U.S. economy grew 0.1% in fourth quarter

WSJ/Market Watch ^ | Feb. 28, 2013, 8:31 a.m | Jeffry Bartash

[Mad Dawgg]

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter - but just barely - instead of contracting for the first time in three and a half years, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The U.S. expanded at a 0.1% annual rate in the last three months of 2012, better than the initially reported 0.1% drop but well below the third quarter's 3.1% pace.

[concerned about politics]

U.S. economy grew 0.1% in fourth quarter

Oh sorry. That was me. I'm making a scrap quilt, and I needed a certain color. I broke down and spent $1.99 on a fat quarter.
Sorry everybody. I was weak. I promise it won't happen again.

[Lets Roll NOW]

This is with a trillion dollars a year in federal defecit spending. With that much stimulus the economy should be roaring, but it is not, why? Because their isn’t a business in the country willing to hire or spend money while the Socialist in Chief has power.

[GeronL]

Anyone who still thinks government debt spending helps the economy is a blithering idiot

[Tea Party Terrorist]

We’re Number .1! We’re Number .1! We’re Number .1!!

[Chances Are]

Consumer spending was up 2.1% during this period.

Consumer incomes declined 3.6% in January, the biggest drop since '93.

If people out there hadn't noticed yet, this is fully the Economy of Smoke and Mirrors.

My guess is, unless the fudging continues unabated, that number is revised downward.

But that's just me...

CA....

[HKMk23]

PFFFFT!!

So, we should celebrate that the patient is recovering from his pneumonia when his cancer is terminal??

[Wyatt's Torch]

If you think all the numbers are made up and fudged then I can’t argue with that sort of, umm, logic and I’m not ping to waste my talking responding to people who cannot be reasoned with......... There are just way too many conspiracy theorists on this site. I’ve been on FR since the late 90’s and I’ve never seen it like this.

[Wyatt's Torch]

One last try but I’m sure you’ll just say this is all made up too...

Personal income decreased by $505.5 billion in January, or 3.6%, compared to December (on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis). That’s the most dramatic decline since January 1993, according to the Commerce Department.

It’s something of a combination of one-time events, though.

Monthly income was unusually high in December because companies paid out early dividends to avoid upcoming tax hikes. Companies like Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500), and Costco Wholesale Corp paid special dividends to their shareholders at the end of 2012, instead of waiting until 2013.

In doing so, they helped their high-income shareholders (individuals earning at least $400,000 a year, or married couples earning $450,000) avoid paying higher taxes on their gains. In their last-minute fiscal cliff deal, lawmakers decided to raise dividend tax rates for high-income households from 15% to 20%.

The payroll tax cut’s expiration also played a role in January’s drop, because most workers have to pay 2 percentage points more in taxes this year. The Commerce Department’s “personal income” calculation subtracts out individuals’ contributions to government social insurance programs like Social Security, which are funded by the payroll tax.

Excluding those special factors, the Commerce Department estimates that after-tax income actually increased 0.3% in January.

- See more at: http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/01/news/economy/income-spending-saving/#sthash.pz0YaQxu.dpuf

[cherokee1]

That would be the same as France and they’re lying about it too. The new guy in France is just as dopey as our new guy.

[Chances Are]

Well, uh...how many revisions (they've all been upward, not downward) have we seen in the initial claims numbers the past couple of years?

How about that spectacular "drop" in unemployment the month before the election? I'm not saying the numbers were "made up" (your term), but with almost all serious observers chiming in it was readily apparent that serious efforts were being made everywhere to dampen the sounds of incredulous throat-clearing and reflexive rolling of the eyes.

The Commerce Department (BEA) says without these one-time factors (forget about Hurricane Sandy; forget about 4-day work weeks; forget about...) it might have been a gain of 0.3%. Interesting.

All private sector wages and disbursements decreased for the period; only government and military wages increased.

Further, the BEA reports that of this $44.8 billion decrease (month over month), it attributed these "special factors" to $15.0 billion, at an annualized rate. That is their statement in the report.

(I don't bother with things like Money magazine, which does have an audience. I prefer to go straight to the source - http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm.)

I understand the impact of shifting dividends and bonuses in to the current year for tax advantages; they are not by any means uncommon occurrences. But there is a limit to who and how many people these factors impact.

From the report:
Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $44.8 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $49.1 billion in December. The January level of private wages and salaries was reduced by $15.0 billion (at an annual rate) in January, after a boost of $30.0 billion in December, reflecting the impact of accelerated bonuses in anticipation of changes to individual income tax rates. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $3.3 billion in January, in contrast to an increase of $9.8 billion in December; manufacturing payrolls decreased $3.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $5.4 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $41.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $39.3 billion.

Government wage and salary disbursements increased $1.1 billion, compared with an increase of $0.8 billion. Pay raises for military personnel added $1.9 billion to government payrolls in January.

These areas bolded reflect mainly wages paid that declined; it has nothing to do with accelerated dividend payments or employer contributions, which do not factor in to the calculation of either personal income or DPI.

Let's assume here, for the sake of argument, that the Commerce Department's claim of a rise of 0.3% is what should have happened.

Hiring in January increased, a paltry 157,000 (non-farm payrolls). According to the latest JOLTS report http://www.bls.gov/jlt/, job openings (again, non-farm) were listed at 3.617 million for December (last month figures are available), with a hiring rate of 3.1%.

However, turnover was reported at 3.0%, quits (yes, they even exist today!) came in at 1.6%, and layoffs/discharges were reported at 1.2%.

Again, for the sake of argument, we'll extrapolate these numbers as ballpark into January, even though factors like discharging seasonal (holiday) workers and the like should be apparent.

For the month of January, wage increases for all workers was reported at $0.04/hr. Weekly hours worked did not increase (in manufacturing, they actually fell). The change in real hourly earnings was actually $0.02.

(These are all Department of Labor Current Employment Statistics - http://www.bls.gov/ces/).

Given these numbers - depressed hiring, no increase in hours worked, continued staggering initial and continuing unemployment claims, etc., etc., I have a hard time witnessing this spinning of flax into gold.

Maybe it does work out that way (I'm still going through BEA's methodology), but given the increasing politicization of supposedly independent and trust-worthy governmental departments under the Obama regime I'm starting to wonder.

Think I'm a conspiracy nut? Why did Judd Gregg drop the Commerce Department job like a hot potato before he even started it? And then, after you've pondered that, look at my join date.

Thank you for this discussion. I've enjoyed it.

CA....

[ChildOfThe60s]

My income got very distorted at the end of 2012. A chunk of income that I would normally not take until January or February I took in December to avoid 2013 taxes. But it shoved up my December a lot and I’m going to get creamed for 2012 taxes. Just not as much as I would have taking the money in January of this year.

I have no doubt that ObamaCare et al is causing plenty of economic statistic distortions. Bottom line is the economy sucks and will continue to suck while the government will continue to take more of our assets.

[listenhillary]

This administration has been such a pristine fountain of truth since the first inauguration. Who could ever imagine that economic numbers would be distorted for political reasons?

Check my “born on” date.

[patton]

If inflation were calculated including fuel and food (eaten lately? My kids are picky about not getting fed...), how long have we actually been in a depression?

I am thinking about 8 years now?

[dowcaet]

This is a joke, right? We’re the freaking United States of America and we’re not supposed to be just like Europe and South America when it comes to economic growth. This is pathetic and I’m fed up with the stupidity running rampant throughout this country from education to politics. We’ve got stupid leaders leading stupid people right off the cliff and the rest of us are getting dragged down with this mess.

[Mad Dawgg]

"This is a joke, right?"

Yep, the USA is officially become a joke. How could be anything but with a Joker in charge?

[LongWayHome]

Have you checked the country’s demographics as of late ? We have imported over 40 mllion LEGAL immigrants; mostly from the third world. Most of these folks are dirt poor & uneducated. The American voter has been replaced by a “new people”. That’s the future.