Posted on 01/28/2013 9:28:00 AM PST by mgist
The fact that the relations between China and the U.S. have been slipping into a confrontation similar to the Cold War has been discussed by media for two years, but for the first time these allegations began to take practical shape. Obama called China a "rival" and instructed to study the degree of nuclear threat posed by the country. The U.S. began redeploying its fleet in the Pacific Rim.
The reasons behind the confrontation are both economic and political. China is the world's only country capable of leaving the U.S. behind in terms of GDP in the near future (according to experts - 8 years from now). America is experiencing economic recession, high unemployment and a threat of a default. China is growing steadily, artificially maintaining low exchange rate of the yuan, which stimulates domestic production and exports. In addition, in recent years China has been withdrawing U.S. dollars from its foreign exchange reserves and investing them in gold, euros, and raw materials. The trend is clear - China no longer wants to be a creditor of the U.S.
The U.S. is concerned and trying to work through international institutions. For example, Obama signed a claim to the WTO, accusing the Chinese government of offering subsidies for Chinese auto companies. The U.S. lawmakers have actually recognized China as a manipulator in the currency pair yuan-dollar, and the U.S. imposed trade tariffs on twenty Chinese goods. However, this is a drop in the ocean. Actions similar to "Jason-Vanik" amendment are nowhere in sight. Why? Because the U.S. dependence on the Chinese economy is so high that by introducing such sanctions the United States would destroy its own industry that is being rapidly brought to China.
From a political point of view, first of all, these are two completely different systems. On the one hand - communist, collective, but isolated China, on the other - neo-liberal, individualistic U.S. Second, the political relations worsened after the adoption in January of 2012 of a new U.S. military doctrine, according to which the main area of its military presence has become the Asia-Pacific Region (APR).
The tense relations between China and Japan over territorial claims may lead the U.S. to a tough choice of joining the military conflict on the side of its ally. The same can be said with regard to the Philippines, with which the United States has a mutual defense treaty. China is flexing its muscles, staging military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region (including those shared with Russia), conducting cyber-attacks against the U.S., and bringing people into the streets at unprecedented anti-Japanese protests. In response, the Americans are conducting their exercises, trying to play a role of the arbiter in maritime disputes between China and its neighbors, entering into an agreement on the development of ballistic missiles with South Korea, creating a military base in Australia, etc.
The situation is deteriorating, and the USA is considering possible scenarios of a war with China, and even nuclear conflict. On January 2nd, Obama signed into law a new concept of national security, which ordered the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) by August 15th to submit a report on the underground network of tunnels in China and the U.S. capabilities to use conventional and nuclear forces to neutralize and destroy these tunnels. Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists Hans Kristensen said that the lack of transparency in the intentions of both countries increases the risk of a war between China and the U.S. He said that the two countries are dancing a dangerous dance that increases military tension and could potentially lead to a small war in the Pacific.
Ian Bremmer, an American political scientist and president of Eurasia Group, said in an interview with Time that the current strategic relations between the two countries are very similar to the Cold War.
He said that the U.S. ideology has not changed, although it is not as powerful as before. Its main provisions are individual freedom, democracy, and free enterprise. But in recent years it has been hit hard, both by the financial crisis and the violation of human rights in Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib, as well as huge interest of corporations in the elections. Old institutions like the G-20 are no longer working. Bremmer acknowledged that the country was poorly prepared for the challenges of the Cold War.
In the end, experts said, if the U.S. wants to establish productive relations with China, it should create a strong foundation in the form of organizations that China is interested in joining. Ultimately, a club that the Chinese would want to join needs to be created, Bremer said. However, he provided no explanation on what this "club" would be like. A club against Russia? Quite the contrary, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) where the United States is not present has been already established in Asia. Or is it a club where all Asia-Pacific countries will be playing against China? This is unlikely, because at the last summit of another regional association - the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) (which does not include China) in July of 2012 with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a strategy against China's actions in the disputed archipelago South China Sea has not been developed. Chinese allies are obvious - Cambodia, Thailand and Myanmar with which China has a powerful financial leverage.
Bremmer may be talking about an Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership that is seen in the U.S. as an instrument of the "return to Asia" and is intended to replace the APEC (that includes Russia and China). But China would not join an organization where the rules are dictated by the U.S. This means that creation of the said "club" is not realistic.
However: "China no longer wants to be a creditor of the U.S." is NOT a suitable casus belli.
After all: why would anyone in their right mind want to hang onto dollars? The Fed are printing between 45 and 85 billion of them a month!
Not sure what to think. The US media disseminates Chinese propaganda as easily as the white house talking points, they have some kind of relationship going on.
It’s going to continue to be tense for at least two years, as Japan and the US (and most Western countries) are going to print fiat currencies to meet crushing socialist liabilities.
After two years the new shale revenues will begin to put a floor under the dollar. Though even then, Obama will doubtless contrive to print even more.
And inside that two years Japan will see either hyperinflation or a great devaluation - and China will take advantage of their weakness to seize contested real estate in the SC sea.
More importantly, when the Yen crashes all other fiat currencies will tend to devalue as well.
The hidden race is for China to buy as much gold as they can without increasing the price of gold, before fiat currencies slip too far and destroy the buying power of their foreign currency reserves.
And here there is indeed a symbiotic, if unplanned, relationship with the US Government - because the US is suppressing growth in the price of gold to maintain belief in the reserve currency.
So for the next two years there will be a strong flow of gold from West to East, as Western Governments deliberately impoverish anybody who holds their fiat currencies.
Any war under obama - for that matter, under any democrat president - against china will necessarily be preceded by giving china all of our military and national security secrets, dismantling our entire nuclear arsenal and staffing the entire military with women and gays. Followed by obamatalk, a federal program mandating the purchase by all Americans of Mandarin language lessons, a la obamacare.
In other words, Obama is willing to ratchet up tensions with China because he is concerned about his union power base, while he is unwilling to face real threats from radical Islam because they are a distraction from his plans to build a Lesser America.
IMHO the US and China had a very close relation in the 1980’s. So friendly that the US had a CIA listening post in China to monitor USSR. After the Soviet Union collapse, China needed a strong US in Asia to keep things stable in order to reform her economic system to capitalism and have stable Asian markets to sell her goods. China was still a distant power to the US in terms of economy, military and etc. Problem is the US military industrial complex was in a panic when the Soviet Union fell. How can they justify all those advance weapon system programs when the main US nemesis collapsed? China was the natural fill in for the Soviet Union, except China was busy developing inward and not spreading anti US Communism like the post WW2 Soviet Union. Just monitor US behavior after the fall of the Soviet Union? It was fraught with antagonism and provocations. The US private think tanks with link to DoD industries were leaking secret reports stating China will be the US enemy in the 21st Century. Public criticism of human rights, religious freedom and imperfect progress towards democracy were highlighted against China only, while other US allies like Saudi Arabia, Gulf States were ignored. All these US actions were aimed at provoking the PLA class in China, who unlike many of their diplomat and businessmen faction of the Party rarely went overseas to see the world. Low level reps of DoD think tanks and organizations made visits to Taiwan and encouraged moves for independence. All these acts were geared to antagonize the PLA generals who were more xenophobic then the rest of the Chinese ruling class begin their outbursts against the US. Our MSM were more then willing to record these outbursts ufrther fueling the image of the Chinese menace. All this US provocation and Chinese reaction reached tipping point with the US/EU bombing of the Chinese embassy in Yugoslavia. So why are we on the road to future Chinese American War, the failure of US gov civilian officials to rein in our DoD industrial complex from setting the agenda for the future thru provocations to induce a second arms race. The only thing delaying such war is the interlinking of the US and Chinese economy. At the rate the US is incurring gov debt and currency printing, even this financial link of debtor to creditor will fade. When that happens, war with China will occur.
Yeah, maybe if The Group would invite them out for lattes and gossip, they'd play more nicely with the world because they'd feel included and liked.
This drooling, moronic, flaming idiocy is the direct result of soccer moms voting.
The only thing that keeps China from launching its nukes against us is that its military can't get off the floor from laughing so hard.
The Hillary Effect: a world burning in raw stupidity, arrogance and selfish infantilism.
* Note that we had no treaty allies in Europe during WWII, but we jumped in anyway. China has been Asia's Imperial Japan for thousands of years, checked by the Arabs in the 8th century and then by Europe starting in the 17th century. The interesting thing? China doubled its territory in the 18th century, right before its descent into famine and civil war in the 19th. It's only thanks to Japan, Russia and the Western powers, that many of its neighbors (Korea, Mongolia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma) are independent today.
China expanded when conquered and ruled by non Chinese. Look at Yuan and Qing Dynasties. My thesis is US will not invade China, but in post Cold War took advantage of China’s xenophobic view of the world to provoke unsophisticated PLA generals mouthing off, and using the sound bites to justify large DoD budget. If China does not play the role of the Soviet Union in a post Cold War era, bomb her embassy, create a flimsy excuse that cannot be defended so it sends a message to the Chinese that the US superpower can blow up your embassy in Yugoslavia and you cannot do anything in response. Having an arms race is what the DoD wants and a China reacting the way we want to produce a caricature of another superpower threat. We did that to Spain, Imperial Germany and Nazi Germany until Pearl Harbor.
1980’s US and China had a close and warm relation. China embarked on economic reform and trade with US. China needed a strong US in Asia to maintain security and stability for her markets. If the US still had warm relations with China, China rather have the US navy provide secure routes to ME oil and resources because it is more cost effective. Since the 1990’s we kept leaking secret DoD sponsored think tank reports that China will be the strategic enemy in 21st Century and the US DoD must plan for that, I think the PLA and China will react to those leaked secret reports (wonder how DoD manage to keep things well secret except for those reports...hmmmmm!). The sad part is the process has gone too far and too long to turn back. China and the PLA have concluded the US is the enemy. Visitors of PLA will find the enlisted soldier is indoctrinated the US IS THE ENEMY, something that was absent during the 1990’s. When we started the Cold War with China we thought we had money, now the process is well underway (we cannot turn it back) our country is going deeper in debt and broke.
China has a plan. It will not be military but economical. China has been stockpiling gold/silver and slowly scale back buying US T Bills. China also has been trading with other nations using currency swaps in lieu of using US dollars. So far the combined coordination of EU/US/Japan central banks have prevented the US dollar from weakening severely. But such a coalition cannot hold forever and contain the lower value of the dollar. When China has sufficient gold in reserve she will slowly expand the usage of the Chinese Yuan and eventually declare its currency backed by gold/silver. When that happens, the US navy will be idle and the aircraft grounded because the American economy will be racked by hyperinflation as US dollars unused are circulated back to the US. When countries are threaten by economic collapse, they tend to start a war. The US historically begins the process by first picking out the country’s faults and weakness, and make it look morally evil; once that image takes hold stage an incident (USS Maine, Lusitannia, US ships escorting UK ships to Iceland, Gulf of Tonkins, WMD in Iraq....), whip up the public and go to war. This is the US MO to start a war. We are already in phase I, China’s stupid PLA remarks is phase Ib...
China has consistently attempted to expand its territory throughout its 2000 years of history. At inception, its territory was 20% of what it is today. It's just that it expanded the most during the Mongol and Manchurian dynasties. And all this stuff about non-Chinese dynasties is silly. Are you going to tell me that the Normans, the Angles and the Saxons are non-British?
The US historically begins the process by first picking out the country’s faults and weakness, and make it look morally evil; once that image takes hold stage an incident (USS Maine, Lusitannia, US ships escorting UK ships to Iceland, Gulf of Tonkins, WMD in Iraq....), whip up the public and go to war. This is the US MO to start a war.
The paranoid style of Korean nationalism has gotten the better of you, and you've started seeing grand conspiracies where none exist.
Only one issue is in dispute.....
Will Hillary Clinton or John Kerry deliver our unconditional surrender to Beijing?
I have no doubt that the US has plans for war against every nation on earth, including Bhutan, Andorra, and the Principality of Sealand.
I think this is a not so veiled reference to the coming global Federation.
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