Posted on 01/22/2013 11:31:53 AM PST by Dave346
Turnout is highest since 1999. Netanyahu is favored to win his 3rd term as PM.
I don’t know if it’s quite the drubbing some are portraying it as.
In 2009 LIkud, Israel Beiteinu and Shas got a combined 53, with Likud and Beiteinu combining for 42 and Shas for 11.
Tonight it looks like Likud Beiteinu, Jeiwsh Home and Shas will combine for around 53-56, pretty much the same total.
Likud and Beiteinu do appear to have dropped at the expense of Jewish Home.
but Overall the total of the Right bloc of Likud, Beiteinu, Shas, Jewish Home, and UTJ has around the same # of seats theu had last time.
Now the right bloc is projected to win 64 seats. The numbers keep improving from the exit polls!
The soldiers’ vote which leans Right is counted last, so expect the Likud and Jewish Home’s seats to go up somewhat.
All in all its not a landslide win but it looks like a mandate for another Likud-led government.
Every one expected Netanyahu to be re-elected and it looks like Likud dodged a silver bullet. I’m happy with the latest results. Its looking good!
So in 2009 the right bloc (Likud, Beiteinu, Shas, UTJ, Jewish Home, and and the National Union) had 65 seats.
In 2013 the same parties (albeit in a slightly different configuration)apparently have 64 seats and possibly more by the time all the votes are counted.
What a collapse by Netanyahu and the right.
And it’s not like this guy Lapid is some far-left dreamer. He does appear to less belicose on Iran, but vis-a-vis the Palestinians he’s pretty much well within the mainstream, if not a bit to the right. He wants to retain most settlements, keep Jerusalem undivided, and is against the right of return. That’s very similar to Netanyahu’s position, if not virtually identical. I don’t know enough about his domestic platform to really comment.
But you read some articles and pundits and you’d think Bibi and the right totally imploded and had Dems 2010-style drubbing.
At the end of the day, they’ll likely end up right where they started. Maybe disappointing that they didn’t increase their seats, but not some huge collapse or anything.
Imagine how much PAIN they’re feeling at Reuters that Bibi was reelected. (ALMOST as much as I felt in Nov)
The exit polls apparently interviewed left-wing voters as they left the polls - which is confirmation bias.
About 57% of the vote is in as of 2:00 AM and its gonna be a long night.
Panic in the Likud was overwrought. The polls for the last two weeks were right on the mark that the Likud would stabilize around 34-35 seats.
Carter’s war on Jews...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKBdP2D3pqI
Will still be interesting to see if he reaches out to Lapid. Lapid+Bennett and he wouldn’t need the religious parties. Although he’d have two young guys clearly angling for the top post someday soon. But it may be better to have both of them close and under his control that have Lapid out there freelancing in the opposition. Plus, Shas and UTJ are more natural Likud allies and the party will definitely need them in future knessests, you don’t want to permanently alienate them.
A wider coalition with Lapid and possibly Livni may be more stable and could be the statesmanlike act Bibi seems to go for.
Will be interesting to see what he ends up doing.
JPost is now saying that Army radio is now reporting that Likud-Beteynu is “on track” for 33 seats. In the last election, Likud-B took 27 seats.....
So how is this a “bruising” for Netanyahu?? Somebody please explain. Sure the new left party Yesh Atid won 18-19 seats, but left-leaning Kadima had a catastrophic collapse, will be lucky to retain 2 seats.
Its a gain of four seats. They may win a fifth by morning.
The exit polls skewed Left and all the center-left parties are losing seats and they’re going somewhere.
Netanyahu will probably wake up in the morning a very happy man!
Typically, media reports before all the facts are in. The ‘bruising’ comment was probably just wishful thinking on Reuters’ part.
In the prior government Likud and Beteynu ran separately and won 42 seats.
Because they ran on a joint ticket this time the numbers really aren’t comparable.
80 percent of the votes are counted now....
Looks like Bibi is first going to Shas and then to UTJ. This is after saying, in his post-election speech, there must be more equitable sharing of the burden of defense. With 50 percent of the actual vote tallied, Likud + Jewish Home + Shas + UJT would mean about 64 seats. I think Bibi would also like a center party.
I must correct myself, with 75 percent of the vote counted, Likud + Jewish Home + Shas + UTJ is only 60! This is because the most recent tabulations favored the Arab parties and also put Kadima over the threshold (2 percent). We’ll see how this plays out, but I doubt all three center parties (Lapid’s, Livni’s and Kadima) would agree to a coalition with the Left block and the Arab block. I’m sure Netanyahu will be able to coax one of them to join with him.
I must correct myself, with 75 percent of the vote counted, Likud + Jewish Home + Shas + UTJ is only 60! This is because the most recent tabulations favored the Arab parties and also put Kadima over the threshold (2 percent). We’ll see how this plays out, but I doubt all three center parties (Lapid’s, Livni’s and Kadima) would agree to a coalition with the Left block and the Arab block. I’m sure Netanyahu will be able to coax one of them to join with him.
He has to bring in at least Yesh Atid. No Jewish Zionist party will ever bring the Arabs into a coalition so constructing a center-left government without the religious parties and Bayit Yehudi is mathematically impossible.
Kadima and the Arab gains come at the expense of the rest of the Left.
The fact is a 33-34 seats, the Likud has nearly twice as many seats as the rest of the field combined and it will be tasked to form another government.
86% of votes counted and they’re saying the left and right blocs are still tied 60-60..........
That’s if you count the Arabs as part of the Left bloc.
Reality is different and some coalitions are politically and mathematically impossible.
Again, the reality is the Likud is the only party well ahead of a crowded field.
90% of the votes counted and the right bloc is back to 61 seats!
61 seats are needed to form a government so they’re right on the number right now.....
I expect the Right to end up with 62-63 seats once the rest of the vote comes in and its nearly all Right-leaning.
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