Posted on 01/23/2013 5:43:32 AM PST by SJackson
- FrontPage Magazine - http://frontpagemag.com -
Right Weakened in Israel, but Still Standing
Posted By P. David Hornik On January 23, 2013 @ 12:57 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage | 11 Comments
According to the first exit-poll results for Israels elections Tuesday night, Binyamin Netanyahu will almost certainly continue as prime minister. But it may well be with a considerably more patchwork, wobbly coalition than almost all surveys leading up to the elections had projected.
Netanyahus own Likud Beiteinu Partya merger of his original party, Likud, and the Yisrael Beiteinu factionhad plummeted to 31 seats (out of a Knesset of 120). Plummeted, because in the outgoing Knesset the two parties had a total of 42 seats between them. The merger had been celebrated by some as a brilliant move, denounced by others as a blunder of epic proportions. The denouncers won that round.
Also on the right side of the political spectrum, the Habayit Hayehudi faction of the much-celebrated Naftali Bennettthe young, hip, nationalist-religious, hi-tech wunderkind whom the world media decided to turn into a Big Storywas showing a disappointing 12 mandates from the Israeli public. But with three other right-wing parties (two of them ultra-religious) totaling 19 seats between them, it still meant the right had a majority of 62.
Which (to repeat, out of a Knesset of 120) is not as slim as it soundssince the 58 on the other side of the spectrum include 8 seats or so for Arab parties that take an oppositional stance toward Israel as a country and have never been part of any governing coalition.
In other words, among the predominantly Jewish voters, the right wing had won by perhaps 62-50a considerable margin, yet much less than expected.
And the shocker, the huge success story that enabled the lefts relatively strong showing, was the Yesh Atid (There Is a Future) faction of Yair Lapid, a media personalityconsidered charismaticwithout an iota of governmental or managerial experience in any field. Lapid, however, projected a message as champion of the middle class that clearly caught on with part of the public, coming in second with 18-19 seats.
A couple of things should be noted about Lapid, whose designation as left is arguably more schematic than substantive. First, he sometimes assumes relatively hawkish tonalities and is considered the most hawkish of the party leaders on his side of the map. Second, his main themeburden-sharing, that is, the need to put an end to the refusal of large numbers of Israels ultra-religious Jews to serve in the military and engage in productive workis a consensus message that crosses the right-left divide and is endorsed by almost all of the army-serving public.
Lapids party, in other words, is a clear candidate to join Netanyahus coalition. Netanyahu, for his part, would much prefer it that wayrather than the narrow right/religious coalition that would be unable to make progress on the burden-sharing issue.
The conundrum for Netanyahu, of course, isin what commentators are already calling the hell negotiations that face himsomehow finding a balance between Lapids demands of the ultra-religious on the one side, and the ultra-religious themselves on the other.
Among the less likely, but not impossible, scenarios:
● A coalition only between Netanyahus, Bennetts, and Lapids parties, without the ultra-religious ones. This combination of the secular right, the nationalist-religious right, and the moderate left would be narrow but possibly effective.
● A much wider, unity coalition including not only Lapids but also other left-of-center parties along with at least some of the right-wing onesin theory desirable at a time when Israel faces multiple economic, diplomatic, and security challenges, above all Irans impending nuclearization. The success of such a large coalition would probably depend mainly on the lefts abilityalways questionableto overcome its peacemaking, Mahmoud Abbas-centered delusions.
● A successful luring by the left-of-center of one of the ultra-religious parties (it would be the Shas Party, known for its cynicism) to its side, creating a narrow majority and toppling Netanyahu. Considering that the leaders of the left-wing parties are mostly inexperienced, prone to delusion, and eager to comply with U.S. and European diplomatic pressures stemming from no-less-delusive and often cynical motives, this is a dark scenario, fortunately only at the borders of the possible.
To sum up, the Israeli public has not done justice to Binyamin Netanyahu, whose overall record these past four years on the security, diplomatic, and economic fronts is solid and commendable; while falling for the somewhat facile appeal of the untested Yair Lapid. At a time when the defense and foreign policy lineup in Barack Obamas Washington looks increasingly inimical to Israel, this is lamentable but probably not irremediable.
Looks like “American Voter Disease” has spread to Israel!!!
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
“Bibi inviting Romney to Israel last summer was probably not a good move..he likely turned off the Conservatives there to...”
Oh don’t be ridiculous. You got what you want, those conservatives that just couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Romney. You got Obama. Congratulations.
On the other hand I did not vote for Romney and I'm proud of it...
On the other hand I did not vote for Romney and I’m proud of it...
Yes, and I’m sure you’re proud of sticking us all with Obama for another four years too. Thanks for nothing.
I hadn't looked at it that way. Thanks.
falling for the somewhat facile appeal of the untested Yair Lapid
Lapid promised "change", did he also promise "hope"?
When are the official results announced? (These numbers of Knesset seats for each party seem to be based only on exit polls.)
No mention at all of the once-dominant Labor Party. Are they out of business?
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