Posted on 05/07/2013 2:05:59 PM PDT by Kaslin
PARIS -- As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets with his Russian counterparts this week in Moscow to discuss Syria, much of the world is wondering what America's endgame is. But what if we are already witnessing it? What if America's ultimate exit strategy for the Syrian conflict is to have it grind on ad infinitum because there's very little advantage to doing anything else?
Increasingly, it's Russia that has the most to lose from the ongoing hostilities in Syria. What if America has successfully applied the old Soviet-era (and judo) subversion tactic of allowing an opponent to fully follow through with their hardest punch to the point of bringing harm upon themselves, rather than daring to block the blow at one's own risk?
What would America get by ending the Syrian conflict? Not much compared with what it gets from a prolongation. Conflict keeps some of the less savory actors of the region -- al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and Iran's Quds Force -- busy fighting and depleting their resources while Israel keeps the whole mess contained. If they're all drawn into Syria for the time being, they're less likely to be blowing up things for kicks on a Friday night.
Meanwhile, various Western security contractors are making a few bucks off black ops. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are in on the anti-Assad action, blowing cash on staging opposition efforts in Turkey, which has long been hoping to score some brownie points in its ongoing bid for European Union membership. Since Qatar is the same nation that blew millions to pay David Beckham to play soccer for a few months in Paris, it's not hard to imagine that it would bankroll the Syrian opposition purely for the entertainment value. Putting this in fiscal perspective, it would be like a normal person paying 10 bucks to see a movie.
Kerry and America would apparently like Russia's help in negotiating a resolution to the conflict. However it responds, Russia cannot win. And over time, its losses can only continue to grow.
Russia has criticized America and its allies for their role in materially supporting the Syrian opposition, for obvious reasons. Russia is Syria's largest arms supplier and has been caught sending weapons to Syria throughout the conflict. Earlier this year, a Russian ship flying the flag of St. Vincent and the Grenadines was found to be carrying ammunition bound for Syria after it was forced to dock in Cyprus during a storm. Russia claims that such shipments aren't illegal -- though they would be if not for Russia repeatedly blocking U.N. Security Council resolutions to impose sanctions against Syria.
While the Russians have a legitimate gripe about Western support of a ragtag band of rebels linked to al-Qaeda, Russia is being equally obtuse. It could have brought Syrian President Bashar Assad to the negotiating table anytime it wanted, and on its own terms, when it was operating from a position of strength. But doing so too early wouldn't have been advantageous, because Russia had been profiting from the conflict. It sells arms to Syria, supplies Hezbollah through Syria and Iran, and makes money off Iran by developing its nuclear program. All that works just fine for Russia as long as the supply chain isn't compromised, as is becoming increasingly the case.
Now that Israel has been able to pinpoint and surgically strike weapons in Syria that are bound for Israeli terrorist foe Hezbollah before they can present any threat to civilians, Russia's cash cow is on life support.
So now, here comes America, asking Russia to intervene by bringing Assad to the table. What does America lose if the Kremlin refuses? Absolutely nothing. One could argue that America's ideal endgame in Syria is a continuation of the status quo. By making Western disengagement a condition of negotiation rather than just dragging Assad to the table, Russia has been checkmated into taking a position that now increasingly runs counter to its own interests.
No matter what ultimately happens in Syria, there will be no happy ending to this story. These are tribal factions hell-bent on killing each other, and whenever the teacher leaves the room, they'll revert back to doing so. It's difficult to imagine a bigger nightmare for Russia than a mix of terrorists and thugs, including members of al-Qaeda and Hezbollah, right in their backyard and only a car ride away from the Islamist elements that Russia has struggled to control in the North Caucasus.
Syria is ultimately Russia's problem -- not America's.
There's the key sentence.
In all previous military interventions, the US has had the sanction of the UN and the cover of International Law, including the World Court.
This time, in Syria, our interference is illegal and in violation of International Law.
Russia knows that they have Obama and the US in a corner, while our strength is waning and Russia and China grow stronger.
It will take a decade but the US will rue the day they supported any side in Syria.
Russia is not growing stronger. As a matter of fact, Mother Russia is barely hanging on.
Syria is a good customer and if lost will severely effect the small markets they have for weapons
Increasingly, it’s Russia that has the most to lose from the ongoing hostilities in Syria. What if America has successfully applied the old Soviet-era (and judo) subversion tactic of allowing an opponent to fully follow through with their hardest punch to the point of bringing harm upon themselves, rather than daring to block the blow at one’s own risk?
“Russia is not growing stronger. As a matter of fact, Mother Russia is barely hanging on.”
Really? Russia just dropped $2 billion of private equity into the China Investment Corporation. Russia, along with China, is nurturing the BRICS economies and competing against western private equity firms in emerging markets. As someone else said, Putin is playing chess. I wouldn’t sell Russia short.
Russia is NOT growing weaker. It is the US that is growing weaker every day under Zero’s administration. Meanwhile, Russia builds sophisticated missiles and aircraft while we disarm ours.
My current Lenovo laptop which sees light use is starting to show cracks in the housing.
Since the droid does 80% of what I need, I may not get another laptop after this one.
Ummmm .... not true, if someone gets frosted enough at our being cute, to lend someone else some deniable WMD to try out in Baltimore (the scenario in the weak film version of Tom Clancy's The Sum of All Fears -- it was Denver in the book).
Either way, we get fried in numbers and Obozo gets to deny responsibility for that, too -- like everything else, which is the Alinsky Way.
Egypt Investment Is Collapsing as Citizens Turn Into Vigilantes
My 1999 IBM i-Series did the same thing, but it took 11 years to start developing and another two or three to reach crisis proportions. A techie told me it was heat, and outgassing/embrittlement of the case's plastic.
I should expect as much from the people who foisted the most evil email product ever - Lotus Notes.
Pretty much all of big technology probably fits that description.
“Obama isn’t smart enough to run a snocone stand.”
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It hardly matters, he is a puppet anyway and the string pullers intend for the snowcone stand to fail as soon as possible.
There isn’t anyone in the administration with the political smarts or strategic acumen to think this up. Idea was probably at the instigation of the Israelis.
...much of the world is wondering what America's endgame is. But what if we are already witnessing it? What if America's ultimate exit strategy for the Syrian conflict is to have it grind on ad infinitum because there's very little advantage to doing anything else Increasingly, it's Russia that has the most to lose from the ongoing hostilities in Syria... What would America get by ending the Syrian conflict? Not much compared with what it gets from a prolongation. Conflict keeps some of the less savory actors of the region -- al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and Iran's Quds Force -- busy fighting and depleting their resources while Israel keeps the whole mess contained. If they're all drawn into Syria for the time being, they're less likely to be blowing up things for kicks on a Friday night... Western security contractors are making a few bucks off black ops. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are in on the anti-Assad action, blowing cash on staging opposition efforts in Turkey, which has long been hoping to score some brownie points in its ongoing bid for European Union membership... However it responds, Russia cannot win. And over time, its losses can only continue to grow.Gosh, these ideas look familiar... ;')
>>>>Thanks Kaslin.
...much of the world is wondering what America’s endgame is. But what if we are already witnessing it? What if America’s ultimate exit strategy for the Syrian conflict is to have it grind on ad infinitum because there’s very little advantage to doing anything else Increasingly, it’s Russia that has the most to lose from the ongoing hostilities in Syria... What would America get by ending the Syrian conflict? Not much compared with what it gets from a prolongation. Conflict keeps some of the less savory actors of the region — al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds Force — busy fighting and depleting their resources while Israel keeps the whole mess contained. If they’re all drawn into Syria for the time being, they’re less likely to be blowing up things for kicks on a Friday night... Western security contractors are making a few bucks off black ops. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are in on the anti-Assad action, blowing cash on staging opposition efforts in Turkey, which has long been hoping to score some brownie points in its ongoing bid for European Union membership... However it responds, Russia cannot win. And over time, its losses can only continue to grow.
Gosh, these ideas look familiar... ;’)<<<<
In fact I think Russia is a single player to win from instability in the Middle East.
It makes energy prices grow.
An attack on Iran could be an extraordinary gift for Russian economy.
Don’t overestimate their dependence on Syria as a weapons market. These sales are nothing comparing to a size of Russian economy, let alone the fact in actually never generated any cash (Assad has a credit line in Russia).
10c plus for a barrel in enough to cover any possible losses.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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Syria is a no-win, and therefore possibly a win-win civil war for all parties concerned, except of course, for the innocent people being killed as collateral damage. No matter which side comes out on top in this war, it will be bad news. Either Assad the Dictator maintains his dynasty and iron grip control over his populations, or, in the alternative, the opposition will take over, and the Muslim Brotherhood (plus Al-Qaeda elements) will rule the new Dictatorship, establish Sharia law, as in all of the other Arab Spring turnover countries, and will become an eventual terrorist state and enemy of western countries. Some choice, eh?
However, if we do nothing, which is the preferable choice, as also stated in this article, nothing happens but more continuous fighting. Therefore keeping the Middle East in turmoil, with continuous fighting right in a neighboring state of Russia (which is fine by me) while two sets of bad actors, Assad and his regime on one side, and the Muslim Brotherhood/Al Qaeda, on the other, busy killing each other off. I feel extremely sorry for the more secularist parts of the Syrian population being adversely affected to the max, but as we already know from other Arab Spring country uprisings, these people never gain control, the Muslim Brotherhood extremists will (example Egypt).
Bottom line, let the Syrians keep on fighting till they wear themselves out, keep the U.S. out of this internecine warfare, and let Russia or others figure this out. John McCain and his constant war mongering notwithstanding, we have no dog in this fight to speak of, except to not get involved in yet another messy Mid East fiasco as we have done so many times before. The only country in the Middle East we have a moral obligation to defend and come to the aid of is Israel, the only true democracy in the whole area of the Mid East, our ally, our ears and eyes to what is going on over there in that forever turbulent region,and our only true friend in the neighborhood. OTHERWISE STAY OUT!
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