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Ted Cruz could beat Hillary
Salon ^ | SATURDAY, JUL 20, 2013 | JONATHAN BERNSTEIN

Posted on 07/21/2013 2:01:38 PM PDT by nickcarraway

He may be a right-wing nut, but the Texas senator can beat a Democrat in a general election. Here's why

There’s been some more buzz this week about Ted Cruz’s presidential prospects. The demagoguing senator took his first trip to Iowa just six months after being sworn in to office, and he’s pretty clearly reaching for the White House. Early reports are that it’s going well. And Rich Yeselson wrote a high-profile (and fascinating) essay arguing that, basically, Cruz is perfectly positioned for reaching the top of the Republican ticket.

The focus of this piece is on Cruz’s general election viability. When it comes to the primary, I’m not going to start handicapping the viable candidates seeking the Republican nomination yet; I’ll only say that I don’t see any reason not to include Cruz in that group, as of now. Viable candidates have conventional credentials and are in the mainstream of their party on questions of public policy. Cruz, from what we know now, qualifies. With four years in elected office by January 2017, he’ll be in a similar boat with Barack Obama (who, granted, had held lower office as well) and Mitt Romney (who at least had four full years before his campaign began). And while Cruz surely is planted at an edge of the Republican mainstream, I don’t see any reason, so far, to believe he’s close to falling off that edge. Whether or not Yeselson is correct that Cruz is a particularly strong candidate, it’s certainly very possible to see him nominated.

But what about the general election? Could he actually win?

What I hear from many liberals about Cruz’s chances are two things. One is just disbelief: Republicans wouldn’t really do something like nominate Cruz, would they? The key is that Ted Cruz isn’t Herman Cain or even Michele Bachmann; he’s a United States senator, and that counts for something (that is, conventional credentials count for something) in presidential elections. So, yes, they really could do something like that.

The other thing I hear, however, is perhaps even more wrong. Some liberals react by actively rooting for Cruz. The theory? The nuttier the nominee, the worse the chances of Republicans retaking the White House. Indeed, in conversation I’ve heard all sorts of justifications: Cruz couldn’t possibly win Florida! Therefore, he couldn’t win the White House!

Don’t listen to it.

The smart money play for liberals remains to root, in the Republican primary, for whichever candidate would make the best – or perhaps the least-worst – president.

The bottom line is that candidates just don’t matter all that much in presidential elections. Yes, a reputation for ideological extremism hurts, but it appears to hurt maybe 2 or 3 percentage points. Yes, George McGovern and Barry Goldwater had reputations for ideological extremism and were buried, but in both cases it was by a popular president during good times. Ronald Reagan wasn’t slowed much (although, still, some) by his conservative image. Don’t get me wrong: There’s no evidence for the opposite theory, that avoiding the squishy center (in either direction) will magically produce an avalanche of new voters who otherwise would have stayed home. Going moderate is better. It just isn’t all that much better.

Now, on top of that, it’s an open question whether Cruz would really wind up with a reputation as more of a fringe figure than any other plausible nominee. For one thing, the Republican nomination process may bring out inflamed rhetoric, but it’s also likely to create converging policy views among the candidates. Indeed, it’s not impossible to imagine a scenario in which Cruz wins the nomination as the hero of conservatives, which then leaves him far more free to pivot to the center in the general election race than a less trusted candidate might have. Granted, the other possibility is very real as well – Cruz spends the nomination fight solidifying his conservative reputation, and then finds it sticks with him no matter what he does later. And it’s worth noting that Mitt Romney’s reputation as relatively moderate managed to survive everything he did in in the entire 2012 election cycle.

The bottom line, however, is that Ted Cruz is unlikely to drop more than a couple points to the Democratic nominee. And that’s not likely to swing the election. Could it? Sure; even a small bump would have sunk the Republicans in 2000, for example. But most elections aren’t narrow enough for a couple of points to make a difference.

The only exception to this would be for someone who doesn’t even have conventional credentials. Nominate Cain or Bachmann, and it’s not difficult to believe that the penalty would be very large. There’s no way of knowing, however, because no one like that ever gets nominated. So, sure, root for them, but it ain’t gonna happen.

So what it all comes down to is if you really believe that Cruz is more dangerous as president than Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or the rest of the likely field, then you most definitely don’t want him in place just in case 2016 turns out to be a good year for Republicans.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016elections; cruz2016; hillary2016
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1 posted on 07/21/2013 2:01:38 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: nickcarraway

In order to beat Hillary, you have to beat the media (and mention Benghazi OFTEN).


2 posted on 07/21/2013 2:03:51 PM PDT by CivilWarBrewing
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To: nickcarraway

Considering the media has picked the last couple GOP candidates for us.


3 posted on 07/21/2013 2:05:58 PM PDT by miliantnutcase
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To: nickcarraway

I’m skeptical that any Republican can win the Presidency in the foreseeable future. As far as I can tell, this country is headed towards Euro-Socialism. Where Europe is today, we’ll be in 50 years (or less).

Let’s hope I’m wrong. Heck, it wouldn’t be the first time.


4 posted on 07/21/2013 2:06:43 PM PDT by Kip Russell (Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors -- and miss. ---Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: nickcarraway

It only took the first seven words for this peniswrinkle to give Cruz the ailinsky treatment. Impressive.


5 posted on 07/21/2013 2:08:01 PM PDT by Captainpaintball (Maybe we DON'T wish to keep our Republic, Mr. Franklin!)
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To: nickcarraway

I doubt we’ll see him running till at least 2020.


6 posted on 07/21/2013 2:08:07 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: nickcarraway

He is NOT eligible. What part of Canada don’t you understand?


7 posted on 07/21/2013 2:08:49 PM PDT by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: nickcarraway
"He may be a right-wing nut,"

"The demagoguing senator"

No bias here, no sirree.

8 posted on 07/21/2013 2:09:39 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: faucetman

Yes, he is.


9 posted on 07/21/2013 2:10:28 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: nickcarraway

Steel cage match? I’d pay good money to see that!


10 posted on 07/21/2013 2:10:58 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (Unindicted Co-conspirators: The Mainstream Media)
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To: faucetman
He is NOT eligible. What part of Canada don’t you understand?

I believe that clause of the Constitution has been waived. It seems than no one in the whole gosh-darned US of A has standing to challenge anything.

11 posted on 07/21/2013 2:12:25 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (Unindicted Co-conspirators: The Mainstream Media)
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To: faucetman
He is NOT eligible. What part of Canada Kenya don’t you understand?

Fixed it.

12 posted on 07/21/2013 2:12:58 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You can't invade the mainland US There'd be a rifle behind each blade of grass.)
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To: Kip Russell

Run a “right wing nut” and see what happens. It hasn’t been tried since Reagan.


13 posted on 07/21/2013 2:14:13 PM PDT by gorush (History repeats itself because human nature is static)
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To: nickcarraway

I’m PRAYING that if Madam Benghazi runs in 2016, it will be from GITMO or Supermax!


14 posted on 07/21/2013 2:15:04 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (A Quiet Rage is Building All Across America!)
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To: faucetman

Canada is not Kenya.

Cruz’s father had aspirations to become an American and did so while Ted was very young.

And Cuba was at one time a protectorate of the United States.

Cruz is qualified.


15 posted on 07/21/2013 2:16:25 PM PDT by Wellington VII
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To: nickcarraway

If he wins the nomination I’ll support him, and maybe before that, but right now I want to see what the circus is going to turn up. For that matter, the Democrats might have a circus of their own to contend with. Seeing how easy the Obamarama got off the ground, other flim-flam scum are sure to give it a try.


16 posted on 07/21/2013 2:19:22 PM PDT by pallis
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To: nickcarraway
So, the author makes a statement with the title "Ted Cruz Could Beat Hillary" which, he clearly does NOT believe. Then he attempts to paste a string of invectives on Cruz to see which sticks:

Cruz is more dangerous as president than Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie; a right-wing nut,, demagoguing senator, disbelief[that the Republicans would nominate him]; Cruz couldn’t possibly win Florida!; a reputation for ideological extremism hurts; a fringe figure; Cruz is more dangerous as president than Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie.

Even if he believed Cruz could beat Hillary, this piece is nothing more than an effort to establish that Cruz is... take your pick from the list above...hoping that some negative label will gain traction.

The truth is, the Democrats can't make up their mind. On one hand, they sort of hope that Cruz gets the nomination because he could easily be painted as a radical. On the other hand, they are afraid to full-out bless his candidacy, the way they did with McCain (knowing he was a loser) because they may truly be afraid that Cruz's genuine conservatism just might kick their butt.

17 posted on 07/21/2013 2:19:46 PM PDT by newheart (The worst thing the Left ever did was to convince the world it was not a religion.)
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To: Wellington VII

Cruz’s father had aspirations to become an American and did so while Ted was very young.

************

Senor Cruz was naturalized in 2005.


18 posted on 07/21/2013 2:20:33 PM PDT by deport
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To: nickcarraway

I expect the democrats to commit massive election fraud yet again.


19 posted on 07/21/2013 2:21:23 PM PDT by ViLaLuz (2 Chronicles 7:14)
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To: nickcarraway

He would have to not only beat Hillary, but also the establishment GOP.


20 posted on 07/21/2013 2:22:37 PM PDT by Truth29
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To: nickcarraway

If Cruz got the nomination the Dems would suddenly discover Minor v. Happersett.


21 posted on 07/21/2013 2:26:28 PM PDT by paddles ("The more corrupt the state, the more it legislates." Tacitus)
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To: nickcarraway

If Cruz got the nomination the Dems would suddenly discover Minor v. Happersett.


22 posted on 07/21/2013 2:26:42 PM PDT by paddles ("The more corrupt the state, the more it legislates." Tacitus)
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To: All
The GOP won't win the next presidential election. Social issues will continue to be the main obstacles for the GOP.
23 posted on 07/21/2013 2:30:46 PM PDT by LuvFreeRepublic
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To: Kip Russell

I think that if we ever get a decent President again, it’ll be either by accident or a military coup, because we’ve become Ancient Rome.


24 posted on 07/21/2013 2:32:55 PM PDT by Argus
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To: CivilWarBrewing
"In order to beat Hillary, you have to beat the media (and mention Benghazi OFTEN)."

Based on the GOP Presidential candidates lately, I highly doubt any of them would have the balls to persistently attack her about any of the scandals she's been a part of over the years. Look at how Rick Lazio was demonized for simply walking over to Clinton's podium, and asking her to sign his New York Freedom From Soft Money Pledge. He was labeled a bully and a chauvinist by the press. What Republican has a set of balls to go after her?

25 posted on 07/21/2013 2:33:44 PM PDT by mass55th (Courage is being scared to death - but saddling up anyway...John Wayne)
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To: gorush
Run a “right wing nut” and see what happens. It hasn’t been tried since Reagan.

Frankly, I don't know that a Reagan-esque candidate could win the Presidency today. There are a lot more people being supported by the Federal Government than there were in the early '80s.

26 posted on 07/21/2013 2:33:53 PM PDT by Kip Russell (Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors -- and miss. ---Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: faucetman
Yes, Ted Cruz is eligible under multiple parts of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

From the Department of State website:

Birth Abroad to One Citizen and One Alien Parent in Wedlock

"A child born abroad to one U.S. citizen parent and one alien parent acquires U.S. citizenship at birth under Section 301(g) of the INA provided the U.S. citizen parent was physically present in the United States or one of its outlying possessions for the time period required by the law applicable at the time of the child's birth. (For birth on or after November 14, 1986, a period of five years physical presence, two after the age of fourteen, is required. For birth between December 24, 1952 and November 13, 1986, a period of ten years, five after the age of fourteen, is required for physical presence in the United States or one of its outlying possessions to transmit U.S. citizenship to the child.) The U.S. citizen parent must be genetically related to the child to transmit U.S. citizenship."

Ted Cruz was born on 12 Dec 1970, and attended school in the United States, so this requirement is satisfied, provided that the parents were married at the time.

But now let's play the hypothetical that he was born out-of-wedlock. What does the law say about that?

Birth Abroad Out-of-Wedlock to a U.S. Citizen Mother: "A person born abroad out-of-wedlock to a U.S. citizen mother may acquire U.S. citizenship under Section 309(c) of the INA if the mother was a U.S. citizen at the time of the person’s birth and if the mother was physically present in the United States or one of its outlying possessions for a continuous period of one year prior to the person’s birth. The mother must be genetically related to the person in order to transmit U.S. citizenship."

So in this case, Cruz acquires US citizenship at birth under Section 301(c) of the INA.

27 posted on 07/21/2013 2:34:20 PM PDT by UAConservative (We have just begun to fight!)
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To: UAConservative
So in this case, Cruz acquires US citizenship at birth under Section 301(c) of the INA.

Oops. Meant to say Section 301(d)

28 posted on 07/21/2013 2:37:38 PM PDT by UAConservative (We have just begun to fight!)
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To: Kip Russell

I agree completely. I have no hope that America can be resuscitated at the ballot box.


29 posted on 07/21/2013 2:37:41 PM PDT by gorush (History repeats itself because human nature is static)
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To: Kip Russell

That a boy, make a harsh prediction then give us two strong reasons to doubt your ability and self confidence in making predictions.........

Just because we seem caught in a bad movie, by no means is any indication of voter sentiment 3 years out.

Lets work on 2014 for now! Things are looking very positive toward 2014 and control of the House and Senate will change everything including nobama.


30 posted on 07/21/2013 2:40:56 PM PDT by X-spurt (I'm copywriting creepy ass cracker, send royalties to BR549)
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To: nickcarraway

But Cruz is ineligible to run for the presidency. He was born in Calgary. That’s being born in a foreign country. Now I KNOW there are Freepers who are going to try to twist that to somehow Cruz was born in the United States.


31 posted on 07/21/2013 2:42:24 PM PDT by righttackle44 (Take scalps. Leave the bodies as a warning.)
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To: ViLaLuz

By 2016 Voter ID will have grown to many States and although barring an asteroid hitting, Congressional Majority will slip away from dems on both sides giving a much clearer field of view and making it much harder to pull off a cheat-repeat of 2008 and 2012.

One thing that I predict will hurt dems in 2016 is that nobama will take all the dem money for himself or will push for strong Africanized government followup, which will lead to an internal revolt and panic in dem world.


32 posted on 07/21/2013 2:53:42 PM PDT by X-spurt (I'm copywriting creepy ass cracker, send royalties to BR549)
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To: faucetman

Eligibility Schmeligibility. /spit


33 posted on 07/21/2013 2:58:06 PM PDT by CivilWarBrewing
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To: righttackle44
But Cruz is ineligible to run for the presidency. He was born in Calgary. That’s being born in a foreign country. Now I KNOW there are Freepers who are going to try to twist that to somehow Cruz was born in the United States.

IIUC, Natural Born Citizen is not dependent on the location: would an ambassador and his wife, on assignment in a foreign country, and assuming both being citizens fail to have a citizen as a child? Why or why not?

34 posted on 07/21/2013 2:58:43 PM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: nickcarraway

Until this country turns back to God, he will continue to punish us with Hussein’s and she-devil’s in the WH. This country is under judgment and its going to get a lot worse.


35 posted on 07/21/2013 2:59:27 PM PDT by Old Yeller (Goodbye America. Glad the majority of my years were spent during the good days.)
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To: righttackle44

McQueeg was born in Panama. Next.


36 posted on 07/21/2013 2:59:52 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: pallis

The circus will turn up a slew of candidates just to divide the vote so the RINO du jour slips through the cracks. All we’ll hear then is the insane excuse, “well if they wanted my vote, they shouldn’t have run a Romney!”
We need to unite and fast behind the best candidate who can possibly win the PRIMARY! We are doomed if this madness continues.


37 posted on 07/21/2013 3:01:50 PM PDT by stilloftyhenight (Proud bitter clinging wacko bird chirper.)
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To: nickcarraway

Tigger could beat that witch


38 posted on 07/21/2013 3:07:06 PM PDT by The Wizard (Madam President is my President now and in the future)
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To: faucetman; All
one of my granddaughters was born in the west Indies, while her father was working there - she carries DUEL citizenship, automatically.

Ever hear of that?

Canada also has duel citizenship.

A DIL was born in Italy - her mother Italian, her father retired Amer. Army. She holds duel citizenship - automatically - but didn't even know it until she applied for a visa to come here last year and was denied - told she didn't NEED a visa as she was already a citizen.

So how about we tone down the ‘forget about Cruz’ right out of the gate. Let's not eat our own - FOR ONCE. and once we get a candidate - let's not rip them to shreds, like we did Romney. Let's set aside our omniscient intelligence and get the enemies out of power.

39 posted on 07/21/2013 3:09:31 PM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does - by their fruits)
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To: LuvFreeRepublic

Jobs. When asked about the primary concern of citizens, 75% say the economy! In poll after poll this is what they say! Whoever has the best plan for that will win! It isn’t social issues. It’s jobs and the restoration of the American Dream for American citizens! This issue transcends all groups.


40 posted on 07/21/2013 3:11:13 PM PDT by stilloftyhenight (Proud bitter clinging wacko bird chirper.)
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To: maine-iac7
she carries DUEL citizenship, automatically. Ever hear of that?

Is that where you have a pick of the weapons before you fight to the death, for citizenship?

41 posted on 07/21/2013 3:12:24 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (HEY RATS! Control your murdering freaks.)
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To: righttackle44

Check out posts #27 & # 39, Oh wise one.


42 posted on 07/21/2013 3:17:40 PM PDT by maine-iac7 (Christian is as Christian does - by their fruits)
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To: CivilWarBrewing

That goes for any R pres. candidate against any D and their overwhelming liberal media. The R candidate has to beat both.


43 posted on 07/21/2013 3:20:34 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: CivilWarBrewing
In order to beat Hillary, you have to beat the media (and mention Benghazi OFTEN).

Mention her age. More exactly, how old she is.

44 posted on 07/21/2013 3:29:13 PM PDT by VRW Conspirator (The Lefties can drink Kool-Aid; I will drink Tea.)
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To: nickcarraway
Ted Cruz could beat Hillary

I certainly hope so. I salivate at the thought of that wench (HRC) being slapped down one last time before she finally strokes out.

45 posted on 07/21/2013 3:33:17 PM PDT by Sarajevo (Don't think for a minute that this excuse for a President has America's best interest in mind.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Cruz/West would be the best ticket in the nation! PERIOD.

Or any ticket with West on it for that matter.


46 posted on 07/21/2013 3:36:17 PM PDT by Cyclone59 (I wish people would get their heads out of their butts and their noses out of everyones business)
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To: Cyclone59

I’d prefer one with eligible Americans on it, but I guess I’m just a minority these days.


47 posted on 07/21/2013 3:38:05 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge ("we are pilgrims in an unholy land")
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To: Wellington VII

Cruz is qualfied to be a US senator. He is not qualified under Art II sec 1 Clause 5 as a natural born citizen. You have to have two citizen parents AT BIRTH not one who aspires to be one in the future.

I concede that if Obama is not removed because of his ineligibility than that provision of the USC will be rendered moot.
I wish Cruz WAS eligible because he is a pretty reliable conservative. But I am a constitutionalist before I will yeild to any cult of personality


48 posted on 07/21/2013 3:38:45 PM PDT by DMZFrank
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To: maine-iac7

How about we follow the laws and the constitution? I thought we were the party that supported them?

I love Cruz, but he needs to stay as a senator.

Let the other 49 states try to come up with a president for once!


49 posted on 07/21/2013 3:39:24 PM PDT by JCBreckenridge ("we are pilgrims in an unholy land")
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To: JCBreckenridge

*sniff* *sniff*


50 posted on 07/21/2013 3:39:35 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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