Michigan Senate Seat No Longer Safe for Democrats

Roll Call ^

[ClaytonP]

Peters is the likely Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Republicans don’t need to win Michigan to get the majority in the Senate, but the Wolverine State could become a serious takeover target later next year.

After more than three decades, Democratic Sen. Carl Levin announced that he would not seek re-election. Instead of competitive primaries filled with ambitious candidates, it looks like both parties have settled on their nominees for next fall. At this point, the general election looks like it will be between Democratic Rep. Gary Peters and Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

Early public polling shows a competitive race with both candidates lacking statewide name identification. A September EPIC-MRA poll showed Peters ahead, 38 percent to 37 percent. A mid-October automated survey from the Democratic Public Policy Polling firm had the congressman with a larger advantage, 43 percent to 36 percent. And a recent automated survey by the Revsix, a Republican firm, and Michigan Blueprint Strategies, a Democratic firm, for Inside Michigan Politics also had Peters leading a general election ballot test, 43 percent to 38 percent.

Democrats start the general election with the advantage. Republicans have only won one of the past dozen Senate races in Michigan, and that was in 1994. But 1994 was also the last time Michigan saw an open Senate seat.

Land should become a credible candidate who could take advantage of another favorable GOP environment, should one develop. But she is also running from a state office that hasn’t traditionally been a launching pad for the U.S. Senate.

Make no mistake, Peters has shown remarkable political agility and starts this race with the edge, but this open seat should no longer be considered safe. You can read a full analysis of the race in the recent November 7 edition ($) of The Rothenberg Political Report.

The Michigan Senate race is now rated Democrat Favored according to Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call.

[Fai Mao]

Not a direct reply to WashingtonSource just a general question.

How does the loss of population in Detroit impact Michigan politics?

Does the loss of several hundred thousand votes from the greater Detroit area mean that Michigan is no longer a dark blue state?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yes. Two polls were run in September, and it’s a disaster for McGeehan:

Harper
Capito 77%
McGeehan 7%

PPP
Capito 72%
McGeehan 4%

[jjotto]

Like all big cities, the growing underclass is moving farther out into the suburbs, not going away.

[scrabblehack]

As I recall he was not expected to win the 2012 CD14 primary. His district is 57% black.

I realize a statewide race is a different story.

[njslim]

In my state Of NJ only way ‘Rat senator leaves office
is feet first or in handcuffs.....

[scrabblehack]

Wayne County always was Democrat. On the other hand, loss of population in Detroit has not led to fewer votes.

Spencer Abraham was fairly conservative...Robert Griffin (not the DC QB!) not so much...but yes, the seat is winnable.

[cripplecreek]

On the other hand, loss of population in Detroit has not led to fewer votes.

Those days are over now that Johnson is SOS.

[nascarnation]

I’m sure (if he wants to) there will be some lucrative lobbying or think tank slot available. Or if Hillary is elected a cabinet post.

[NorthMountain]

The very little polling I have seen has Capito ahead significantly. I’m not surprised, she’s well known in the WV 2nd district; at this point polling is IMO mostly name recognition. McGeehan seems willing and able to actually campaign (unlike John Raese whom I reluctantly supported in the past), so support now may very well pay off. IMO.

[Viennacon]

I’ve heard his speeches. Total snoozefest. If he entered the senate, he would undoubtedly be the most boring skidmark there.

[Impy]

I take it from this ridiculous headline that this is Rothenberg's first update on the race since the seat became open a while ago, because DUH.

The Michigan Senate race is now rated Democrat Favored

It's lean rat at worst, my initial rating is tossup. As it's been since MONTHS ago when Levin announced he was retiring.

[cripplecreek]

Things are still pretty quiet because the election is still a year off. Pure PAC is running ads against Peters though.

Pure Washington

[1010RD]

That’s important. Wound early, wound often. Set the voter’s mind. We need all the help we can get.