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The Electoral Aftermath of the Shutdown
Real Clear Politics ^ | October 18, 2013 | Sean Trende

Posted on 10/18/2013 2:32:45 PM PDT by neverdem

The consensus (more or less) among political analysts was that the GOP was likely to lose in the shutdown showdown, but was unlikely to suffer serious electoral consequences. The first prediction appears to be the case (but see Peter Beinart's smart contrarian take). How about the second one?

It is early, but what evidence we have seems consistent with the idea that the GOP didn’t take on much electoral water from this loss. This isn’t to say that there isn’t any evidence that the shutdown hurt Republicans, but the idea that their prospects were seriously jeopardized is thin.

Start with Wednesday night’s Senate election in New Jersey. Democrat Cory Booker defeated Republican Steve Lonegan by just over 10 points, 54.6 percent to 44.3 percent. This result is right in the middle of previous Republican gubernatorial and Senate performances in the state (gubernatorial races are in odd years; Senate races are typically in even years):

In fact, the result was closer to John Kerry’s 2004 victory margin (6.7 points) than to Barack Obama’s 2012 margin (17.8 points).

To be clear, this was an off-year special election held on a Wednesday. We’d probably expect a drop-off in Democratic performance given this, especially from Obama’s numbers.

But Lonegan was a problematic candidate: a “true conservative” running unabashedly as such. Booker has been tagged a rising Democratic superstar, who also should have theoretically benefited from his status as mayor of the state’s largest city. Indeed, Essex County was one of three counties where Booker ran roughly even with the president (Bergen and Hudson, also in northern New Jersey, are the other two).

This isn’t a bad showing for a Democrat. It’s about what you would expect in neutral circumstances in the state. But that’s just the point: If the bottom were dropping out...

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Massachusetts; US: New Jersey; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: corybooker; johnkerry; massachusetts; newjersey; peterbeinart; seantrende; shutdown; stevelonegan; teaparty; tedcruz; texas

1 posted on 10/18/2013 2:32:45 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem
I think the GOP loss was far far larger than any of the political pundits are saying. The old saw of losing the battle but winning the war does not hold here. The Republicans lost both the battle and the war. I seriously doubt many Tea Party Republicans are going to be be Republicans much longer. Tea Partyers, yes but not Republicans. The Democrats won a political battle. The Republicans lost the heart and soul of their party.
2 posted on 10/18/2013 2:50:02 PM PDT by Tupelo (There are no Democrats or Republicans in Washington, just millionaires protecting their turf.)
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To: neverdem
Booker has been tagged a rising Democratic superstar

And probably will be until being indicted. RATS are notorious for dropping support for anyone who produces bad optics.

3 posted on 10/18/2013 2:58:21 PM PDT by Libloather (The epitome of civility.)
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To: neverdem
It wasn't that big a deal. The GOP is roughly where it was just after Obama was re-elected in 2012. The generic ballot numbers bear this out:

Generic Congressional Vote

Polling Data

Poll Date Sample Democrats Republicans Spread
RCP Average 10/4 - 10/13 -- 46.8 41.3 Democrats +5.5
Pew Research 10/9 - 10/13 1259 RV 49 43 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports 10/7 - 10/13 3500 LV 45 38 Democrats +7
Democracy Corps (D) 10/6 - 10/8 860 LV 47 43 Democrats +4
PPP (D) 10/4 - 10/6 1000 RV 46 41 Democrats +5

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Democrats Republicans Spread
RCP Average 10/4 - 10/13 -- 46.8 41.3 Democrats +5.5
Pew Research 10/9 - 10/13 1259 RV 49 43 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports 10/7 - 10/13 3500 LV 45 38 Democrats +7
Democracy Corps (D) 10/6 - 10/8 860 LV 47 43 Democrats +4
PPP (D) 10/4 - 10/6 1000 RV 46 41 Democrats +5
Rasmussen Reports 9/30 - 10/6 3500 LV 40 40 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 9/23 - 9/29 3500 LV 42 38 Democrats +4
Quinnipiac 9/23 - 9/29 1497 RV 43 34 Democrats +9
PPP (D) 9/25 - 9/26 790 RV 45 40 Democrats +5
Rasmussen Reports 9/16 - 9/22 3500 LV 40 37 Democrats +3
Rasmussen Reports 9/9 - 9/15 3500 LV 38 38 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 9/2 - 9/8 3500 LV 39 39 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 8/26 - 9/1 3500 LV 39 37 Democrats +2
Rasmussen Reports 8/19 - 8/25 3500 LV 38 39 Republicans +1
Rasmussen Reports 8/12 - 8/18 3500 LV 38 38 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 8/5 - 8/11 3500 LV 39 39 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 7/29 - 8/4 3500 LV 38 41 Republicans +3
Quinnipiac 7/28 - 7/31 1468 RV 40 36 Democrats +4
Rasmussen Reports 7/22 - 7/28 3500 LV 39 38 Democrats +1
Rasmussen Reports 7/15 - 7/21 3500 LV 40 38 Democrats +2
Democracy Corps (D) 7/10 - 7/15 841 LV 43 44 Republicans +1
Rasmussen Reports 7/8 - 7/14 3500 LV 38 39 Republicans +1
Quinnipiac 6/28 - 7/8 2014 RV 39 34 Democrats +5
Rasmussen Reports 7/1 - 7/7 3500 LV 39 40 Republicans +1
Rasmussen Reports 6/24 - 6/30 3500 LV 38 39 Republicans +1
Rasmussen Reports 6/17 - 6/23 3500 LV 40 39 Democrats +1
Rasmussen Reports 6/10 - 6/16 3500 LV 39 39 Tie
PPP (D) 6/11 - 6/13 603 RV 47 40 Democrats +7
Rasmussen Reports 6/3 - 6/9 3500 LV 40 38 Democrats +2
Rasmussen Reports 5/27 - 6/2 3500 LV 40 40 Tie
Quinnipiac 5/22 - 5/28 1419 RV 38 38 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 5/20 - 5/26 3500 LV 41 39 Democrats +2
ABC News/Wash Post 5/16 - 5/19 RV 48 40 Democrats +8
Rasmussen Reports 5/13 - 5/19 3500 LV 39 40 Republicans +1
Rasmussen Reports 5/6 - 5/11 3500 LV 40 38 Democrats +2
PPP (D) 5/6 - 5/9 1099 RV 45 43 Democrats +2
Rasmussen Reports 4/29 - 5/5 3500 LV 40 38 Democrats +2
Quinnipiac 4/25 - 4/29 1471 RV 41 37 Democrats +4
Rasmussen Reports 4/22 - 4/28 3500 LV 39 40 Republicans +1
Rasmussen Reports 4/15 - 4/21 3500 LV 41 39 Democrats +2
Rasmussen Reports 4/8 - 4/14 3500 LV 42 38 Democrats +4
Rasmussen Reports 4/1 - 4/7 3500 LV 41 38 Democrats +3
Quinnipiac 3/26 - 4/1 1711 RV 43 35 Democrats +8
PPP (D) 3/27 - 3/30 1247 RV 46 42 Democrats +4
Rasmussen Reports 3/25 - 3/31 3500 LV 44 37 Democrats +7
Rasmussen Reports 3/18 - 3/24 3500 LV 43 38 Democrats +5
Rasmussen Reports 3/11 - 3/17 3500 LV 43 38 Democrats +5
Democracy Corps (D) 3/9 - 3/12 840 LV 46 42 Democrats +4
Rasmussen Reports 3/4 - 3/10 3500 LV 43 40 Democrats +3
Rasmussen Reports 2/25 - 3/3 3500 LV 43 40 Democrats +3
Rasmussen Reports 2/18 - 2/24 3500 LV 43 38 Democrats +5
Rasmussen Reports 2/11 - 2/17 3500 LV 43 37 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports 2/4 - 2/10 3500 LV 42 39 Democrats +3
PPP (D) 1/31 - 2/3 800 RV 45 45 Tie
Rasmussen Reports 1/28 - 2/3 3000 LV 44 38 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports 1/21 - 1/27 3000 LV 45 37 Democrats +8
Rasmussen Reports 1/14 - 1/20 3000 LV 44 39 Democrats +5
Democracy Corps (D) 1/10 - 1/14 852 LV 46 42 Democrats +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/7 - 1/13 3000 LV 43 37 Democrats +6
PPP (D) 1/3 - 1/6 1100 RV 47 41 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports 1/2 - 1/6 3000 LV 44 38 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports 12/26 - 12/30 3000 LV 46 35 Democrats +11
Rasmussen Reports 12/17 - 12/22 3500 LV 44 38 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports 12/10 - 12/16 3500 LV 46 38 Democrats +8
Rasmussen Reports 12/3 - 12/9 3500 LV 46 36 Democrats +10
Politico/GWU/Battleground 12/2 - 12/6 1000 LV 45 42 Democrats +3
Rasmussen Reports 11/26 - 12/2 3500 LV 47 36 Democrats +11
Rasmussen Reports 11/19 - 11/25 3500 LV 45 40 Democrats +5
Rasmussen Reports 11/12 - 11/18 3500 LV 45 40 Democrats +5
Rasmussen Reports 11/5 - 11/11 3500 LV 45 42 Democrats +3

4 posted on 10/18/2013 3:02:39 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: neverdem

I really wonder how many seats in Congress are truly up for grabs? I think most districts are either conservative or liberal and there isn’t much mix.

I’d bet that there are 12 or less seats that will actually be “in play” come next November.


5 posted on 10/18/2013 3:07:00 PM PDT by woweeitsme
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To: Tupelo

I think the GOP loss was far far larger than any of the political pundits are saying.


I disagree. This recent Budget and ObamaCare battle was not about winning or losing , it was about strategic positioning.

Republicans took the country to the media manufactured brink to protect the country from ObamaCare and fiscal irresponsibility, which was all that could be done in the time frame.

THe Democrats and Obama have done everything they can to hide the true magnitude of the ObamaCare disaster.

In 90 days, when the budget authorization needs to be renewed, the country may have amuch more negative opinion of ObamaCare, the fiscal irresponsibility of the Democrats, the ObamaCare disaster, and Obama’s sinking personal popularity will be more apparent to the country.

This may give the Republicans some leverage.

It is also possible that the American people will stay in their fog, in which case the country is screwed and there is nothing the Republicans can do to turn things around.

The problem is not the Republicans, it is an American electorate that elected a guy like Obama to be President in the first place and then re elected him to a second term despite the incompetence, malfeasance and petty divisiveness of his first term.


6 posted on 10/18/2013 3:10:03 PM PDT by rdcbn
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To: woweeitsme

In a year’s time it is going to be impossible for the Dems to get a net of 17 seats.

With amnesty on the cards the GOP will gain seats in Arizona that were spoiled by Libertarian candidates and turnout.

I hope Allen West runs again in the same district.


7 posted on 10/18/2013 3:11:54 PM PDT by ObamahatesPACoal
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To: Tupelo
I think the GOP loss was far far larger than any of the political pundits are saying.

I'm surprised to that you think this. I never thought the battle was winnable. The left has the White House, the Senate and the media. We have the House. I always thought this was a forlorn hope, a Charge of the Light Brigade. Worthwhile for messaging purposes, but certain to go down to defeat. It wasn't a shameful defeat - victory was never in the cards. House GOP pols are simply back where they were before the shutdown, having demonstrated to the base that they tried, and to upper-income liberals and independents about to have their premiums go to the moon, that the GOP tried to keep that from happening. In the privacy of the voting booth in 2014, I suspect a lot of them will vote for the lesser of two evils - the GOP.

8 posted on 10/18/2013 3:12:05 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Tupelo
the heart and soul of their party

I agree. In all of the polls show dissatisfaction with the GOP rising, they failed to distinguish those conservatives who were dissatisfied with the GOP for being craven cowards on the battlefield.

McCain, Graham, Alexander, Cornyn, King, and all the rest of the surrender monkeys have nothing but my total disdain.

9 posted on 10/18/2013 3:15:26 PM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: Tupelo
The Republicans lost the heart and soul of their party.

The Republicans exposed the heart and soul of their party.

To be more precise, this battle forced out in the open the divides within the party.

I don't see this as a loss. It may be a loss for a few Senators who were on the wrong side of the fight, but if they are from safe states and are replaced by stouter folk, then it's a trade up.

-PJ

10 posted on 10/18/2013 3:17:51 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: neverdem

The GOPe did NOTHING to engage vulnerable Dems during the months long run up to the shutdown or during it. If they take a hit it is COMPLETELY on them for tip toeing through the tulips while the Dems dropped daisy cutters on them from above.


11 posted on 10/18/2013 3:20:28 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: neverdem

I have heard that Lonegan got zero support from the state party and the Governor. I am going to have resist spitting in the face of the next person who says we have to elect RINO’s because they are better than the Democrats.

They are the same thing.


12 posted on 10/18/2013 3:21:04 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: rdcbn
It is also possible that the American people will stay in their fog...

That's where I would bet my money. I cannot see the collective dumbbells that constitute the American electorate changing, not in my lifetime.

13 posted on 10/18/2013 3:22:53 PM PDT by OldPossum ("It's" is the contraction of "it" and "is"; think about its implications.)
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To: Tupelo

If people really hate Obamacare come next November, the GOP is going to be able to say we knew this pain was coming and that’s why we tried so hard to stop it. And because of the hype over the shutdown, people will remember that they’re telling the truth.

The one thing to worry about is that the GOP is hinging everything on the reception to Obamacare. If the polls show people love Obamacare this time next year, then the GOP is in major trouble. Of course the reception is bound to be mixed.

The worrisome thing is that Obamacare is designed to put much more of the middle class on this form of welfare than Obama’s other redistribution programs. It is designed to expand his loyal mooching voter base beyond the lower classes and up another economic tier. Hence why so many of the sign-up stories are from people who already could afford insurance but are now getting an Obamacare/taxpayer-funded discount. Every new government check that’s sent out is a new vote in the Democrats’ pocket.

It was very important to stop Obamacare any way we could before it took hold. Because this month’s plan didn’t work for whatever reason, the Democrats more than likely got a step closer to cementing permanent power. All the more reason though why this had to be tried no matter the long odds in successfully stopping Obamacare. Worst case scenario is that our electoral prospects were damned if we did and damned if we didn’t.


14 posted on 10/18/2013 3:24:09 PM PDT by JediJones (The #1 Must-see Filibuster of the Year: TEXAS TED AND THE CONSERVATIVE CRUZ-ADE)
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To: GeronL
I have heard that Lonegan got zero support from the state party and the Governor.

That's what's impressive about this. Lonegan got 45% with 1/10 Booker's money. In the midst of a shutdown that Lonegan supported vocally. I figured on a 20% loss. Or worse. NJ can be salvaged. The GOP just needs a more photogenic candidate. I like Lonegan, but I think a better-looking candidate could have made it closer or even won.

15 posted on 10/18/2013 3:27:26 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei

The GOP doesn’t need a more photogenic candidate. The GOP needs to stop acting against conservatives and fail to fund and support them, then ask for us to support their RINO’s


16 posted on 10/18/2013 3:33:33 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: neverdem

So... it’s business as usual in Washington; no one appears to be hurt by all the Mickey Mouse.

The only one to suffer adverse consequences is America.


17 posted on 10/18/2013 3:38:27 PM PDT by Jack Hammer (American)
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To: neverdem

Lonegan got nothing from the Republican Party. His performance should encourage people. It shows a wave of Tea Party support.

Lonegen 2014!


18 posted on 10/18/2013 4:36:26 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: rdcbn
The problem is not the Republicans, it is an American electorate that elected a guy like Obama to be President in the first place and then re elected him to a second term despite the incompetence,



No, 4 million conservatives elected O. They did not vote in the last election and if they had voted against him it would have been an embarrassing loss to O. Instead they did not vote.. which was an actual vote for O.

Such children also cost us SCOTUS as O will get to appoint 2 to 4 justices to SCOTUS. The libs wanted that as much as they wanted O back in office. See my tag line.

19 posted on 10/18/2013 8:11:09 PM PDT by JSteff (It was ALL about SCOTUS.. We are DOOMED for several generations. . Who cares? The Dem's do & voted!)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks neverdem.

Is The Shutdown Actually A Republican Victory? Op-Ed Suggests Radically Alternative Narrative
inquisitr.com | 10/15/13
Posted on Fri Oct 18 09:56:45 2013 by cotton1706
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3080525/posts


20 posted on 10/18/2013 8:17:49 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's no coincidence that some "conservatives" echo the hard left.)
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To: JSteff
...4 million conservatives elected O. They did not vote in the last election...

There is no basis for such a claim.

21 posted on 10/18/2013 8:36:38 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: JSteff
The problem is not the Republicans, it is an American electorate that elected a guy like Obama to be President in the first place and then re elected him to a second term despite the incompetence,


No, 4 million conservatives elected O. They did not vote in the last election and if they had voted against him it would have been an embarrassing loss to O. Instead they did not vote.. which was an actual vote for O.

Such children also cost us SCOTUS as O will get to appoint 2 to 4 justices to SCOTUS. The libs wanted that as much as they wanted O back in office. See my tag line.


I consider them part of the moronic electorate.

I was referring to the hapless Republican elected officials .

It's hard to take a firm stand on issues when you don't have the political support of the voters back home.

They face fanatical opposition form the Obama zombies and can't rely on the conservative voters back home to have the f**king brains to realize that you don't elect Republicans for ideological cosmic purity or to cater in lock step to every whim of your 1001 point agenda - you elect Republicans to protect you from Democrats.

Especially to protect America from the Obama his merry band of destroy the country from within revolutionary Marxist faction of the Democrat Party that and

After seeing the results of the 2012 election, can you blame any Republican elected official who looks at the results and figures that it every man for himself time.

22 posted on 10/18/2013 8:41:27 PM PDT by rdcbn
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To: neverdem

They are going to lose all state offices in Virginia come November. GOP are being outspent and lots of Government employees in Northern Virginia. the shutdown didn’t cause it, but it is certainly not helping. The Media is going to be all over it and scaring Rinos with the outcome.


23 posted on 10/18/2013 8:55:45 PM PDT by ClayinVA ("Those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it")
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To: JSteff
No, 4 million conservatives elected O. They did not vote in the last election and if they had voted against him it would have been an embarrassing loss to O. Instead they did not vote.. which was an actual vote for O.

Bullshit.

Blame whoever. The reality is that no matter how polished Romney was by the end of the season, he was not enough in contrast to Obama to energize an electorate that did not want Obama/Romneycare.

A vote for "none of the above" is just that. You could just as well say that by not voting for Obama they voted for Romney, too.

24 posted on 10/19/2013 3:38:00 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: rdcbn
...you elect Republicans to protect you from Democrats

Well, they'd better get their collective arse in gear, or that was a waste of my time. Their batting average sucks.

25 posted on 10/19/2013 3:48:41 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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