Posted on 11/30/2013 12:34:27 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For over five years, a consistent media claim has been that former Alaska governor Sarah Palin hurt Republican presidential nominee John McCain in 2008 and that he would have fared better with anyone else on the ticket besides her.
A recent study by political science professors at Bradley University debunks this claim concluding instead that Palin was a net plus for McCain including with independents and moderates.
The first serious study on this matter was conducted by University of Central Florida political science professor Jonathan Knuckey and was published in Political Research Quarterly in April 2011:
Using data from the American National Election Studies, this article addresses whether the Sarah Palin affected vote choice in 2008. Findings indicate not only that evaluations of Palin were a strong predictor of vote choice—even when controlling for confounding variables—but also that Palin’s effect on vote choice was the largest of any vice presidential candidate in elections examined dating back to 1980. Theoretically, the article offers support for the proposition that a running mate is an important short-term force affecting voting behavior. Substantively, the article suggests that Palin may have contributed to a loss of support among “swing voters.”
In their response published in PRQ in October, Bradley University's Edward M. Burmila and Josh M. Ryan took Knuckey's data to reach a far different conclusion:
Our analysis shows that the data do not support these findings. We find that respondent evaluations of Palin have a positive effect on McCain vote choice, even among independents and moderates, and Palin’s effect on the election outcome is comparable with ten of the last fifteen vice-presidential nominees.
Burmilia and Ryan introduced their study:
In a recent issue of this journal, "The 'Palin Effect‘ in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election" by Jonathan Knuckey addressed a substantively interesting question: did the selectionof Sarah Palin negatively affect John McCain‘s share of the vote (Knuckey 2012)? In line withthe conventional post-election narrative and other research on the ―Palin Effect‖ (see Elis, Hillygus, and Nie 2010), the article concludes that Palin hurt McCain among key moderate andindependent voters. Specifically, the article makes three claims. First, Palin had a measurable, independent effect on the presidential popular vote in 2008. Second, she hurt the McCain campaign by driving away independent and moderate voters. Third, Palin is a uniquely divisive figure and her effect on the presidential vote was larger than any recent vice-presidential nominee.
Burmilia and Ryan debunked claim one:
The interaction term is not significant and there is no feeling thermometer rating for Palin that produces a negative and statistically significant slope on McCain vote choice for independents or moderates. In fact, the slope is positive, though not statistically significant for all Palin feeling thermometer values. For Republicans, any rating of Palin results in a statistically significant positive effect on McCain vote choice although there is no increase in effect size as a Republican rates Palin more positively. Excepting independents who are neutral toward Palin (near 50 on the thermometer), the positive effect of Palin rating on vote choice among independents is not statistically different from Republicans. The same is true for ideology. There is never a statistically significant negative effect of feelings toward Palin on McCain vote choice conditional on ideology. As before, there are no statistically significant differences between conservatives and moderates. The substantive interpretation is clear: the positive relationship between McCain vote choice and feelings for Palin is not conditional on party identification or ideology. Not only is there no negative effect for independent voters on feelings toward Palin, there is no meaningful difference between Republicans and independents on how feelings toward Palin affected McCain vote choice. Our analysis reaches a different conclusion from the original paper; we find that the positive relationship between the Palin feeling thermometer and the likelihood of voting for McCain does not depend on a voter‘s ideology or party affiliation. Therefore the results call into question the major conclusions of the paper; Palin did not have a negative effect on McCain‘s vote share overall, nor did she result in ―eroded support for McCain among critical `swing voters‘ such as Independents and moderates, (2012: 286-287).
The study's conclusion:
Sarah Palin was a highly visible and polarizing figure in the 2008 presidential election. She generated media attention and attracted praise and criticism beyond what is usually given to vice-presidential nominees. It is logical to assume, as popular post-election wisdom did, that her impact on the outcome of the election was also greater than previous running mates. "The 'Palin Effect' in the 2008 Presidential Election" uses survey data to support that conclusion. Our reading of the article respectfully argues that the data do not support the key findings, which are:
1. That there is a negative conditional effect of feelings toward Palin on likelihood of a McCain vote among independents and moderates. We find that using marginal effects, as is appropriate for cross-sectional data, shows that Palin had a positive effect on McCain vote choice, and based on our model specification, may have had a positive, conditional relationship for independent voters.
2. That Palin‘s impact on vote choice was the largest among all recent vice-presidential candidates. We find that when confidence intervals are included, Palin‘s effect was not necessarily the largest among the nominees since 1972.
As such, the Palin-hating media are again wrong.
Color me very unsurprised.
No kidding. As an addendum to my earlier post about how Palin’s selection boosted my enthusiasm to levels I hadn’t experienced since Reagan’s days, it was the aftermath involving the loathesome GOP/RNC’s complete backstabbing of Palin that totally destroyed my opinion of the Republican Party. Had been an exclusive GOP supporter and voter my entire life, but after this, I lost every tiny shred of trust, faith, and respect I once had for the GOP.
Same for me. She was as electrifying at the convention as Ronald Reagan in his 1964 convention speech. And both times I said, “The Republicans nominated the wrong person, they’re going to lose.”
Read my tagline.
Before the RNC convention, McCain was behind about 8 pts. Post Palin convention speech, McCain was up 4 pts.....a 12 pts swing.....and that was all Palin.
Before Palin, McCain rallies got a few hundred. With Palin, they had to move to bigger venues as she drew tens of thousands.
At the 2008 financial crisis, McCain shut down the campaign, went into prevent defense mode and used Sarah as a “fall guy prop”.
McCain simply gave up and got some of the worst advice ever from losers Steve Schmidt and Nicole Wallace.
I did not vote for John McCain in 2008. I voted for Sarah Palin. It’s not my fault McCain was also on the ticket.
Duh is right. One can easily envision the dimensions
of McCain’s historic loss without Mrs. Palin.
An Obama mandate would have been claimed, it was any
way.
I voted for Sarah.
I hoped the old Manchurian Candidate would sod off in his term, and she would become President.
Sarah was worth at least 10 million votes for McDogPoop.
Sarah will be President No. 45.
She has more testicular fortitude than the entire GOP-E.
All I know, is that when it came to the vote, I voted for Sarah! McNuts be damned!
How could there be any doubt?
Exactly so!
Thanks for the ping.
See my 36 & 43.
So did I. I was going to sit it out. McCain picked Sarah so I voted Republican. I would say that she doubled or tripled the votes MCCain got.
Palin became his political piñata for the left and the GOP to beat on in effect, and his own staff willingly participated at taking their turn at bat on her.
bump
You forgot that Sarah was the rainmaker who brought in the money to fund his senate relection campaign.
This statistical work has already been done and the answer is:
Sarah added 13% to McCain’s totals thereby avoiding a humiliating blow out.
We owe her, not the other way around.
Sarah Palin was the only reason for any optimism over the last 6 years.
Sarah Palin,was the only reason I voted for the old fart McCain..I was not going to vote until she came into the picture..I just had this warm feeling about her she is a beautiful intelligent woman that could get this country back to where we all are proud to be Americans again. It is a shame what those bastards did to her and when I say bastards I mean McCain and his loony toon bunch..
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