Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Another flawed poll, another reason to expect Republicans to cave in the shutdown battle?
Washington Examiner ^ | October 13, 2013 | MARK TAPSCOTT

Posted on 10/13/2013 11:28:06 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

If reports of Republican panic on Capitol Hill are accurate, a big reason is likely the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, which purports to show the public overwhelmingly disapproves of the GOP's role in the government shutdown.

And on the surface, the news does indeed look grim for the GOP, as explained by NBC's political editor, Mark Murray:

"The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party's popularity declining to its lowest level.

"By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96."

And worst of all, from the Republican perspective anyway, is this:

"And one year until next fall’s midterm elections, American voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled one by eight percentage points (47 percent to 39 percent), up from the Democrats’ three-point advantage last month (46 percent to 43 percent)."

But there is much less here than at first appears. For one thing, the survey is based on interviews with "adults," not "likely voters," which significantly lessens its usefulness in predicting the shutdown's impact on the 2014 election.

The sample size is only 800 when 1,000 or more is preferable because it usually boosts the confidence level in the results and lowers the margin of error.

But what really detracts from its usefulness is the fact the survey, which was conducted jointly for NBC and the Wall Street Journal by Democratic pollster Peter Hart and GOP pollster Bill McInturff, uses a seriously flawed sample.

As BlueCollarPerspective's Charles Hawkins points out, the sample is heavily over-weighted by the presence of government workers — 20 percent, which is two-and-a-half-times the rate for the general public — and there too many Democrats and too few Republicans being interviewed.

From a statistical perspective, public opinion surveys absolutely depend upon randomness in sample selection. The most accurate survey is produced when every potential respondent has exactly the same chance of being selected as every other potential respondent.

It's impossible to achieve perfect randomness, but the closer a sample gets to it, the more accurate it will be. Hart and McInturff are reputable pollsters, so it appears they simply drew what amounts to an outlier survey sample.

That makes the survey all but useless as support for strategic decisions by anybody involved in the shutdown debate. But it is perfectly consistent with the conventional wisdom of the traditional media, which is heavily skewed against the Republicans, so expect to hear it cited repeatedly in the next few days.

Go here for the complete NBC/Wall Street Journal survey result, and click here for the Hawkins analysis.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Extended News; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obamacare; polling; shutdown; weightedpolls

1 posted on 10/13/2013 11:28:07 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: All
Hawkin's Analysis
2 posted on 10/13/2013 11:32:57 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Yes they will cave. They are squishes and the Democrats know it. The only think I look forward to now is watching RINOs lose.


3 posted on 10/13/2013 11:39:14 AM PDT by AdaGray (Primary Them All)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

The GOP-E isn’t “spineless”....they actively love and admire Obama, and want Obamacare to stay so that they can play with it whenever they get into power.


4 posted on 10/13/2013 11:40:24 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Nothing is more savage and brutal than justifiably angry Americans. Don’t believe me? Ask the Germa)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
Polls are meaningless right now.

The next election is a year away.

5 posted on 10/13/2013 11:40:25 AM PDT by Pietro
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MuttTheHoople

They show that they can be hard and vicious fighters....when going after Tea Party Conservative Republicans.


6 posted on 10/13/2013 11:41:16 AM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Nothing is more savage and brutal than justifiably angry Americans. Don’t believe me? Ask the Germa)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Courtesy Mr. Smith.

7 posted on 10/13/2013 11:44:30 AM PDT by jwalsh07
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Courtesy Mr. Smith.

8 posted on 10/13/2013 11:44:41 AM PDT by jwalsh07
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

I hope you saw my rant near the end of your previous thread. I posted it near the time you posted this. Thank you for posting this beautiful supporting documentation.


9 posted on 10/13/2013 11:44:42 AM PDT by SierraWasp (I pledge to the USSA & 2 the democrazy for witch it stands, a nation with liberalism & misery 4 all!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks Cincinatus’ Wife.

Media Pushing Bogus Polls To Force GOP Cave
10/13/2013 | Me
Posted on 10/13/2013 1:50:53 AM PDT by Viennacon
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3078263/posts


10 posted on 10/13/2013 11:52:33 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's no coincidence that some "conservatives" echo the hard left.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SierraWasp

I DID!

:)


11 posted on 10/13/2013 11:56:23 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

I have to doubt the veracity of any poll NBC (the Nothing But Communist network) had a hand in.


12 posted on 10/13/2013 11:58:24 AM PDT by beelzepug (if any alphabets are watchin', I'll be coming home right after the meetin')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
Polls are meaningless right now.

The next election is a year away.

13 posted on 10/13/2013 12:03:15 PM PDT by Pietro
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: beelzepug

I neither believe, nor disbelieve this poll. It would not surprise me if it were true though. We have a majority in this country now who are quite happy to let others think for them.


14 posted on 10/13/2013 12:07:21 PM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: outofstyle
I neither believe, nor disbelieve this poll. It would not surprise me if it were true though. We have a majority in this country now who are quite happy to let others think for them.

Then read this and be informed about how it was done.

15 posted on 10/13/2013 12:10:11 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

People like to think that the WSJ is not Liberal and deceptive. That is not true. They are. And we all know what NBC is. This is a disinformation poll designed to sway opinion. Nothing more.


16 posted on 10/13/2013 12:20:11 PM PDT by Revel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

The Mainstream media, from Network News to Entertainment shows, to Late-Night comics, are just pounding on the Reps.

We knew this was coming, and we frankly have nothing to counter.

Our #1 Local NBC News station has been running TWO Shutdown sob stories with every local newscast.

Looking through a twenty-something’s phone on Friday night, she had AT LEAST 50 Tweets with the #GOPshutdown hashtag, and not a single tweet that countered it.


17 posted on 10/13/2013 12:20:33 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Well, it is what the Sheeple voted for....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: outofstyle
If any poll reflects well on the GOP, it is barely mentioned. If it trashes the GOP, it's trumpeted with great fanfare, all to cheer the low-info Obamabots and to intimidate the RINOs.
18 posted on 10/13/2013 12:43:26 PM PDT by JPG (Yes We Can morphs into Make It Hurt.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
the sycophants in the media, e.g. Fox News with Brett Bier, Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace, and Fox Business are all reporting this skewed worthless poll. I sent each and everyone of them a copy of this article, of course the damage is already down, and the mantra of “its the Republicans fault” continues unabated!

Nothing makes a rabbit run for the hole faster than the hunter showing him the gun! The old media got exactly what they wanted from this worthless poll, the Republican RINO’s are surrendering, waving the white flag and running for their holes faster than a jack rabbit with a coyote after him!

19 posted on 10/13/2013 12:59:50 PM PDT by PotatoChop (Respect is earned, not demanded by this out of control socialist government!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

There are times when you simply cannot allow polls to drive decisions particularly political ones. Kudlow is a financial whiz but when it comes to runing political campaigns should be ignored.He was wrong about Romney and he’s wrong here. The “rules” are completly different.

It blows my mind when I hear guys like Kudlow who on his 10/12 Saturday radio show cite a survey using 20% of those working for the firm its evaluating the products from,and expecting an objective answer.

Then redresses a caller because he attempted to cite the NBC/ WSJ poll composition.Dismisses what the caller is saying and attempts to shoot him down by citing other polls which differed from the NBC/WSJ result by 10 percentage points.Because in his mind the caller was wrong.

Well Mr.Kudlow, You’re wrong.


20 posted on 10/13/2013 1:11:36 PM PDT by mosesdapoet (Serious contribution pause.Please continue onto meaningless venting no one reads.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

I saw this reported on FoxNews this morning about 5 hours ago as live news. No mention of the chicanery.


21 posted on 10/13/2013 1:33:20 PM PDT by HeartlandOfAmerica (Obama&Admin=An army of deer, led by a lion is more to be feared than an army of lions led by a deer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

You mean the obamedia would lie to promote their agenda?

Pray America is waking up


22 posted on 10/13/2013 2:15:49 PM PDT by bray (Coming Jan 2014: The Republic of Texas 2022)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
That makes the survey all but useless as support for strategic decisions by anybody involved in the shutdown debate.

Yes. And the Republicans seem to be forgetting [ignoring?] that it is the Tea Partiers who will show up for the off-year elections and not the majority of the "adults" surveyed in this poll.

23 posted on 10/13/2013 2:29:26 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Workers and consumers are, of course, identical.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AdaGray

I love the pity porn.


24 posted on 10/13/2013 5:21:46 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Right Wing Yahoos taking Over the GOP --YAHOO!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Mike Darancette

Luckily he ‘French’ Republican are lazy. Many of us will work very hard to see RINOs lose.


25 posted on 10/14/2013 3:57:02 AM PDT by AdaGray (Primary Them All)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson