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Why Obamacare Cannot Succeed
Townhall.com ^ | January 5, 2014 | Bruce Bialosky

Posted on 01/05/2014 7:57:20 AM PST by Kaslin

Now that Obamacare has actually been unleashed on the unsuspecting American public, there is mass speculation about whether it will succeed as a program. Each political side presents its arguments with many former supporters caught in the middle. But if you understand how insurance works, it is basic that the program cannot work without even more coercion than is in the law as presently constituted.

Prior to the passing of this massive law, there was a basic pattern how health insurance matters worked in most states, which is where these decisions were made. The state had an insurance commissioner to oversee insurance companies. The state legislatures would establish laws regarding health insurance policies which were far more extensive than for auto or homeowners’ insurance. The legislature would be lobbied by either a special interest group or by a few “suffering” souls, and new mandatory benefits like chiropractors or maternity care would be included in each policy. Basic policies were larded up with so much that affordability became difficult for families or businesses. Choice became limited as rules became dictated and basic catastrophic policies became limited in their availability.

With all that being said, the insurance companies never breached certain taboos which they knew would break the bank and make policies soar beyond any reasonable economic sense. It was not because the insurance companies were just cold, heartless corporate animals. These benefits were not part of policies because the people who operate insurance companies knew through sophisticated mathematical analysis they would have to charge such outlandish fees that the average person would be overwhelmed financially.

In step the Democrats of Washington who had a guiding light – equality. Everyone should bear the burden equally for the minority who cannot instead of addressing those individuals in a different manner.

There are many “benefits” that were mandated by Obamacare, but three were particularly financially unsustainable or corrupting:

1. The lifting of lifetime caps on benefits: The insurance companies never did this because they cannot calculate what their potential outlays would be in the future to be able to estimate what should be properly charged to policy holders. They are shooting at an unknown and moving target. They now have no choice but to jack up premiums to cover the potential costs.

2. Pre-existing conditions: The insurance companies limited their exposure from new policyholders to highly-expensive illnesses because they would have needed to either charge exorbitant rates to limited individuals to cover the risks or massively increased the rates of others not afflicted with the same ailments.

One might ask that since employer-sponsored plans do not exclude people for pre-existing conditions now why this will be such a problem. That is because the insurance companies are able to amortize their costs over the members of the policy.

In this new situation they will just being throwing people into an insurance group without any actuarial analysis. There is a program that does that now – it is called Medicare. That is a large reason expenditures for Medicare are out of control.

3. Equal charges for the two sex – Feminists never liked that insurance companies charged more for health insurance for women than for men. But you did not hear them arguing about auto insurance premiums that were higher for young males than for young females. The reason those rates were higher was because young males drove more and had more accidents. In California, in an attempt at equality, Proposition 103 eliminated different charges for males and females, so young girls were stuck with higher insurance bills to cover their boyfriends’ errant behavior.

In the same manner, insurance companies were not charging women more because the people who operated the companies hated their mothers. It was because women use medical services more frequently than men and therefore incur higher costs. They were charging the people who used the services for what they were using.

All of these new policies as part of Obamacare are wonderful in a make-believe world. But insurance is based on mathematical calculations. Actuaries study pools of policy holders and then calculate based on historical data what the projected outlays will be, then figure overhead and profit above that. That is how they come up with a monthly fee for members of their group.

Obamacare threw that all out the window. They figured on a group of young people obtaining insurance at rates above what their medical care experience would warrant. They have caused people to have significantly increased premiums, most with much higher deductibles. That is all with what for the most part are much smaller pools of providers (doctors and hospitals).

There are some winners, but most people are financial losers. That was never explained to Americans, but now that it is hitting them personally they are revolting. That is why there are so many penalties in the law. This is not sustainable on its own without threats and coercion. You could surmise that the writers of the bill new it would be hated. That is why crafters of the legislation wrote so many penalties into the plan. If the plan is so hotsy totsy people should be running to get it -- not running away?

One of two things will happen. The program will fail on the weight of its outrageously expensive requirements, or it will remain in place but only with the addition of much higher penalties and more threats of actions against those who won’t willingly overpay for their health insurance. We don’t believe the latter will be tolerated by the American people so we are left with the former.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Government
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To: wmfights

“They didn’t and now 40, 60, 75 watt incandescent bulbs are being replaced with LED bulbs that are 10X more expensive, or fluorescent bulbs that are more expensive.”

A friend has several rental homes. When people leave now, they take all of the light bulbs.


21 posted on 01/05/2014 8:47:11 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: Kaslin

It was put out to bring single payer. It might work.


22 posted on 01/05/2014 8:48:39 AM PST by bmwcyle (People who do not study history are destine to believe really ignorant statements.)
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To: dynoman

spanish american phone tax...

But your point is still spot on.


23 posted on 01/05/2014 9:04:44 AM PST by cableguymn (It's time for a second political party.)
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To: dynoman

Prohibition was repealed because it turned out that people did not like it. Since it was imposed by Constitutional Amendment, the bar to get rid of it was really, really high. It went away.

People like Social Security, they like Medicaid, and they even like the income tax. Our convoluted tax code is a product of endless accommodation for various interest groups who believe that they have won tax concessions at the expense of others. They like that. Moreover, Democrats have turned the tax code into an income redistribution scheme that benefits their constituents at the expense of their political enemies. Democrats love the income tax.

The Democrat Party thought that people would also love Obamacare and it would bring them perpetual political power. That’s why they passed something that not a single Republican supported (not true for Social Security, Medicare, or the income tax) and something that was not supported by the American people. They thought that we would learn to love it. They were wrong.

The high water mark of public approval for Obamacare has passed. People don’t like it. The law as it currently exists is going away. The Democrats are going to offer to fix it with a single payer system and the Republicans are going to argue for a return to something on the order of antibellum health care. The fight has just begun.


24 posted on 01/05/2014 9:11:52 AM PST by centurion316
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To: Huskrrrr

The Democrat-Socialists go on and on about the need for environmental sustainability ... but ignore the reality of economic sustainability. Just one more of the inumerable intellectual lies of the Left.


25 posted on 01/05/2014 9:15:13 AM PST by glennaro
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To: loveliberty2

Those f****rs were smart!


26 posted on 01/05/2014 9:17:14 AM PST by webheart (Watch out for the bots! They will disagree with you!)
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To: Kaslin
There are some winners, but most people are financial losers.

Obama and the socialist Democrats view politics as a "zero sum" game. If they win, they believe the other side must lose. They want to punish those who disagree with them.

In business, negotiators seek "win-win" solutions that benefit all parties. There was a time in America when politicians also sought win-win solutions. Obama, Reid and Pelosi want to win and in so doing inflict damage on the other side. The Democrats zero sum game is why Washington is so polarized.

27 posted on 01/05/2014 9:21:06 AM PST by Senator_Blutarski
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To: Kaslin

fubocare cannot succeed because of one simple fact...

yes i mean fact....

roberts ruling will never allow it to succeed..

for those who call me and roberts a traitor, jus a simple thing to do...

READ THE RULING....

but alas, no...

it is far easier to listen to rush “i am the light” limbaugh than to actually read and make your own decision...

hint, rush is a gop pundit, he just hides it better than most...


28 posted on 01/05/2014 9:32:24 AM PST by joe fonebone (a socialist is just a juvenile communist)
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To: Kaslin

There are several other glaring flaws in ACA.
- extensive premium subsidies mean nothing when deductibles are 4-6k for low income people. Providers will not waive deductibles or send out bills to low income patients for elective procedures and visits; payment will be required in full at the time of service. So, in order to afford the treatment, low income/ high deductible patients will probably stop paying premiums to get some treatment. And qualifying for Medicaid would take some time to show that your annual income meets the requirement.
-the HHS wants to force providers to meet specific demands such as EMR and outcomes analyses. Apparently, this dictate would apply to commercial plans in 2015. This will force many small clinics and providers to fold because of compliance costs.
-lower Medicare reimbursement. This applies mostly to small clinics and providers. These independents will eventually go one of 3 ways: retire early, concierge/self pay, work at a large hospital group. In each case, productivity will be lower, and this will create a shortage of providers for the pool of insured patients.
A lot of people are going to pay out of pocket or else go to the ER; bankruptcy to follow.


29 posted on 01/05/2014 9:42:54 AM PST by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est. New US economy: Fascism on top, Socialism on the bottom.)
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To: Kaslin

Insurance pricing is pure math. Under the ACA, it’s the art of delusion.


30 posted on 01/05/2014 9:46:59 AM PST by LurkedLongEnough
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To: glennaro
Great point, so true!
31 posted on 01/05/2014 9:57:55 AM PST by Huskrrrr
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To: dynoman

“If you don’t believe that give me examples of anything the government passed as law that was later repealed.”

You are of course right. But the hard fact of the matter is, that the downside economics of all of these “laws” is that they will all fail without repeal. Worldwide, there isn’t enough economic activity to cover the costs of “freebies” that the world’s governments now “offer” their “citizens.” “Greece for Everyone” is looming on the horizon. So yes, the laws won’t be repealed, they will all fail along with the world economy. And it is coming a lot faster than anyone would like.


32 posted on 01/05/2014 10:44:34 AM PST by vette6387
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To: Kaslin

From Pookie's Toons.

So true.

33 posted on 01/05/2014 11:04:00 AM PST by gitmo (If your theology doesn't become your biography, what good is it?)
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To: Gen.Blather
A friend has several rental homes. When people leave now, they take all of the light bulbs.

I have the same problem and tenants complain they can't dim the lights anymore. My solution is to only put in 1 bulb in each fixture and to remind tenants that voting for Rats has consequences.

34 posted on 01/05/2014 12:04:10 PM PST by wmfights
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To: Kaslin
Why Obamacare Cannot Succeed...because of the fifteen percent of the population which didn't have insurance previously and were the excuse for this fiasco, most could have had insurance if they wanted it - they were either eligible for Medicaid and hadn't signed up, or could have afforded insurance but hadn't signed. These healthy types still won't sign, while the Medicaid eligible obviously are joining and those who were so ill previously that they couldn't get insurance are also signing up - thus the most needy and sick, who will require lots and lot s of funding, are the one flooding the program, while those relatively healthy who don't need insurance, but were being counted on to provide funding for everybody else, are still avoiding it - the need for more and more funds will skyrocket and eventually the program and/or the country will go bust - the seeds of its destruction were contained in its own creation.....
35 posted on 01/05/2014 1:45:54 PM PST by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Kaslin

It was never meant to work. Obama hi’self admitted such.


36 posted on 01/05/2014 1:51:09 PM PST by Organic Panic
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To: loveliberty2

Wow! Excellent post!!


37 posted on 01/05/2014 2:14:10 PM PST by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: Rennes Templar; Vaduz; Kaslin

The purpose of insurance markets is to “price” risk, not ‘pool’ it.

That is something Rats don’t get.


38 posted on 01/05/2014 2:18:53 PM PST by 4Liberty (Mr President 'If you Like your college transcripts...can we see them?')
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To: loveliberty2
the economic dimension of liberty

That is, by far, one of the finest posts I've ever read on Free Republic. Please consider posting it as a vanity.

39 posted on 01/05/2014 3:24:38 PM PST by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: SC_Pete

Neither was I ;^)


40 posted on 01/05/2014 3:30:50 PM PST by Go_Raiders (Freedom doesn't give you the right to take from others, no matter how innocent your program sounds.)
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