Posted on 02/01/2014 11:45:09 AM PST by Clintonfatigued
A Libertarian candidate won’t be needed to keep Landrieu under 50% in the November general (even as she tries to run away from Obama), but he just might help keep Cassidy under 50% and give Landrieu a second bite at the apple in a December runoff (where God knows what will happen). We should try to kill off Landrieu in November—she’s had too many lives as it is. And while I agree that a December runoff should have a lower turnout and, on paper, should help the GOP, that didn’t occur in 2002, when not only did Landrieu survive but she swept in then-Democrat Rodney Alexander in a heavily Republican congressional district.
Don’t get too enthused about this.
Mary won the senate race because she won Orleans parrish.
That is the only parrish she won. Woody Jenkins won the other 53 and lost the race.
Somewhat related to the Cassidy-Landrieu Senate race: black conservative Republican Dr. Charles “Trey” Thomas has entered the LA-06 race to replace Cassidy. See http://thehayride.com/2014/01/another-first-time-candidate-enters-the-6th-district-race/ and http://www.charlestreythomas.com/. Dr. Thomas is a 34-year-old former LSU football player, educator, businessman and Executive Director of Family Values Resource Institute.
According to the article from The Hayride from the first paragraph of this post, the frontrunner seems to be 28-year-old technology entrepreneur Paul Dietzel, whose grandfather was the LSU football coach, so Dr. Thomas is neither the youngest Republican candidate nor the one with the strongest link to LSU football. I know very little about these two candidates (or the others who also have announced), but I am a bit concerned that Dietzel appears to have been adopted by Paulistinians from Texas—of course, the fact that Paulbots like a candidate doesn’t make such candidate a Paultard, but when someone without a political record bursts into the scene and is supported by the L. Ron Paul cult it certainly should be scrutinized to ensure that the candidate himself isn’t a cult member.
Given the large number of candidates with no obvious superstar, I think it’s almost certain that no one will get 50%+1 in the November general and thus the top two vote-getters will proceed to a December run-off. If one Republican and one Democrat make the run-off, the Republican would be guaranteed victory in what now is the second most Republican district in the state (black parts of Baton Rouge were appended to the New Orleans-based LA-02 in 2012 redistricting). But perhaps two Republicans will make the run-off, in which case it will be very interesting how it turns out. A Dietzel-Thomas run-off would get national attention, although if Landrieu manages to keep Cassidy under 50% in the first round and forces a Senate run-off it will overshadow the House race.
BTW, there is a third possible scenario; given that exactly two Democrats have filed to run in the LA-06, it is mathematically possible for the two to get around 15% each while the six Republicans running split the remaining 70% by each getting 14%, thus resulting in the two Democrats going to the run-off. This would be the mirror image of what the GOP managed to do in CA-31 in 2012, where two Republicans split 40% and finished one-two, thus making the run-off. in the jungle primary. But I think that it is highly unlikely that such scenario could be replicated in LA-06, since two largely unknown Democrats would be lucky to get a combined 30% in the first round, and it would be extremely unlikely for the 70% Republican vote to be split exactly equally among five candidates. Of course, the filing deadline isn’t until August 22, and if several additional Republicans jump in (Tony Perkins may be considering a run, and other names have been mentioned), who the heck knows what will happen?
“Mary won the senate race because she won Orleans parrish.
That is the only parrish she won. Woody Jenkins won the other 53 and lost the race.”
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1996&fips=22&f=1&off=3&elect=0&class=2
Democrat cheating in New Orleans accounted for Landrieu’s 5,800 margin of victory (and then some), but is no true that Landrieu or anyone else could win statewide merely by getting a big margin in New Orleans.
Oh, and there are 64, not 53, parishes in LA.
Yeah
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=169
Anyway since I’ve seen some Freepers say “Cassidy sucks” and “Maness is the conservative choice” I’d like to remind them of the jungle primary system.
Manses is waaaaaaaaaaaaay behind in this race. He is not gonna not place first or second. So the best outcome for us is for Cassidy to win in November and avoid a lower turnout runoff where hijinks would be conceivable.
And since then, the Landrieus have developed a stron Democrat machine in Shreveport as well.
Because all the families and Republicans moved to Bossier
My map was better because it showed Landrieu parishes in Communist red. : )
Definitely better in that way.
OTOH “Our campaigns” lets you scroll over the counties/parishes and see the margins. You have to pay Leip to do that for races before the year 2000. ;d
Well, I pay Leip for that benefit (one of only two websites to which I pay money to access premium service, the other being baseball-reference.com), so it’s a no-brainer for me to go there.
“Our campaigns” used to let you look up county and go back and see how it voted in every race they have date on sometimes going back VERY far. But I was told it was taking up too much space on the website so they deleted those county containers.
Both Leip’s Forums and Our Campaigns sadly seem to have a mostly libs post comments (Leip’s user endorsements maps skew heavily rat).
I haven’t bothered with posting comments on OurCampaigns in a long time. When I first registered, they thought I was some retread troll and savagely attacked me. Only when one of the DUmmies checked my IP address did they confirm I wasn’t. I have to admit OC is a very difficult and slow site to navigate. I’d start my own site if I could, with the proper color scheme.
Yeah I remember you telling me that, I understand this troll had been bothering them a lot but they were needlessly rude jagholes to you.
It can be slow and is hard to navigate yes. It used to be very slow for me most of the time. I think it got better when they deleted some of that data but I miss those county containers. You could click on say Queens County NY and see how they voted in every race going way back. The info is still there but you’d have to find every race individually.
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