A preliminary glance for 2016 Senate races shows that CO (Bennet) & NV (Reid) are likely to be GOP gains. Perhaps only WA State (Murray) may be competitive beyond that.
The Dems have a shot at FL (Rubio), IL (Kirk), PA (Toomey) & WI (Johnson), though I see nothing beyond that for them. Frankly, if Kirk were defeated, it would be no loss at all for us.
I’m more concerned about replacing the raft of old RINOs and establishment types that are in that class:
AL-Shelby (82 years old and 38 years total in Congress)
AK-Murkowski (59, ‘nuff said)
AZ-McCain (80, 34 years in Congress)
AR-Boozman (66)
FL-Rubio (sold out in the first year)
GA-Isakson (72)
ID-Crapo (65, 24 years in Congress)
IL-Kirk (57, ‘nuff said)
IN-Coats (73, you got your comeback, Dan, now it’s time for some new blood)
IA-Grassley (83, 42 years in Congress — though I have concerns with an open seat, especially if Vilsack decides to run)
KS-Moran (62, 20 years in Congress)
KY-Paul (who has concerned me from the start)
LA-Vitter (unless he gets elected Governor, this will probably go to Jindal - though I’d rather keep Vitter)
MO-Blunt (66, 20 years in Congress, epitome of the establishment leadership)
NH-Ayotte (a true disappointment, but I see no viable replacements)
NC-Burr (61, 22 years in Congress)
ND-Hoeven (59)
OH-Portman (61, 18+ combined years, went nuts on gay marriage, needs to be dumped)
OK-TBD (either Lankford or Shannon)
PA-Toomey (55, no longer the star we thought him to be, places second in level of disappointment to Rubio)
SC-Scott (51, no particular complaints, though I’d like him to step up more to support Cruz)
SD-Thune (55, a hero when he defeated Daschle, has barely registered a blip since, 18 years in Congress, time for Kristi Noem to replace him)
UT-Lee (no problems, though the establishment wants his scalp as much as we want most of the rest of the Senate)
WI-Johnson (61, has also been moving towards the “disappointment” side)
McCain I suspect will retire. If he doesn’t I hope he’s primaried out but I wouldn’t be optimistic after the last try.
Grassley, no matter how old he is I’d be happy if he ran again rather than created an open seat in Iowa in a POTUS year.
Shelby, I’d compare to Cochran. I hope he retires, if he doesn’t he should be challenged. I never liked that former rat. It’s a shame he edged Admiral Denton in 1986.
Isakson might quit, wasn’t he sick or something?
I’d love to see Thune get a serious challenge, something tells me the freepers calling for Roberts head will probably be none to eager too go after a more legitimate target.
Portman, puke. That will be an acid test for GOP toleration for fagatronics.
Murkowski of course will be public enemy #1 in terms of RINOs who should be primaried. It will take someone better than Joe Miller to beat her (presumably twice, just like last time).
I wonder how Kirk can survive. It’ll be a presidential year, where no Republican presidential candidate has won IL since 1988, and really no one has come close, so Kirk will have to fight negative coattails. Plus Kirk swept all but four counties and still only got 48 percent of the vote.
Of course, I shed no tears for him if he does lose.
If Vitter gets elected governor, he’ll be able to appoint his replacement. I have never heard of him possibly considering Jindal (the two men aren’t especially close), although I would gladly take Jindal over the other GOP statewide officeholders. I figured Vitter might go for Rep. John Fleming.
Coats helped scare Bayh into retirement (who ironically scared Coats into retirement in 1998). I wonder if Coats really will go in 2016 or if he ends up being a lifer. Lugar would have been if Mourdock hadn’t taken him out.
Well written and insightful.