Robert Shiller: I’m still investing in the stock market ("despite bubble like conditions")

CNBC ^

[Red in Blue PA]

Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC at the World Economic Forum that he is still investing in the stock market despite warning of bubble-like conditions.

Shiller said that his own long-term valuation metric for stock markets, which measures price-to-earnings based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years, was currently high at 25. But it was still well below the record high of 46 reached in 2000.

[Red in Blue PA]

Guns and ammo stocks are still made here, but Ruger is up from 5 in 2009 to 77 right now, so it is not the ideal time to buy that.

[jiggyboy]

Be real. Nothing will happen before the election to make Obama and the Dems look bad.

Do you remember how the stock market did way back in the summer of 2008?

[central_va]

The DOW is political. Has nothing to do with business or the economy. QE money goes to the bank which in turn pumps it into the stock market. Not real hard to figure out.

[Red in Blue PA]

Short term, political things like QE may influence the market.

But over the long-term, the market is never fooled.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

The problem is, buying imports now starts to impact our Strategic place in the globe.

We have sent so many manufacturing plants to China, that China is now the largest exporter on the entire planet, and China runs something like a 300 trillion surplus with us now.

And growing. Constant. Every single year. China sells America something like 400 trillion in goods. America sells China something like 100 trillion.

Constantly.

America has completely lost sight of what it means to be in a leadership role.

We need to get back, what we have sent abroad.

Buy American.

[petercooper]

Yes it declined about 10%. September comes along, McCain takes the lead against Obama- market tanks. Very coincidental.

[shove_it]

Do you remember how the stock market did way back in the summer of 2008?

The market was headed south until the bottom in March of 2009. It has been on a bull run to a record top ever since, in spite of the Obamanation. It has surpassed prior tops in 2000 and 2007. Check the SPY for the past 13+ years. It's looking REAL TOPPY again to me.

[Chgogal]

“But over the long-term, the market is never fooled.”

They are called corrections.

[petercooper]

Does look toppy, just don’t think we’re there yet. But looking for good bear funds/ETF’s, anyone?

[jiggyboy]

Oh I’m checking SPY literally about every minute these days. I started shorting last week, and added some more at yesterday’s open.

[Flick Lives]

This is a variation on the old “it’s different this time”.

It’s never different ever.

[Cold Heart]

Timely subject. This morning on Varney, a guy (Harry Dent) predicted the market would go up to 17500 this May and then spiral down to 5000 by 2016.

Both Varney & Charles agreed that the guy’s research was good.

The caveat he mentioned was the affect of all the government spending (I guess as to timing).

Guy reccomended cash positions and COG, which I haven’t researched yet. (I usually hit FR first:)

[Cold Heart]

Whoops, COG was Charles pick for the day.

UUP was a dollar following stock that was reccomended by Dent

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

First, see “Quantitative Easing”. It is the only thing supporting the market at this bubbly level.

Second, the millions of small investors do not set the tone for the market. The sheep are there to be sheared, not to drive the market. The market is driven by the big corporate investors.

[rstrahan]

Money is flowing out of bond funds due to rising rates, diminishing rates of return. Tat money is going into equity funds, pushing stocks up at the expense of bond funds.

[petercooper]

I used to read Harry Dent years back.

Now I follow Clif Droke. Ever hear of him?

http://www.safehaven.com/author/25/clif-droke

I’ve been reading about the Kress Cycles (Samuel J. Kress) and how 2014 is supposed to see the bottoming of the 120 yr cycle. Interesting stuff.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32228/a-melt-up-then-a-melt-down-in-2014

[Red in Blue PA]

I don’t like the idea of shorting as theoretically your losses are limitless while your gains are finite.

[Red in Blue PA]

And we are well overdue for one. The longer we go without one, the bigger it will be when it does finally arrive.

[Cold Heart]

I follow Varney & Charles Payne, they bring the guests with ideas one way or another.

[Chgogal]

I dvr’d Varney today (haven't done that in a while). There was this guy on (Dent was his name). He feels strongly about a huge correction to take place about 2016. He's basing his predictions on demographics.

I think there will be a big correction come the later half of 2015 because of ObamaCare. Public companies have a fiduciary responsibility to minimize costs. Dumping people on the ObamaCare Exchange and paying a $2,000 penalty/employee is cheaper than keeping them on the companies’ health care insurance rolls. From what I can tell ObamaCare ain't cheap. Considering that about 70% of the US economy is supported by consumer spending, we are in for a pretty nasty dip. And don't forget ObamaCare's definition of full time! That's going hurt as well.