Posted on 11/08/2012 4:57:01 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
So much for gut feeling.
After correctly predicting the results in 49 of the 50 states that have been called in the U.S. election (Florida remains too close to call), Nate Silver, the statistician behind the popular FiveThirtyEight blog, woke on Wednesday to find himself the poster child of what is sure to be a new data-driven approach to politics.
While Obama was declared the winner of the election, Silver won the polling race. Television anchors from Rachel Maddow on the left-leaning MSNBC, to Bret Baier on the right-leaning Fox News, praised his accuracy. A comedian on Twitter called him "The Emperor of Math." Silver's publicist said he had been so inundated with requests she had been unable to reach him.
(Excerpt) Read more at mobile.reuters.com ...
I just posted it. Tell me when a RINO has won nationally in the last twenty years? That's 5 election cycles!
My Goodness you people are blind as bats! I would venture to bet Gingrich would have won.
What is needed is another Great Awakening. America’s moral state was also highly perverted before these societal and spiritual events.
A remnant of godly people remain in this nation. Whether they are enough to keep us from experiencing judgement. I pray we do.
In Mississippi, even adjusting for the population increase from 2004 to 2012, Romney got 2% more votes than Bush did in 2004.
How is that remotely possible if Conservatives are staying home?
No, Morris was wrong. Everyone who sat in front of their computer imagining what people would do on election day was wrong. It wasn't just conservatives. If you Google around, you'll find blogs from liberals predicting that Obama would take Arizona. Yeah, they actually said that.
The people who were right were the people who actually called a representative sample of voters and asked them what they were going to do on election day. I know this whole "asking people what they think" thing might seem like some kind of wacky, far-fetched approach out of Star Trek, but it turns out that it works better than the Dick Morris' approach of "guessing."
Every poll aggregator made roughly the same prediction. Did they all have Obama's internal polls?
Dems use many ways to fraud the vote. The only votes they fraud are the President and the Senate.
They do not care about the House right now. In fact, they like the GOP in charge of the House this time. They can blame them for everything and whip them around to make the whole country hate them. If the House doesn’t do what Obama wants, he ignores them and pulls out the Executive Order pad, calls the MSM, and they put the word out that the GOP is partisan and doesn’t care about the country. They figure next midterm, the hated Tea Baggers will get the boot. Heh Whatta country. LOL
If they send some bus of fraudsters to the polls. They are only told to mark the dem president and senate on their ballots.
I am guessing here, but this seems to be the way things are working. This is the reason the 2010 results meant nothing.
“I don’t see the remotest scrap of evidence that this is true.”
2008 McCain total votes: 59,948,240
2012 Romney total votes: 57,821,399 (>99% precincts reporting)
Are there via “natural attrition” or some other demographic change over the past 4 years 2.1 million fewer conservatives? Or, did many conservatives who voted for McCain switch to the Marxist? I don’t think so. For whatever reason, many people (more than 2 million!) who voted for McCain did not vote for Romney. Most confusing: Rasmussen just this week described self-identified Republicans outnumber Democrats by 6 percentage points. Poor conservative turnout has to be included in the list of many reasons for Romney’s loss.
I'm not disputing Morris was wrong...I didn't convey my thought correctly...I'm disputing why Romney lost. And it was simply because enough conservatives did not vote for him. You can deny all you want too,but nationally RINOS are losers!
Thank you for pointing this out. This is exactly what lost NH. We are a fiscally conservative socially liberal state now. ALL the MEN running for major offices lost because the dems promoted the lies that they did not care about womans issues. We lost in NH because we did not win WHITE WOMEN.
Unlike other states we do not have much hispanic or black population. We are better educated on average. We do not have a big welfare state. Our unemployment is lower than the rest of the northeast. We are NOT a big union state. YET, WE GOT OUR BUTTS KICKED. We even lost the NH state house to the dems this year.
IF we want to ever win a national election again we need to stop putting up candidates that they can fear monger us with a womans right to choose. It is a personal issue. Woman do not want anyone telling them what they can do with their own bodies. Especially young women. We need to take this issue off the table.
We also need to stop blaming the media. We all know the MSM is biased. It always will be. However, why didn’t Romney go David Letterman, The Tonight Show ,etc? We need to appeal to younger voters. Did RR spend any time on college campuses?
We need to appeal to Hispanics. This voting block is growing. As they grow, they are becoming wealthier. They have good family values. They are willing to work hard to get ahead. I recently bought a Toyota pickup from a hispanic immigrant. He grew up in Mass. His parents probably came here illegally. I did not ask. He worked 6 days a week, about 10+ hours a day. He was making about 100K. He was married with a new baby. I tried to hire him to work at my business because I was so impressed with him. This is the type of person that belongs in the Republican party. Yet, I would bet if he voted, he probably voted dem.
We NEED to bring these folks into the Republican Party. If we do not, put a fork in us were toast.
How is that remotely possible if Conservatives are staying home?
Because independents are voting! Romney was up +18 with them going in. Please, understand, rino's lose Nationally it's completely evident now, especially after this last election. Conservatives do NOT vote for rino's. Is that not evident to you? Obama voters came out more than expected and conservative sat out more than expected.
How is that remotely possible if Conservatives are staying home?
Because independents are voting! Romney was up +18 with them going in. Please, understand, rino's lose Nationally it's completely evident now, especially after this last election. Conservatives do NOT vote for rino's. Is that not evident to you? Obama voters came out more than expected and conservative sat out more than expected.
Thanks for providing those stats! I knew I had seen them, I just was too lazy to go look for them.
Oh stop it. Sounds like you are burying your head in the sand. Romney ended up running a pretty decent campaign and he become a fairly solid candidate. The truth is demographics are changing so rapidly that Ronald Reagan might not have been able to win today. We have more and more minorities voting Democratic in such massive numbers it is getting near impossible to overcome in a national election.
We are going to have to tailor our message increasingly to appeal to Hispanics, Asians, etc. I hate identity politics, but it works. We are going to have to do it going forward.
The conservative movement is going to have to completely separate itself from the Tom Tancredo's of the world. We don't have to be for amnesty and freebies, but we are going to have to change how we talk about these issues so we don't alienate the fastest growing demographics in the country.
You don't have evidence. What you have is a plausible theory as to why conservatives might not bother to vote.
You don't actually have evidence that conservatives didn't vote. I voted for Barr in 2008 (I was in Texas). This time, in Missouri, I didn't want to take any chances, so I voted for Romney. I didn't want to, but I did. From what I've seen on FR, lot's and lot's of committed conservatives did. The evidence is that conservatives had good turnout, but liberals had better turnout.
Yup, pretty much. There seem to be a lot of folks on our side that just can't face the truth. Just being more conservative is not going to solve our problem. We have to face that demographics are getting away from us and begin tailoring our message to a more libertine, more "brown" audience. We don't need to abandon our principles, but we do need to re-consider what policies to emphasize and how we talk about these things. We just can't go on alienating three quarters of Hispanics, Asians and young people. That has to stop now.
Jeepers creepers, any idiot can aggregate polls and predict winners. Silver is only right if the polls are right. The pollsters deserve the credit.
And as a math person, I’m highly annoyed at the implication that if I think Silver is overrated then I don’t get math.
This is another misunderstanding from the polling this year: party ID is fluid. A lot of those "independents" are actually Tea Partiers who in years past would have just said they were Republicans. Look at how many people on FR voted for Romney, but would not call themselves Republicans (they would answer "independent" if surveyed).
People also change their self-identification. Look at the number of Freepers who would have identified as Republican last week who are now declaring themselves staunchly independent.
Thinking that "party ID" was some kind of fixed measurement is the #1 mistake that "Unskewed Polls" made.
Your right -- and the pollsters got no credit. Critics of Silver were claiming that he was wrong, in part, because the polls were wrong. They weren't.
I agree with you 100% woodbutch. We got to drop the holier than thow horseshit when it comes to abortion or the batshit biblethumping act when it comes to gays.Shut up an let god sort em out.
There are different way to combat this stuff with out the moronic statements of Akin and Murdock that dragged Mitt down.We can run on a personal responsibilty platform without shoving the other stuff in their face.
Its a different America today.
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