registration. So when you read a poll like CNN's that has a plus 11% advantage in Democrats surveyed, you know they have rigged their poll to favor Obama. So if you take their poll that has the race tied 49% to 49% and adjust it by 15.8% in favor of Romney, the real poll from CNN would be Romney 56.9% to 41.1% for Obama. Now that is a huge difference, but it does not fall in line with the lefts mantra.
Then I offer the evidence from the polls that shows many black Americans are not excited about Obama any longer, especially since he embraced the pro gay agenda. Like Pastor Phillip Goudeaux of Sacramento who supported Obama in 2008, but is now actively campaigning against him. He's not the only black Pastor who is telling his congregation to either vote for Romney, or don't vote at all. This is a big problem that the Democrat party refuses to acknowledge exists.
According to a report released in July by the Public Religion Research Institute, 18% of black Americans believe that the same-sex marriage issue is so critical that it sways how or if they will vote at all. It is easy to see why Obama is finding it difficult to get his base excited to vote for him. Think about the disaster the Democrat party will face if 18% of the black community either votes for Romney or doesn't vote at all. If just 10% refuse to vote, it will lead to a Romney landslide and probably a pickup of another 30 seats in the House, along with enough Senate seats to comfortably control legislation with little trouble from the Democrats.
There are other reasons Obama and the Democrats are in trouble, like the polls that have Independents going for Romney by 14% to 22% depending on the poll you read. How about the young under 25 vote that helped carry Obama to the White house, they are dispirited and will not be showing up. They really don't like living with Mom and Dad, and no great speech is going to convince them that $4 to $5 per gallon of gas is a good thing. I could go on and on about the reasons Mitt Romney will defeat Obama today, but I have already written much more than I intended. So let me sum it all up by stating that Mitt Romney is going to defeat Barrack Obama by a margin that is much too large for the left to steal.
Oh, my call?
Romney: 55%
Obama 44%
Johnson1%
House:
Republicans will pick up 15 to 25 seats
Senate:
Republicans pick up 7 seats maybe 9
The great thing about this election is that it will be two-fer. Along with defeating Obama, Nancy Pelosi will resign her seat, because she knows it will be a cold day in hell before she is ever allowed to hold power in Washington again.
Where does this come from?
Why would she stand for election and then immediately resign?
I want you to say that out loud, three times.
When you quit laughing, come back and tell me what's wrong with this picture.
You caught that, huh? As soon as I hit “enter” I went, “D’oh!”.
“I believe Romney to be an “A” personality...to leave no stone unturned and to over-achieve in every endeavor he undertakes.”
He’s also very smart. Many A types just like to aggressively bully their way through things without much thought.
“Where does this come from?
Why would she stand for election and then immediately resign?”
If this prediction holds true, or even close to true, and Democrats are totally wiped from any and all meaningful positions of power, she may not be safe from her own party members to walk the halls of Congress...
I can see her resigning due to the hate and and anger she feels from te Tea Party members of Congress and how it is now a hostile work environment.
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