Posted on 07/29/2013 2:32:33 PM PDT by Olog-hai
Addressing graduates of military academies is a standard responsibility for high-ranking military officers all over the world. But last week, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the commander of Egypt’s armed forces, which recently deposed the country’s first freely elected president, went far beyond the conventions of the genre in a speech to graduates of Egypt’s Navy and Air Defense academies. Sisi’s true audience was the wider Egyptian public, and he presented himself less as a general in the armed forces than as a populist strongman. …
Sisi’s speech was only the latest suggestion that he will not be content to simply serve as the leader of Egypt’s military. Although he has vowed to lead Egypt through a democratic transition, there are plenty of indications that he is less than enthusiastic about democracy and that he intends to hold on to political power himself. … Given the details of Sisi’s biography and the content of his only published work, a thesis he wrote in 2006 while studying at the U.S. Army War College in Pennsylvania, it seems possible that he might have something altogether different in mind: a hybrid regime that would combine Islamism with militarism. …
(Excerpt) Read more at foreignaffairs.com ...
confirming, again, that westerners know far too little, and always will, about Middle Easterners who rule there or who want to, because th wests political class and the western Lamestreammedia prefers that polular ignorance, lest their political agendas in foreign affairs be shown for the policies based on myths that they always are
Unless Al-Sisi is being extremely clever in his remarks, this speech is bad new for the entire ME. The secular/military dictatorship model of government had been by default the most successful means of maintaining relative order in the Arab states & Turkey, and relative peace in the region. Bashar Assad, for example, for all his troubles has no immediate plans to attack Israel.
There is now taking place in the ME swath a melding of secular militarism and Islamism. The final result will be the cloning of states like Iran, with huge militaries ruled by Islamic authorities, spread across North Africa & the Levant, thus creating the unified Islamic Crescent that the mullahs in Teheran have long dreamed of.
Bad news for the West, too.
When’s the first Sisi-Bibi summit?
Sisi’s speech was only the latest suggestion that he will not be content to simply serve as the leader of Egypt’s military. Although he has vowed to lead Egypt through a democratic transition, there are plenty of indications that he is less than enthusiastic about democracy and that he intends to hold on to political power himself.Let's see... where are the threats to Egypt? South (Sudan's Islamofascists, Somalia's Islamofascists, various other Iranian-backed Islamofascists in n Africa), west (Libya), and internal (Islamofascists like the Muzzie Bro-hood). Where's the money to pay for the food and resources to provide employment? Saudi Arabia and its oil.
really? because what I see in Egyot is not the melding but the struggle and schism between secular “militarism” vs Islamism. One might argue that had the Shah’s military of western-educated and western-influenced technocrats resisted the mullahs, Iran may not have slid into becoming an authoritarian theocracy that devoured them, their families and fortunes
Egypt’s military officers, with their western influenced training and education and contacts, probably do represent a class from which western influenced political leadership may develop, much more so than that slimy pool of “muslim brothers” with their smooth talk, radical idols, and murderous intolerance
If the gulf between the Egyptian military & the MB is as you say, then there’s a chance for a return to stability kind of like the classic political cycle in Turkey, but which itself is threatened by Erdogan’s purging of his Kemalist generals.
But a repeat of the 1979 mullahvelution is still possible.
I think the biggest impediment to the Egyptian military being able to rrestore stability is the US government! and obama’s islamist .... advisors? If the guyptina militart restores stability it makes their lose face and makes a joke of their embrace of the “arab spring” look bad (which it is... as if terrorists on twitter are the hope for the future)
No, this cabal of US islamists and incompetents and outright radical loons like John Brennan Susan Rice John Kerry Samantha Power - and God knows how many more at State Department CIA etc - are more than advisors
They are unelected policy makers implementing an incredibly leftist naive world agenda that affects our nation, our image, our security and future, and that of many other nations in this region and the world
The last time the US leadership and policymakers were this bad, incompetent and frankly dangerous, was under Jimmy Carter.... and as a result a brave Egyptian named Anwar Sadat took matters into his own hands and made peace with Israel
Turkey’s going to have to get rid of Erdogan; I don’t think popular uprisings will do it, although they might be sufficiently distracting that a well-motivated and sufficiently tight-lipped group of commandos could go barbecue his stupid ass and seize broadcasting long enough to announce his, uh, overthrow.
Erdogan’s managed to diplomatically and militarily isolate Turkey from all of its neighbors, including Iran, which he’d been wooing for at least a few years prior. Since he doesn’t learn very well from his own mistakes, he’ll have to be removed by force.
Israel’s still around because it kicked the living crap out of vastly numerically superior enemies. In the 1973 war, when Israel suffered terribly, the victory was nearly miraculous — Syria and Egypt had complete surprise, loads of preparations, and good planning, and were defeated in detail and in succession despite all that. Sadat wanted to recover Egypt’s territory (the Sinai) through negotiation, after taking back a strip of it that could be defended under their SAM umbrella, and could only be dislodged at very great cost to the Israelis; Assad in Syria had no notion that this was the plan, but regardless, lost over 1000 tanks in the ground assault. Sadat also wanted to eject the Russians and reject the Khartoum Declaration (the four no’s) by make peace with Israel.
Jordan concluded a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, but King Hussein got mealy-mouthed about Saddam’s missiles flying over Jordanian territory during the Gulf War. Jordan’s new king is as nimble as his father was, but nasty as hell. Jordan could go the same way as Lebanon and Syria.
The Saudis have the same problem as the rest of the muzzie world, which is to say, the country isn’t all one thing. Besides the sectarian divide between Shia (who live almost entirely in the oil patch) and Sunni (the rest of the country), there are numerous splinter sects, and that includes the Wahhabi; the ruling family, famously described by Ariel Sharon as “those 3000 corrupt princes”, are jealous of their own power and the Wahhabi are yet another sect to be watched and kept in line. When the Saudi (to borrow from Jim Morrison) sh!thouse goes up in flames it’ll burn for a long while.
The best foreign policy is to give unfailing support to Israel while making sure the rest of the region stays at each other’s throats. And that’s pretty easy to do, because they already live that way and have for centuries.
Nasser once claimed that Egypt was the only country in the Middle East (he didn’t recognize Israel), that the rest were merely “tribes with flags”.
> What do you think are the chances of ME getting crazy again or do you think the military starting to take over in Egypt a good thing (compared to the MB) that it is?
*Getting* crazy *again*?!? ;’) They’re always crazy. I noticed news (here, or maybe in a search result) that crime had declined in some country in S America perhaps, and the decline was attributed to their removal (a few years ago) of lead in gasoline. That got my thinking...
The Egyptian military kept enough of a grip on the political machinery to avoid getting marginalized and then radicalized; the secular nature of the Egyptian military is at least as strong as that of the Turkish military; both however are Islamic nations, and suppression and oppression of the Copts has been going on since the *real* coup in Egypt, which was the Islamic invasion and takeover in the Middle Ages.
Egypt’s military has its hands full right now. Their first priorities will be to run all the muzzie bro-hood jackoffs to ground in Egypt proper, while mollifying the great middle with assurances that Islam will continue to be respected (as it was, indeed, under Mubarak; he did that a little too much, particularly as he aged, and he was no great thinker either). After that, the Sinai will be cleaned out, and the Mubarak plan to irrigate it and move at least a few million Egyptians into it will resume.
http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/9701/09/egypt.canal/
It would be nice if they’d open up the entire Sinai to “Palestinian” settlement, iow, offer them 5 or 10 hectare lots if they agree to stay for some minimum number of years and swear allegiance to Egypt. That would solve about four different problems — in Egypt, in Israel, and in the Middle East.
Beyond that, it’s contigencies — probably involves dealing with Sudan, Iranian influence in northern and central Africa, Libyan chaos, and getting foreign tourists to return. Also, if they do resume the Peace Canal project, that flap over the Ethiopian dam project may reemerge. It’s literally no threat at all to Egypt or Sudan, but the destruction of Ethiopia is a long-term goal of the Islamofascists, and some people will be happy to go along for the ride.
For example, from an ex-FReeper:
https://www.google.com/search?q=Megalommatis%20Ethiopia&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
Rand Slams Congress for Funding Egypt's Generals: 'How Does Your Conscience Feel Now?'Sen. Rand Paul is hammering his fellow senators for keeping billions in financial aid flowing to Egypt's military -- even as Cairo's security forces massacre anti-government activists. [by "anti-government activists" is meant church-burning Christian-murdering jihadists][Posted on 08/15/2013 5:44:10 PM PDT by Hoodat]
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.