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Jet stream shift could prompt harsher winters: scientists
AFP (Via Yahoo! News) ^ | 2/16/2014 | Jean-Louis Santini

Posted on 02/16/2014 10:15:55 AM PST by Redcloak

Chicago (AFP) - A warmer Arctic could permanently affect the pattern of the high-altitude polar jet stream, resulting in longer and colder winters over North America and northern Europe, US scientists say.

The jet stream, a ribbon of high altitude, high-speed wind in northern latitudes that blows from west to east, is formed when the cold Arctic air clashes with warmer air from further south.

The greater the difference in temperature, the faster the jet stream moves.

According to Jennifer Francis, a climate expert at Rutgers University, the Arctic air has warmed in recent years as a result of melting polar ice caps, meaning there is now less of a difference in temperatures when it hits air from lower latitudes.

"The jet stream is a very fast moving river of air over our head," she said Saturday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"But over the past two decades the jet stream has weakened. This is something we can measure," she said.

As a result, instead of circling the earth in the far north, the jet stream has begun to meander, like a river heading off course.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: algore; climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
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Normally, I'd be tempted to mock a story like this. Let's be honest, most "climatologists" are either crazy or looking for their next grant. And since the grant money comes mostly from crazies... Well, you get the picture. But this story looks like one of those that's the reason I threw those qualifiers in. This group might be onto something.

Their research suggests that "global warming" is leading to cooling in the Northern hemisphere. Most of the dire, Algoresque predictions of the Earth turning into a fireball have come from people using Northern hemisphere (NH) data. They've also been squirming looking for ways to explain away climate events like the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). (How could temperatures have been warmer when there were no eeeeevil SUVs driving around?!)

Another climate phenomenon that the Algorecrazies try to ignore is the Little Ice Age (LIA). The LIA poses a problem for them since it gives late 19th and 20th century warming a colder, and thus less noteworthy, starting point. A little warming doesn't count for much if it's merely correcting an earlier cold snap. These researchers have found a mechanism to connect the MWP and the LIA in the Northern hemisphere: The Jet Stream. This would also fit the change from the Roman Warm Period and the colder Dark Ages.

Though the article doesn't say so, I wonder if the researchers haven't noticed the same thing. Later in the article, Dr. Francis is quoted as saying that it's too early to blame the warming at the pole, and thus cooling over the NH. on humans. Has she and her team noticed this cyclical behavior?

To quote Battlestar Galactica: "This has all happened before and will happen again."

1 posted on 02/16/2014 10:15:55 AM PST by Redcloak
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To: Redcloak

Two words “interglacial period”.


2 posted on 02/16/2014 10:18:57 AM PST by Crim (Palin / West '16)
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To: Redcloak

You know, Earth is mostly a molten planet, with a very, very thin crust upon which we float. How come no one ever discusses the heat radiation from within? It’s got to be variable.


3 posted on 02/16/2014 10:20:04 AM PST by Zuben Elgenubi (NOPe to GOPe)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi

“...could...”

Then, too, could not.


4 posted on 02/16/2014 10:20:45 AM PST by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi

It doesn’t matter that the core of the planet is molten, what matters is that cow farts are killing us!

/greenie rant


5 posted on 02/16/2014 10:23:00 AM PST by wastedyears (The Ender's Game movie was a stupendous, colossal, galactic failure to me.)
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To: Redcloak

The jet stream has been wandering for as long as I can remember.

We haven’t gotten a freeze in Florida this year, but in past years the jet stream got far enough south to kill off the orange crops, or even kill some of the trees.

I’m afraid this sounds to me like more of this “warmer makes it colder” stuff that they’ve been coming out with for some time.

And as an academic climatologist, she has to stick with the story if she wants a government research grant.


6 posted on 02/16/2014 10:23:21 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Redcloak

or, colder winters are why the jet stream shifted.

The jet stream is the toe of the trough and dipped because the trough was more intense


7 posted on 02/16/2014 10:25:18 AM PST by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: Redcloak

Either you mock it, or I mock you.


8 posted on 02/16/2014 10:25:22 AM PST by Born to Conserve
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To: Redcloak

Yeah! Yeah!
We used to say ‘If my aunt had gonads she would be my uncle’, although with todays ‘crazies’ once they go under the knife not sure what kind of freak show is started.

Then again ‘Your Mother wore Combat Boots’ used to be an insult but today she could be quite heroic (in a sense) especially if daddy didn’t bother to join.


9 posted on 02/16/2014 10:27:54 AM PST by xrmusn (6/98 --When you have them by the short hairs, the minds and hearts soon follow.)
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To: Redcloak

Curious — Does the Southern Hemisphere have some sort of similar jet stream?


10 posted on 02/16/2014 10:28:21 AM PST by bunster
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To: Zuben Elgenubi

If they can’t measure it, it doesn’t exist.


11 posted on 02/16/2014 10:29:03 AM PST by BuckeyeTexan (There are those that break and bend. I'm the other kind. ~Steve Earle)
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To: Redcloak

With lake Michigan at about 87% frozen over and a total freeze over expected very soon, along with the record snow falls in the state, we’re going to be in for a very cold spring......


12 posted on 02/16/2014 10:30:01 AM PST by Hot Tabasco (Was Occam's razor made by Gillette?)
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To: Cicero

I wonder if the question that brought about her it’s-too-early-to-blame-SUVs response wasn’t something along the lines of “What laws should Obama pass to stop this?”. I would be shocked if this journalist didn’t go into the interview with the expectation that she’d hear the “confirmed wisdom” of St. Algore of Warmth. How many times do you suppose she re-asked the question not believing what she heard?

On the other hand, perhaps Dr. Francis is looking to retire.


13 posted on 02/16/2014 10:34:30 AM PST by Redcloak (Was that the primary buffer panel?)
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To: Redcloak
If the Jet Stream is weakening and this leads to more severe winters across the Northern Hemisphere, then that will lead to more snow cover.

More snow cover means more heat from the sun being radiated back to space.

More heat radiating back to space means more cooling.

Maybe the scientists have discovered one more balancing mechanism that keeps the earth's climate in a relatively stable, and liveable state.

14 posted on 02/16/2014 10:39:32 AM PST by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: Redcloak

Melting polar ice caps??? Isn’t this year’s ice extent greater than last year’s? Look at the satellite photos, professor - the North Pole is not ice-free in spite of Al Gore’s prediction five years ago that it would be by now. Who ya gonna believe, Al Gore’s prediction or your lyin’ eyes?


15 posted on 02/16/2014 10:39:55 AM PST by Bob
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To: Redcloak

If true, this will become the new ‘climate change’ mantra of the left that will somehow be the fault of capitalists, Christians, conservatives or Republicans. Intelligent discourse about purely scientific issues are a thing of the past-everything is now politicized.


16 posted on 02/16/2014 10:40:46 AM PST by Spok ("What're you going to believe-me or your own eyes?" -Marx (Groucho))
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To: Redcloak; All


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17 posted on 02/16/2014 10:43:03 AM PST by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Redcloak

Good gawd o mighty....I knew it was only a matter of time until they blamed current jet stream patterns on their global warming...Or it is now called climate change? Climate culture? Climate sensitivity? Climate coming out of the closet?


18 posted on 02/16/2014 10:43:57 AM PST by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: who_would_fardels_bear

The warming at the pole that they’re talking about is water driven and has little to do with the Earth’s albedo. The Gulf Stream and its Pacific cousin, the Kuroshio current, take warm water into the Arctic. Their theory is that melting ice in the Arctic Sea exposes this warm water to the air. (Normally, the ice acts as an insulator.) This then causes more rising air that, in turn, meets upper level air that is descending. (That air was warmed at the equator.) This all works to disrupt the flow of the jet stream. The bottom line is that it’s not being caused by some soccermom’s SUV.


19 posted on 02/16/2014 10:49:01 AM PST by Redcloak (Was that the primary buffer panel?)
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To: Redcloak

IN The words of Jean Clod sKerry..

Breeng EET onnnnn!!!


20 posted on 02/16/2014 10:55:20 AM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi - Revolution is a'brewin!!!)
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To: Redcloak
Melting ice caps absorb latent heat, they don't release it.

So how could melting ice caps be the driving force in warmer air?

Methinks there is a cart pulling a horse somewhere in this scenario.

If the ice caps are melting, then perhaps something else is to blame, but AFAIK, the ice caps were there, happy and healthy this year (perhaps submarine volcanic activity in the Arctic Ocean slacked off).

We are entering a new dark age where what once was reasoned science has become dogma and superstition to the point that reasoning is being dumped on its head.

21 posted on 02/16/2014 11:01:58 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Redcloak
"But over the past two decades the jet stream has weakened. This is something we can measure," she said.

1a) Two decades is meaningless, 1b) The jet stream has weakened only because it strengthened in the 90's: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.timeseries.gif 2) the warming in the Arctic in winter is the result of the weaker (meandering) jet stream, not the cause 3) Francis is a stupid propagandist.

22 posted on 02/16/2014 11:04:16 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: bunster

Yes the southern hemisphere has a polar jet, but it is a lot less wavy due to having no irregular land masses like the northern.


23 posted on 02/16/2014 11:06:10 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: dragnet2

I guess the question is one of whether enough energy has been removed from the normal air currents on the planet (via windfarms converting it to mechanical, then electrical energy) to interfere with the normal operation of the jet stream. If so, the greenies could bring on the next ice age...


24 posted on 02/16/2014 11:06:44 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: who_would_fardels_bear
More snow cover means more heat from the sun being radiated back to space

That is reflected, not radiated, but your point is valid. Also to the same point a warmer Arctic due to the wavy jet causes more heat to be radiated in winter which also results in global cooling.

25 posted on 02/16/2014 11:08:21 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: Bob
Isn’t this year’s ice extent greater than last year’s?

Yes, but one year doesn't change the long term downtrend of Arctic ice. It hardly matters since we are talking about ice cover in summer, not in winter when the jet waviness matters.

26 posted on 02/16/2014 11:10:35 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi
How come no one ever discusses the heat radiation from within?

Because it is orders of magnitude less than the heat from the sun

It’s got to be variable.

Not as variable as the sun.

27 posted on 02/16/2014 11:11:34 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: wastedyears
It doesn’t matter that the core of the planet is molten

It more than core, wy. On a comparable scale, the crust thickness would be the paint thickness covering a grapefruit. Everything below that paint is molten.

28 posted on 02/16/2014 11:12:40 AM PST by Zuben Elgenubi (NOPe to GOPe)
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To: Redcloak
These "scientists", and the "journalists" that parrot them deserve either your laughter, or your pity. They certainly don't deserve your attention.

The only source of weather on the earth is the sun. The sun simply doesn't shine on the poles in the winter. This means the poles get cold in the winter. The cold is like a beret' on your head. Sometimes it isn't placed directly on the top, so some parts get colder than normal, while other spots get warmer than normal. It's as simple as that.

The other thing to remember is that warm air (think equator) rises, and cold air sinks. This means warm air at the equator tends to move to the poles. The problem is that the equator, and the air around it, is moving from west to east at about 1000 miles per hour. The poles barely move at all. This makes for jet streams as the air moves to the poles. (Note how they move generally from west to east.)

Weather patterns can alter these things, somewhat, but nothing can alter these facts: The poles are cold in the winter, air flows from hot to cold, and the equator moves at about 1000 mph. Don't let a jaunty beret' convince you otherwise. Give nothing but mirth, or pity, to the warmists.

29 posted on 02/16/2014 11:14:07 AM PST by norwaypinesavage (Galileo: In science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of one individual)
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To: Smokin' Joe

I guess the question is one of whether enough energy has been removed from the normal air currents on the planet (via windfarms converting it to mechanical, then electrical energy) to interfere with the normal operation of the jet stream. If so, the greenies could bring on the next ice age...


For some reason this reminded me of the great debate that driving on the right side of the road causes more tornadoes because it creates a small whirlwind similar to a tornado when cars meet on the road. The phenomenon might be the seed for tornadoes. This safety issue caused a national movement for us to drive on the left side of the road.

Another of those, “sounds good until your think about it.”


30 posted on 02/16/2014 11:14:13 AM PST by PeterPrinciple
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To: Smokin' Joe
Melting ice caps absorb latent heat, they don't release it.

True, but they release it each year when the ice refreezes. Look at various years in this plot http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php and you will see generally more warmth than average in the fall and less in the spring. The spring cooling is the absorption of heat as you point out. The fall warmth is from the refreeze.

31 posted on 02/16/2014 11:14:28 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: palmer

I’ll have to get back with you after I check out the math.


32 posted on 02/16/2014 11:15:42 AM PST by Zuben Elgenubi (NOPe to GOPe)
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To: Redcloak

My problem with these kind of articles is that if we are to take the “scientists” as credible, then they should have predicted this sort of model 10 years ago. They just keep modifying the theory to fit the latest weather patterns.


33 posted on 02/16/2014 11:18:59 AM PST by BRL
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To: Smokin' Joe
whether enough energy has been removed from the normal air currents on the planet (via windfarms converting it to mechanical, then electrical energy) to interfere with the normal operation of the jet stream

Doubtful since wind energy production is 10^21 Joules which is 10 times less than a day of sunshine. Considering that a lot of wind results from that sunshine, I don't think there is any effect.

34 posted on 02/16/2014 11:21:45 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: palmer
Just started looking but immediately stumbled over this article and thought it worthy.

Scientific American, Nuclear Fission Confirmed as Source of More than Half of Earth’s Heat

Excerpt: "The new measurements suggest radioactive decay provides more than half of Earth’s total heat, estimated at roughly 44 terawatts based on temperatures found at the bottom of deep boreholes into the planet’s crust. The rest is leftover from Earth’s formation or other causes yet unknown, according to the scientists involved. Some of that heat may have been trapped in Earth’s molten iron core since the planet’s formation, while the nuclear decay happens primarily in the crust and mantle"

35 posted on 02/16/2014 11:22:58 AM PST by Zuben Elgenubi (NOPe to GOPe)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi

According to Al Gore, the interior of the planet is hot — millions of degrees hot!


36 posted on 02/16/2014 11:23:29 AM PST by USFRIENDINVICTORIA
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To: Zuben Elgenubi

44 TW for one day is 4x10^18 J. The sun hits us with 10^22 Joules each day (just looked it above).


37 posted on 02/16/2014 11:25:24 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi
Here's the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(energy)
38 posted on 02/16/2014 11:27:02 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: palmer

I always found it fascinating how the jet stream pulled arctic air south to make where I live, (MN) a living polar Hell. If you look at temp averages we’re colder than most of Scandinavia and seem more like Siberia, yet we’re a much lower latitude.


39 posted on 02/16/2014 11:27:31 AM PST by miliantnutcase
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To: palmer

If you call -40 “warmth”...


40 posted on 02/16/2014 11:29:08 AM PST by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: palmer

Well, no use defending the indefensible. Those numbers don’t even come close to substantiating my point. I concede to your superior knowledge, and thank you for uplifting my understanding towards your level.


41 posted on 02/16/2014 11:29:39 AM PST by Zuben Elgenubi (NOPe to GOPe)
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To: miliantnutcase

The primary cause is the Rockies. The rising air causes a mean ridge over the Rockies and a mean trough in the jet over central north america. That varies due to weather but is there on average.


42 posted on 02/16/2014 11:36:29 AM PST by palmer (don't feed the bears)
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To: Redcloak

I believe that these researchers should have to spend a month at the respective poles during their winter months before being allowed to pass their, ‘knowledge’, on to the rest of us.

What it boils down to is that they are no better than the snake oil salesmen of the past and should be treated accordingly


43 posted on 02/16/2014 11:44:13 AM PST by Delta Dawn (Fluent in two languages: English and cursive.)
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To: Redcloak
So let me see if i have this. The Northern Hemisphere is cooling. There's record antarctic sea ice, the decade from 2000-2010 was the warmest in the modern era, the decades from 2001-2011, 2002-2012, 2003-2013 were all cooler but we are experiencing record warming.

Do these "scientists" do double shifts as part time New York bridge salesmen ?

44 posted on 02/16/2014 11:51:34 AM PST by Timocrat (Ingnorantia non excusat)
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To: Zuben Elgenubi

RE: “You know, Earth is mostly a molten planet, with a very, very thin crust upon which we float. How come no one ever discusses the heat radiation from within?”

Although the interior of the Earth is incredibly hot, very little of that heat makes it to the surface.

Most of that energy is consumed by “continental drift,” in other words, the motion of the tectonic plates under the great land masses at Earth’s surface.

The sun radiates about 350 watts per square meter onto the surface of the Earth.

Energy that travels from the Earth’s core to the Earth’s surface is actually less than 1 watt.


45 posted on 02/16/2014 11:57:56 AM PST by zeestephen
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To: palmer

Thanks for the info. You’ve taught me a lot today.


46 posted on 02/16/2014 12:07:40 PM PST by miliantnutcase
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To: Redcloak; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; alrea; ...
I didn't know the Jet Stream once went in a near-perfect circle around the north pole. I always thought it dipped and moved around. I never saw anything to indicate otherwise.

Are you sure Dr. Francis isn't just talking out of her ass?

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47 posted on 02/16/2014 12:25:05 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Colorado: the Maryland of the Mountain West)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Like a study showing the benefits of a rising tide. Then opps, the tide goes out. TOTAL BS.


48 posted on 02/16/2014 12:34:02 PM PST by spawn44 (MOO)
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To: Redcloak
According to Jennifer Francis, a climate expert at Rutgers University, the Arctic air has warmed in recent years as a result of melting polar ice caps

Hmmm. Does this seem bass-ackwards to anyone else?

49 posted on 02/16/2014 12:35:09 PM PST by SuziQ
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To: Smokin' Joe
Melting ice caps absorb latent heat, they don't release it.

So how could melting ice caps be the driving force in warmer air?

See my response at #19. The ice is an insulator over (relatively) warm water.

50 posted on 02/16/2014 12:36:48 PM PST by Redcloak (Was that the primary buffer panel?)
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