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The GOP Enveloped By Campaign Calendar Sanity
Townhall.com ^ | January 26, 2014 | Hugh Hewitt

Posted on 01/26/2014 5:28:08 AM PST by Kaslin

This week past, the Republican National Committee, ably led by its chairman, Wisconsin's Reince Priebus, put into effect reforms of the presidential nominating process that greatly simplify and shorten the primary season and, when combined with the two others reforms that are coming --an early convention in June or early July, and a coherent, purpose-driven debate system and schedule--will greatly enhance the prospects for a November win by the eventual GOP nominee.

The possible GOP field* is large, and it needs information now to plan campaigns then. Geraghty the Indisensable has more commentary, and Zeke Miller has additional details, but the new calendar is likely this:

The Iowa caucuses on Monday, February 1, 2016;

The New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, February 9, 2016;

The South Carolina primary on Tuesday, February 16, 2016;

and the Nevada caucuses on Tuesday, February 23.

Expect a new "Super Tuesday" on Tuesday March 1, as would-be early state players rush to attract all the money and attention left after South Carolina, but note the two week gap between South Carolina's voting and the expected new Super Tuesday. Suddenly the Palmetto State has a a lot of leverage as the winner of its 2016 brawl will have a fortnight of momentum on which to build headed into the day which is expected to be crowded with early primaries, all required by the RNC to divide their delegates proportionally.

Big states that want "winner-take-all"drama and "knock-out" potential (and dollars) should angle for Tuesday, March 15, which is the earliest such a contest can be held, and if Ohio wants clout (and maybe a leg up in the hunt of the convention) its GOP dominated legislature should move the primary to that day. I doubt Governor Kasich would object.

Whatever shakes out, the madness is out of the system, so all hail Reince. If he can pull an eight-to-ten debate schedule out of his hat --say, one the week after New Hampshire, and one the week after South Carolina, and the other six spaced from September of 2015 through January 2016 --with blackout days from Friday December 18 through the end of the year-- he may be carried around the eventual convention site of the convention hall by journalists who spent Christmas 2011 in Iowa and New Hampshire. (Cities wishing to bid for the early GOP 2016 convention must do so by the end of next month with a site selection recommendation coming from this group and a decision in August of this year.) With a rational calendar, the allure of early debates just isn't going to be there for most would-be presidents, but I don't think I'll have much trouble booking the field* when their media teams figure out that 94.5 Conservative Talk covers upstate South Carolina in a blaze of 100,000 wonder, while other affiliates like WJXY-FM 93.9/93.7 in Myrtle Beach cover the coast.

South Carolina is the real winner in all of this, but there is no big loser, which is why the Priebus-led diplomacy pays off big. It is a level playing field. It is a rational one as well, and the candidates who aspire to lead the party and eventually the nation have to nod in agreement that this makes sense.

Now if the selection committee would just hold on to the common sense theme and pick Cleveland with its new convention hall, excellent mass transit from outlying areas, and the expected trifecta of the 2o15 World Series, 2016 Super Bowl, and 2016 NBA Finals appearances of its three major professional franchises providing a tailwind to the convention that summer. (Columbus will counter, of course, that Urban nation will have triumphed in early 2016, and that is most likely right, but it is still 1 versus 3 in the momentum-generating events. And Columbus does not have a beautiful lake or the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.)

A very good week for the GOP indeed. If there had been such a meeting in January 2010, President Romney might well be clamping down sanctions harder on Iran and markets steadier under a budget accord negotiated by Vice President Ryan.

*The GOP Field (potential candidates who have declared, hinted, or been tipped as candidates, or for whom there is not insignificant acclaim from fervent supporters outside of their families and state): Amb. John Bolton, Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Ted Cruz, Gov. Mike Huckabee, Gov. Bobby Jindal, Gov. John Kasich, Rep. Peter King, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Mike Pence, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Sarah Palin, Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Paul Ryan, Gov. Rick Snyder, Sen. John Thune, Gov. Scott Walker.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 01/26/2014 5:28:08 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

if Amnesty troll and K street idiot Hugh is for it then its bad news for us.


2 posted on 01/26/2014 5:40:10 AM PST by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: Kaslin

CLOSED PRIMARIES!!!!!


3 posted on 01/26/2014 5:41:39 AM PST by Ann Archy (Abortion......the Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Kaslin

Personally, I find it ridiculous that the GOP panders to four states whose combined populations is only about 1/3 of a solid state like Texas.

I further find it destructive that one state is controlled by groups open to infiltration and influence by subsidies (e.g., crop and ethanol), another is famous for being contrarian, a third in a state that is overrun by Democrats, and the last having the idiocy to elect Lindsey Graham as a US Senator.

I can only conclude that the GOP is more intent on manipulating their choice for the candidate rather than letting a significant portion of the electorate make the choice.


4 posted on 01/26/2014 5:43:44 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: Kaslin

I can guarantee one thing, if Ryan, Christie, King or Bush is on the ticket, I will be voting independent or leaving that line on my ballot blank.


5 posted on 01/26/2014 5:52:38 AM PST by Tupelo (I am feeling more like Philip Nolan every day)
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To: Kaslin

so is this set up to help the wonderful Willard and Willard’s good buddies..Christie, Rubio, Huckabee ???

Conservatives and TEA Party need not apply...


6 posted on 01/26/2014 6:00:39 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: Gaffer

I can only conclude that the GOP is more intent on manipulating their choice for the candidate rather than letting a significant portion of the electorate make the choice.


This is the ONLY reason for all of this.

Look to the rules changes of the last convention. The ‘leading’ candidate will get to pick the delegates from ech state regardless of that stat’e convention or caucus.

They simply do not want anything to interfere with the kabuki theater that is the selection process.

BTW, does anybody Boener’s mention of Jeb Bush on Jay Leno’s show was spontainious?


7 posted on 01/26/2014 6:00:55 AM PST by maine yankee (I got my Governor at 'Marden's')
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To: Kaslin

Have they closed all Primaries yet?


8 posted on 01/26/2014 6:02:48 AM PST by Red_Devil 232 ((VietVet - USMC All Ready On The Right? All Ready On The Left? All Ready On The Firing Line!))
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To: Gaffer

We need to have every primary election on the same day. This ‘momentum” thing has lead to very weak overall candidates. All they have to do is to get Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina voters to go for them, the they can coast to the nomination.


9 posted on 01/26/2014 6:04:54 AM PST by wolfpat (Not to know what has been transacted in former times is to be always a child. -- Cicero)
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To: maine yankee

The ‘leading’ candidate will get to pick the delegates from ech state regardless of that stat’e convention or caucus.
___________________________________________

Willard did that in 2012 because he was afraid of Governor Sarah Palin..


10 posted on 01/26/2014 6:08:14 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: wolfpat

Couple that with Democrat and Media collusion to focus on propping up the weakest appeaser, and you have a loser like McCain, Romney et al. Disgusting.


11 posted on 01/26/2014 6:08:35 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: Gaffer

The thinking is that at the national level a candidate must appeal to 51% of voters. That’s a broad spectrum. This is, overall, a good move. We’ve been hobbled by too many candidates. Take a look at the last election when conservatives lurched from one potential to another and fought each other.

The POTUS simply needs to be a Republican, even a GOPe. The President just needs to be center-right which every candidate in the last cycle was, including a RINO like Huntsman.

Where we really have an opportunity to elect conservatives is in the House and Senate. We need those two to be the most conservative possible. That’s where the real action is. A center-right POTUS will go along with a conservative Congress because he has to.

We need to concentrate on legislatures at the federal and state level. We need to control the election maps in every state we can. The road to victory is holding as many legislatures and center-right executives for a generation or two, just like liberals did over the last half century. We didn’t just get here in a single fell swoop.

Furthermore, we’re winning on abortion and gun control. The Constitution and liberty are winning propositions. Let’s not fret the details. The GOPe isn’t going to go quietly and they’re needed in the grand scheme of things.


12 posted on 01/26/2014 6:10:30 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
The POTUS simply needs to be a Republican, even a GOPe.

No offense, but I stopped reading right there. I simply won't fall for that one more doggone bit. I've held my last nose.

13 posted on 01/26/2014 6:13:05 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: wolfpat

All they have to do is to get Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina voters to go for them, the they can coast to the nomination.
_________________________________________

set up right there..

sweet for Willard...

he owns a house in New Hampshire where he can hang out for weeks schmoozing with the locals since he doesn’t work...

and Nevada is all wrapped up for him too..

there are lots of people of his own religion who voted lock step in Nevada..lots of organization going on early..

Iowa he spent a lot of time in last time..He can bus in his followers to the caucuses as he did before..

South Carolina went for McCain in 2008 and Newt in 2012..

he may not do well in that Conservative state in 2016 either...

people in SC have their eyes wide open..

a Palin or a Cruz could win there but not a Romney..

Aiken would remember how the Romney boys treated them in 2008 also..


14 posted on 01/26/2014 6:17:54 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: Gaffer

Don’t be foolish. Even a McCain, Romney or a Dole would be much better than any Democrat, but you need a conservative House and the most conservative Senate you can get. If conservatives stay home we’ll end up worse off. It’s a continuum and we need to wean people off government.

You do realize that we’re up against every recipient of government largesse and they represent a formidable force. We’re never going to get the perfect candidate. There isn’t a Reagan on the horizon. The real game is legislative. That’s where we will win the fight and we’ll do it over time.


15 posted on 01/26/2014 6:18:47 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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16 posted on 01/26/2014 6:18:55 AM PST by RedMDer (Happy with this, America? Make your voices heard. 2014 is just around the corner. ~ Sarah Palin)
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To: 1010RD

Been through all your arguments before. I’m simply not interested in it anymore when the ‘winners’ stab you in the back any chance they get. I’m gonna do my networking and influence here at home at the local level, starting by ousting my GOP congressman, and work to not get a Chambliss Clone in the Senate, and then oust Isakson in 2016.


17 posted on 01/26/2014 6:21:42 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: Red_Devil 232; All
The article is about the presidential election in 2016, not the midterm election and it is way to early to speculate who is or is not going to run in 2016

Here is the schedule for the 2014 Midterm Primary Elections.

2014 Primary Elections

18 posted on 01/26/2014 6:22:52 AM PST by Kaslin (He needed the ignorant to reelect him, and he got them. Now we all have to pay the consequenses)
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To: Kaslin

Has Ben Carson ruled himself out? With the list presented he’d be able to get a lot of votes as the one non-politician, Bolton aside, but a Washington insider.


19 posted on 01/26/2014 6:23:37 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: 1010RD

Even a McCain, Romney or a Dole
____________________________________

or how about the other RINOs that your boy Willard has sworn to support..Christie, Huckabbe, Rubio etc

“This is a time for Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Mike Pence, John Kasich- a long list- Marco Rubio. There are a lot of folks who should have the chance to be our nominee and I’m going to support the one who gets the prize,’ he said.” (Willard Mitt Romney, Today Show, January 24, 2014)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2545352/Im-sure-shes-beatable-Mitt-Romney-opens-Clintons-chances-2016-says-despite-terror-threats-absolutely-send-family-Sochi.html

(Please notice that Willard has NEVER included Sen Ted Cruz in his list)


20 posted on 01/26/2014 6:29:46 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: Gaffer

That’s perfect and the correct response. Don’t forget the statehouse elections either. We need to hold those for a generation. Right now we have to hold and expand our control over states. That’s where the next fight is.

http://www.statescape.com/resources/partysplits/partysplits.aspx


21 posted on 01/26/2014 6:32:06 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: gusopol3
Yes he has. As a matter of fact (I think it was Bret Baier) who was asking him on Friday evening if he was going to run and he said that he would leave the running to others, but that he would support the candidate 100 percent.

I found out in the 2008 it was a waste to make Fred Thompson run for president, because his heart wasn't in it. He was my first choice. I will not make the same mistake again.

22 posted on 01/26/2014 6:45:41 AM PST by Kaslin (He needed the ignorant to reelect him, and he got them. Now we all have to pay the consequenses)
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To: Kaslin
First off, the GOP should begin their primary season in Texas. Instead of having to answer questions like, "What will you do for the Cheeeel-dren", you'll get questions like, "What will you do to stop illegal alien invaders from crossing the border" or "what will you do to ensure the 2nd Amendment will never be repealed?"

Second, NO OPEN PRIMARIES. I don't want Democrats choosing our nominee.

Finally, NO DEBATES FROM MAINSTREAM NETWORKS. I'm tired of hearing questions about abortion, and want to hear more about how the candidate will restore America from the disaster it is now. I want Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Dennis Miller, Brit Hume, etc. moderating our debates....NO MORE FAT ANN CROWLEYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

23 posted on 01/26/2014 6:45:55 AM PST by MuttTheHoople (Nothing is more savage and brutal than justifiably angry Americans. Don’t believe me? Ask the Germa)
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To: Tennessee Nana

blah, blah, blah.


24 posted on 01/26/2014 6:47:16 AM PST by Kaslin (He needed the ignorant to reelect him, and he got them. Now we all have to pay the consequenses)
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To: ncalburt

Grow up!

Hugh is trying ensure the lame stream media isn’t dictating our Primary and Debate schedule.

Would YOU like to debate the subject or take swipes at the author?


25 posted on 01/26/2014 7:08:11 AM PST by G Larry
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To: Tennessee Nana

The ‘leading’ candidate will get to pick the delegates from ech state regardless of that stat’e convention or caucus.
___________________________________________

Willard did that in 2012 because he was afraid of Governor Sarah Palin..


He (they) did that because they were afraid of Ron Paul.


26 posted on 01/26/2014 7:12:54 AM PST by maine yankee (I got my Governor at 'Marden's')
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To: Tupelo

Another FReeper vote for Hillary and the destruction of America.

Because YOU are going to teach the GOP a lesson.

Gee Thanks.....


27 posted on 01/26/2014 7:13:27 AM PST by G Larry
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To: gusopol3

No, he’s actively campaigning.

Just not dynamic enough to get a GOP nomination.

I’m guessing he’ll run 3rd Party.

He really focuses on shedding labels and addressing solutions.

Great idea if we had time to transition. But these bastards on the left are trying to kill us (America).

He won’t gain enough national attention, as the MSM will ignore him.

He’s a Black Conservative....Why would the cover him?


28 posted on 01/26/2014 7:19:00 AM PST by G Larry
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To: G Larry

Gee, another GOP vote. Party unity trumps all.


29 posted on 01/26/2014 7:43:24 AM PST by Tupelo (I am feeling more like Philip Nolan every day)
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To: Tupelo

Here’s how the real world works.

You fight your butt off to nominate the most conservative candidate possible.

That means starting early and know who you’re backing.

In the end, if you don’t get the results you wanted, you don’t through a tantrum and give the advantage to the folks trying to destroy America.

Do you think the 3% who boycotted Romney are going to “teach the GOP a lesson” before the left destroys America?


30 posted on 01/26/2014 7:50:39 AM PST by G Larry
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To: Kaslin

Thanks


31 posted on 01/26/2014 9:27:59 AM PST by gusopol3
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To: Gaffer
"South Carolina is the real winner in all of this, but there is no big loser, "

Ok, conservatives, what more do you want ? SOUTH CAROLINA IS THE BIG WINNER.

If you conservatives can't get your man elected with SOUTH CAROLINA BEING THE BIG WINNER, you guys don't deserve to win. Frankly, if it were me, I would have the same plan as Priebus except the March 1 super Tuesday would have only 4 states. They would be Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Virginia.

The bottom line is we need to win all those states or we don't win.

You take the Romney states and add those 4 to it and you get victory and those 4 states are the easiest to flip to our side.

32 posted on 01/26/2014 9:39:36 AM PST by staytrue
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To: Tennessee Nana

“South Carolina is the real winner in all of this, but there is no big loser, “

“Conservatives and TEA Party need not apply”

Did you read the article ?

“South Carolina is the real winner in all of this, but there is no big loser, “

“SOUTH CAROLINA IS THE BIG WINNER”

If you tea party/conservatives don’t like South Carolina being very important, then YOU ARE IDIOTS.


33 posted on 01/26/2014 9:42:28 AM PST by staytrue
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To: Tennessee Nana

“Willard did that in 2012 because he was afraid of Governor Sarah Palin..”

Palin was too much of chicken to run in 2012. Who the heck is afraid of someone afraid to run.


34 posted on 01/26/2014 9:43:36 AM PST by staytrue
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To: staytrue

Meanwhile Hugh Hewitt still gets a tingle over your boy Willard...


35 posted on 01/26/2014 9:44:46 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: Tennessee Nana

“Aiken would remember how the Romney boys treated them in 2008 also”

Aiken lost in 2012 and he needed no help from Romney in losing. He achieved that all by himself and he lost a seat that should have been a sure thing because McCaskill is a crook.


36 posted on 01/26/2014 9:46:26 AM PST by staytrue
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To: MuttTheHoople

“First off, the GOP should begin their primary season in Texas.”

Wrong. The gop can not win with Texas alone.

The first states should be Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

We lose any one of those and we have almost certainly lost in 2016.


37 posted on 01/26/2014 9:48:38 AM PST by staytrue
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To: staytrue

I think you are confusing Congressman Todd Akin with the city of Aiken, South Carolina...


38 posted on 01/26/2014 9:56:33 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: staytrue

However if it hadn’t been for the big ugly mouth of your boy Willard, Todd Akin would have had a chance to win..


39 posted on 01/26/2014 10:00:24 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: Kaslin

from my home page

___________________________________________________________________

Here’s how I think primaries should be organized:

My suggestion is basically to hold the first primary in the state that has the highest percentage of GOP votes in the last election, the 2nd primary in the 2nd highest, and so on. 2 primaries a week for 25 weeks, with the last primaries being the suckup-to-the-democrats. And the democrats could easily have their primary schedule the same way, if they wanted.

This way, if a state is 60% republican, there is still incentive for them to get out the vote for 61% republican so they can bump up their state in the primary schedule.

Also: Rotate all the states (even the big ones) through an early schedule so that everyone gets access at some point to the front line.

OR

Let each state bid when they want their primary to take place. The earlier the primary, the fewer the delegates they control according to some logarithmic or steep curve formula.

18 posted on Thursday, January 31, 2008 9:55:08 AM by Kevmo (We need to get rid of the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party. ~Duncan Hunter) http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1962610/posts?page=18#18

Second thing is the order of the primaries should be determined by the percentage of republicans in the last vote. The higher the %pubbie, the sooner the state appears on the primary schedule, with a mix of big & little states and our staunchest republican states get to go FIRST. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1965735/posts?page=862#862

24 posted on Friday, September 04, 2009 8:52:29 PM by Kevmo (So America gets what America deserves - the destruction of its Constitution. ~Leo Donofrio, 6/1/09)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies | Report Abuse] http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2332420/posts?page=24#24

___________________________________________________________________


40 posted on 01/26/2014 10:31:00 AM PST by Kevmo ("A person's a person, no matter how small" ~Horton Hears a Who)
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To: Kaslin

I’m still pissed off at Thompson over that.


41 posted on 01/26/2014 10:49:17 AM PST by 2111USMC (Aim Small Miss Small)
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To: Tennessee Nana

As long as the POTUS is center-right, it doesn’t really matter. What matters is a conservative House and the most conservative Senate you can get. That’s what matters at the national level. You’ll be hard pressed to find a single RINO who’s as bad as Obama, Hillary or any Dem nominee over the last half dozen POTUS elections.


42 posted on 01/26/2014 2:48:33 PM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

As long as the POTUS is center-right, it doesn’t really matter.
__________________________________________

Kid a center-right president can veto Conservative legislature just as easy as a liberal one can...

and even Bill Clinton was not as liberal as your boy Willard...


43 posted on 01/26/2014 2:53:35 PM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: 1010RD
The trouble is that the theory of one-third conservative, on-third “liberal,” and one-third “moderate” doesn’t pan out. Romney would have won if he had continued to run as firm a campaign as he did in the first two debates - but he went squishy at the end and lost as a result. Moving “to the center” was not and is not a winning strategy.

The difference between “conservative" and “liberal” is the difference between Theodore Roosevelt’s “man who is actually in the arena,” on the one hand, and “the critic” on the other. Journalists are “the critic,” and so is everyone to whom journalists award positive labels such as “progressive,” “liberal,” “moderate,” or “centrist.”

There is no viable “middle ground” between “the man in the arena” and “the critic.” Try to occupy that “middle ground” and you are in quicksand. Journalism will always award any credit for “moderation” to the candidate who goes along to get along with “the critic” - that is, with themselves. Consequently no positive label is available to any competitor to the left-most candidate. He will be called “right wing,” "extreme right,” or “ultra-conservative” - never any positive label. Even “conservative” is a negative label in a country in which any PR man lusts after the ability to call his product “NEW!”


44 posted on 01/26/2014 3:22:38 PM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: Tennessee Nana

I know you don’t like Mormons, but Romney isn’t my “boy”. Any POTUS can veto legislature, but a center-right one is less likely. It is naïve to believe that we are going to get some superman to come in and save America. It’s going to happen because conservatives have made the right moves. Doing that is, quite literally, politics. It is going to involve compromise - the very same method that got us our Constitution.

If our goal is restoring a Constitutional Republic, we’re going to have to be smart about it or wise as serpents and gentle as lambs. It will take time, but the opportunity is there. There isn’t another way, unless you want blood.


45 posted on 01/26/2014 3:56:13 PM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion

I cannot explain or defend Romney’s loss. That’s on him. I was shocked he didn’t highlight Cook County, IL. It’s a total corrupt mess.

That said, it has been very, very hard to get rid of a sitting POTUS. When was the last one to lose a reelection bid? Do you remember?


46 posted on 01/26/2014 4:02:04 PM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD
That said, it has been very, very hard to get rid of a sitting POTUS. When was the last one to lose a reelection bid? Do you remember?
GHWB, 1992.
. . . and note that Clinton was a governor, not a senator.

Prior to that, it was Carter, 1980 - and Reagan was a governor. Before that, it was Hoover, 1932 - and FDR was a governor.

Note also that sitting VPs don’t win election to POTUS unless the sitting POTUS is a candidate for having his portrait on a coin or a denomination of currency - i.e., Washington, Jackson, and Reagan.


47 posted on 01/26/2014 5:04:27 PM PST by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: staytrue
Wrong. The gop can not win with Texas alone. The first states should be Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. We lose any one of those and we have almost certainly lost in 2016.

I think you're right - the primary schedule should be revamped every four years based on the marginal states from the previous election.

48 posted on 01/27/2014 1:05:59 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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