Posted on 10/10/2013 10:02:13 AM PDT by neverdem
Just months ago Pentagon officials dismissed the idea of a total pullout from Afghanistan. Today we are on the verge of ending negotiations on our future there, leading to the “zero option.” Total withdrawal.
If we execute a zero option, this is my basic worst-case prediction, which is not far from my most likely scenario prediction:
President Karzai and his government seem to believe we need Afghanistan and will not abandon him, or that we will cave to ridiculous demands. We will not. Remember Iraq. Look at our own current shutdown. The US is in serial crisis mode and Afghanistan is overplaying its hand.
Both the Afghan and US governments frequently behave irrationally, and some US decision-makers are looking for any excuse to drop Afghanistan. Psychologically, we are in a perfect position to negotiate, regardless of the security consequence.
Without support, the Afghan economy will collapse.
Following the economic collapse and without Coalition military support, the Afghan government will also collapse.
If it remains vaguely intact, the Afghan “government” will be ineffective outside of Kabul.
Kandahar City will be the Taliban capital. No international trade will occur in the south without Taliban approval.
The Afghans most capable of running the country will flee for places like Dubai. Many have been gone for years. Nobody will be capable of running the country. The billions of dollars’ worth of roads and infrastructure we built will begin to crumble. The cell phones Afghans have fallen in love with might soon be out of order...
(Excerpt) Read more at michaelyon-online.com ...
We are never going to win a war again period.
We apparently signed that right away in the “Geneva Conventions on Land Warfare.” As they are currently interpreted, they say that we can’t do anything that might actually allow us to decisively win a war. I can’t imagine them being re-interpreted again in a rational fashion, nor can I imagine us ever doing the smart thing and withdrawing from them or ignoring them altogether.
The solution to Afghanistan is in Mecca.
And the solution to Mecca is in a silo somewhere in the midwest! Or, maybe in a sub gliding quietly under the surface of the north Atlantic.
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