Skip to comments.Study Finds Sea Level Rise was 60 Percent Higher Than UN Projection
Posted on 11/28/2012 4:10:39 PM PST by NormsRevenge
According to NBC News, a newly released peer-reviewed study has concluded that sea levels between 1993 and 2011 rose by 3.2 millimeters per year. This number is nearly 60 percent more than the 2-millimeter annual projection made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change over the same time period. The disparity between the two numbers raises a point that the projections for the upcoming decades could also be too low and that sea level could rise much more than current estimates predict.
Here are some facts and details about the new study and what it could mean for upcoming climate reports:
* The new study entitled "Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011" was a collaboration between three researchers: Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, Grant Foster of the consulting firm Tempo Analytics in Maine, and Anny Cazenave of the Laboratory of Geophysics and Spatial Oceanography Studies in France
* The study entitled has been published in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters and was presented at U.N. climate change conference in Qatar, which will run until Dec. 7, noted Reuters.
* The IPCC's most recent report was issued in 2007 and projected that sea level could rise between 18 and 59 centimeters this century, but Rahmstorf, lead author of the new study, estimates that sea level rise would be between 50 centimeters to a meter.
* The Huffington Post reports that the new study had five more years of data and utilized satellite technology, which offers a broader picture than tide gauges. Additionally, it analyzed the relationship between sea level and temperature, which is a more sophisticated analysis method.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
LOL, you stole my thunder before the first post! What about all those islanders hanging out at 3.2mm above sea level?! We doomed!
Environmental Research Letters
Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011
OMG The beach will be gone!
No need for Beach vacation this coming summer!!!!!
There are 25.4 mm in one inch.
The un is run by criminal enemies of the USA and our government wants to give them control of this country...they should all be prosecuted.
They have never explained where all the water would come from to raise the sea levels this much.
Where's Noah when you need him?
By the nature of what our decrepit little beach house sits on (SAND)....I’d say the oceans rise and fall ALL the time..sheesh...these people are idiots.
Oh, they've got federally funded explanations.
Its gay issues, gender issues, racial issues, environmental issues, social and economic justice issues and NOTHING else.
Regarding the dissemination of information they attempt NOTHING else.
So THAT’S where all the rain went.
Maybe we should stop pumping money into global warming pseudoscience and work on efficient desalinization and irrigation techniques instead. Or hasn’t Al Gore made enough off this scam yet?
I am more amazed every day by the fact the US news media now exists for no other reason than to promote leftwing causes.
It matches the bulk of educators in many of our “finest’ institutions of hugher indoctrination uhhh higher edukation, yaknow.
Coincidence or is global varming frying liberals brain cells?
I need to do a study,, got dough?
...the 47-percenters only see news clips in light of percentages.... remember this is a 60 percent variance....... Think about this in terms of distance between your finger and the spinning blade of a table saw...
It was warmer 9,000 years ago and the seas were about 20 to 30 feet higher than today. When the next ice goes into full effect (should start any time now) the seas will drop down to 460 to 500 feet, at the edge of the continental shelf, like it has done in the past.
There is no such thing as Y2K or Glowbull Warming! this is all a bunch of Beeee-Esssss Hooey It is as big a hoax as Glowbull Cooling was in the 1970s! I don’t know ANYONE who voted for Obama, and I don’t know anyone who believes in Glowbull Warming, and I am in Los Angeles county!
I thought Obama said something to the effect that the rise of the oceans would begin to slow under his leadership?
Another failed campaign promise!
People are getting taller.
They have never explained where all the water would come from to raise the sea levels this much.
And, why is it that the tide line on all the tourist beaches is exactly the same as it was in the 1920s? (Look at the photos in the hotel bars.)
Maybe the earth is shrinking.
“OMG The beach will be gone!
No need for Beach vacation this coming summer!”
I have spent the last four years living on a beach, with my front door being about 100 ft from high tide.
I guess if I live another 200 years I may notice a problem.
Has anyone noticed what the sun has been doing this year?
Suggest everyone on FR check “Watts up with that” web site weekly to keep up with the real status of “Climate Change”
Don’t post the TRUTH, Liberals can’t take that!
3.2 mill = 1/8 inch....just to give you an idea how stupid they are
I( read 34 books that deal with Glowbull Warming and I am totally convinced that it is just a Great Big Hoax
Does this mean we can raise the Mississipi up a bit?
AS it has done in the pat. Watch your gammar young man!
We should mine the sea floor to make room for the excess water.
Drill a BIG hole and drain some of it to the center of the Earth. What could POSSIBLY go wrong?;)
The oceans didn’t rise.
The land beneath subsided.
The earth is shrinking! Oh, NO! We’re all gonna DIE!
And THAT is the level of intellectual curiosity the “global climate change” alarmists are operating at.
Be more afraid of the apocalypse that is predicted for December 21, 2012, according to the Mayan calendar.
The poles will reverse, gravity will disappear, and we will all be flung off into space.
Who took the measurements. AL GORE. Hint to the writer of this article. Quoting PUFFINGTON HOST and the IPCC regarding anything to do with the CLIMATE CHANGE SCAM will not go very far unless it is read by DIMWITS.
I’m not worried, I’m sittin here in my Den wearing my life jacket. :)
I’ll hold on to the earth ground outside my condo to keep from being flung off the earth from the centripetal force. That’s safe and logical, right?
If all this rising of water level is going on, why are the Great Lakes dropping so much. You’d think they’d benefit from a bit of the run off from the Arctic ice. What a huge crock of horse ice.
Evidence of rising oceans not visible from sea level. Requires satellites and fancy formulas to create proof.
Put a paper bag over your head, lie on the floor, and chant “42”.....
Most of the glaciers in the world are growing and the ice in the Antarctic is way up.
They gave it away too quickly. Whenever they use the expression “peer reviewed” anymore, it is a major red flag that it is a totally bogus fabrication.
“Peer review” died an ignoble death in MMGW when it turned out that the “peer reviews” being used in many reports were “incestuous”.
This means if say, there are six insiders, three of them will write a paper, with one of the three as the “lead researcher”. Then the other three do the “peer review” and give it an ‘A++’ grade. Then they rotate.
One of the “peer reviewers” from the last paper becomes the “lead researcher” in the next paper, etc.
These “mutual admiration societies” can crank out huge numbers of bogus papers that all agree with and support each other. And by publishing so much, it appears that they are “top researchers” in their field.
It took a long time for this Lysenkoism to be unmasked, but now that it has, their technique has been compromised, though they are even too dumb to stop using it.
Lies brought to you by the very same people that appointed Libya and China to the Human Rights Commission.
And are we to believe our lying eyes and common sense or the sainted global warming priests of pseudo-science?
Of course, the sad fact is, these are not scientific studies, not just because they aren’t intended to be — they are also unverified claims; and in the past, each time the global warming demagogues have made a claim, real scientists have studied whatever it was, and found it to be false. The “oceans warming at depth” (something physically impossible anyway, short of a volcano on the ocean floor; ocean waters get colder and carry more non-water molecules with depth) lie which was done to cover up the fact that there had been no change in the normal natural fluctuation of the climate (the lie was, the excess heat was being stored in the depths and would eventually emerge and bite us in the ass) was studied, even though impossible, and was found to be a lie — and yet, it reemerged in the past year or so, because the so-called journalists don’t do their job. That latter fact is in part due to the fact that so many of them are pushing an agenda.
The new methods involve filtering out noise from the data produced by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) spacecraft, sent into orbit with the aim of finding out just how much ice is melting from the world's ice sheets and glaciers. Such water then runs off into the sea, providing one of the main potential drivers of sea level rise - which is itself perhaps the main reason to worry about climate change.
"GRACE data contain a lot of signals and a lot of noise. Our technique learns enough about the noise to effectively recover the signal, and at much finer spatial scales than was possible before," explains professor Frederik Simons of Princeton uni. "We can 'see through' the noise and recover the 'true' geophysical information contained in these data. We can now revisit GRACE data related to areas such as river basins and irrigation and soil moisture, not just ice sheets."
Simons and his colleague Christopher Harig tried their new methods out on GRACE data covering the Greenland ice sheet, which is of particular interest as the rest of the Arctic ice cap floats on the sea and so cannot contribute directly to sea level rise by melting. Meanwhile the Antarctic ice cap is actually getting bigger, so Greenland is probably the major worry.
According to a Princeton statement highlighting the new research:
While overall ice loss on Greenland consistently increased between 2003 and 2010, Harig and Simons found that it was in fact very patchy from region to region.
In addition, the enhanced detail of where and how much ice melted allowed the researchers to estimate that the annual acceleration in ice loss is much lower than previous research has suggested, roughly increasing by 8 billion tons every year. Previous estimates were as high as 30 billion tons more per year.
The rate of loss of ice from Greenland is estimated at 199.72 plus-or-minus 6.28 gigatonnes per year. So the possible acceleration of losses is only barely larger than the margin of error in the readings: it's very difficult to tell the supposed loss curve from a straight line.
In other words the possible acceleration in ice losses is barely perceptible: it may not really be happening at all. Similar results were seen not long ago in GRACE data for central Asian mountain glaciers, another suggested source for sea-level rises. If the Greenland ice losses aren't accelerating, there's no real reason to worry about them. According to the Princeton statement: At current melt rates, the Greenland ice sheet would take about 13,000 years to melt completely, which would result in a global sea-level rise of more than 21 feet (6.5 meters). Put another way, in that scenario we would be looking at 5cm of sea level rise from Greenland by the year 2130: a paltry amount. Authoritative recent research drawing together all possible causes of sea level rise bears this out, suggesting maximum possible rise in the worst case by 2100 will be 30cm. More probably it will be less, and there will hardly be any difference between the 20th and 21st centuries in sea level terms.
The new GRACE research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Details of the computer code can be found here.
New York had a sheet of ice over it a mile thick during the last ice age, and the Sahara Desert was once ocean bottom. We were touring Sequoia National Park recently and that was also once ocean bottom, they told us there. I think the earth is a dynamic creation that is ever changing, earthquakes, volcanoes, storms... this is the way it was meant to be. We can no more change or alter the climate than we can wish ourselves taller!
I was thinking the other day about fountains and swimming pools, that get drained after anyone drowns in them. People drown in the ocean, and also people are killed by sharks, so shouldn’t we just Drain the Ocean already LOL
Hee hee I love that comment!
If it is rising I suspect it’s not water flowing in thats doing it but what the water brings with it. The Mississippi alone dumps an average of 159 million tons of sediment a year into the ocean, add all the other rivers across the world plus streams and erosion and thats going to displace alot of water. I know the same effect plays hell on my stock ponds and I have to dredge them out every so often.