Skip to comments.Climatology Fail
Posted on 02/24/2014 1:06:46 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Climatology has been falling on its face lately. In addition to the failure of global warming predictions to come true in the last 16 years of "pause," this year's severe winter for most of the country came as a surprise to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That august taxpayer-funded climatology center "predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states," according to Bloomberg BusinessWeek.....
.......The predictive models in use seem to have some major flaws. Climatology is a relatively young discipline, yet has received major funding for its research based on the apocalyptic claims made about global warming. The field is almost entirely based on complex mathematical models. Models are fine, but they need to rigorously be refined, and for that to be effective, assumptions must be challenged. With a phenomenon as complex as climate, the assumptions must be incredibly numerous, so correcting and refining may take a long, long time.
This process is cut short when political and bureaucratic pressure exists to find a catastrophe that strengthens the power of regulators in the name of saving the planet.
The analogy may be very loose, but phrenology was once regarded as a science. It posited a relationship based on a faulty model, between skull configuration and mental function.
Today, phrenology is an embarrassment in the history of science. I am not suggesting that the entire field of climatology is as mistaken as phrenology was, but rather that its foundations are also shaky, since the underlying relationships hypothesized (in AGW at least) are speculative, and may lack or insufficiently weight many important processes.
Climatology has a long way to go before it merits the clout to reshape our energy production and use.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Today, when the sun went down, the temperature dropped 20 degress in 3 hours. If this trend continues, in a day it will be over 100 below zero!! Quick, we need to give the government total power over our lives before it is too late!
“Climatology is a relatively young discipline” and yet we are told the science is settled. This makes me want to punch a scientist or a greenie but especially a science greenie - Settle Mel...Breathe ......not too much CO2 though ...!
I’ve noticed in the last day or two....the sun rising seconds ahead of when it rose yesterday. Is this the end? Will the sun just keep rising earlier, and earlier? Then, there’s no sun-down? I slept through high school science, and I now realize how much I missed in those valuable hours lost.
“Virtually all scientists directly involved in climate prediction are aware of the enormous uncertainties associated with their product. How is it that they can place hands over hearts and swear that human emissions of carbon dioxide are wrecking the planet?”
“...In the light of all this, we have at least to consider the possibility that the scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problemor, what is much the same thing, of seriously understating the uncertainties associated with the climate problemin its effort to promote the cause. It is a particularly nasty trap in the context of science, because it risks destroying, perhaps for centuries to come, the unique and hard-won reputation for honesty which is the basis of societys respect for scientific endeavour. Trading reputational capital for short-term political gain isnt the most sensible way of going about things.
The trap was set in the late 1970s or thereabouts when the environmental movement first realised that doing something about global warming would play to quite a number of its social agendas. At much the same time, it became accepted wisdom around the corridors of power that government-funded scientists (that is, most scientists) should be required to obtain a goodly fraction of their funds and salaries from external sourcesexternal anyway to their own particular organisation.
The scientists in environmental research laboratories, since they are not normally linked to any particular private industry, were forced to seek funds from other government departments. In turn this forced them to accept the need for advocacy and for the manipulation of public opinion. For that sort of activity, an arms-length association with the environmental movement would be a union made in heaven. Among other things it would provide a means by which scientists could distance themselves from responsibility for any public overstatement of the significance of their particular research problem.
The trap was partially sprung in climate research when a number of the relevant scientists began to enjoy the advocacy business. The enjoyment was based on a considerable increase in funding and employment opportunity. The increase was not so much on the hard-science side of things but rather in the emerging fringe institutes and organisations devoted, at least in part, to selling the message of climatic doom. A new and rewarding research lifestyle emerged which involved the giving of advice to all types and levels of government, the broadcasting of unchallengeable opinion to the general public, and easy justification for attendance at international conferencesthis last in some luxury by normal scientific experience, and at a frequency previously unheard of.
Somewhere along the line it came to be believed by many of the public, and indeed by many of the scientists themselves, that climate researchers were the equivalent of knights on white steeds fighting a great battle against the forces of evilevil, that is, in the shape of big oil and its supposedly unlimited money. The delusion was more than a little attractive.
The trap was fully sprung when many of the worlds major national academies of science (such as the Royal Society in the UK, the National Academy of Sciences in the USA and the Australian Academy of Science) persuaded themselves to issue reports giving support to the conclusions of the IPCC. The reports were touted as national assessments that were supposedly independent of the IPCC and of each other, but of necessity were compiled with the assistance of, and in some cases at the behest of, many of the scientists involved in the IPCC international machinations. In effect, the academies, which are the most prestigious of the institutions of science, formally nailed their colours to the mast of the politically correct........”
“I slept through high school science, and I now realize how much I missed in those valuable hours lost.”
Not to worry. With the sun rise earlier and sun set later every day you can make it up with those longer hours.
And if you were smart, like me, you would have bought two properties in Australia about an hour apart. That way when it is always sunny on the right half of the globe, I can just drive an hour to the left where it is night time and get some shut eye. If I want to.
The Society of Environmental Journalism SEJ
About SEJ "The Society of Environmental Journalists is the only North-American membership association of professional journalists dedicated to more and better coverage of environment-related issues. SEJs mission is to strengthen the quality, reach and viability of journalism across all media to advance public understanding of environmental issues.
SEJ is an independent, nonpartisan educational association dedicated to the highest standards of public service journalism. SEJs 2012 operating budget of $864,369 (audited figure) was underwritten by foundation grants, dues, fees, university and media company sponsorship and unrestricted gifts up to $15,000 from any source.
The organization was founded in 1990 by award-winning print and broadcast journalists on staff with The Philadelphia Inquirer, USA Today, National Geographic, Turner Broadcasting/CNN, Scripps Howard News Service, Minnesota Public Radio and others. SEJs membership now includes more than 1,500 highly qualified journalists, editors, educators and students working in print, broadcast and online news media throughout the U.S., Canada, Mexico and 27 other countries. Members and others who use SEJ services report environmental news and information to millions of readers, listeners and viewers worldwide, on a daily basis.
In 2010, SEJ was co-winner of the Gulbenkian International Prize, which distinguishes an individual or institution "whose thoughts or actions make a decisive contribution to and have significant impact on understanding, defending or fostering the universal values of the human condition."
SEJ established a Diversity Task Force in 2010 to foster and promote greater coverage and understanding of environmental issues that affect minority and other marginalized communities. "SEJers, UNITY Coalition J-group partner members (i.e., NABJ, NAHJ, AAJA, NAJA) and other SEJ membership-eligible journalists are encouraged to join the DTF's SEJ-DIVERSITY email discussion listserv. The open listserv forum is intended to support the goals of the DTF and promote collaboration, such as connecting SEJ panel submissions with other sister journalism groups. To join the listserv or to find out more about volunteer opportunities for SEJ members and UNITY J-group partner members, contact DTF co-chair Ayana Meade."
So the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration got it wrong. And the Farmers Almanac got it right, much to my disappointment.
Now they are saying volcanoes are causing the temps to NOT rise.
OUTSTANDING posts/links/article. Thanks. (I saw the link on the Fund-Ukraine article)
OK!! Everybody pay attention!
Lesson for today:
1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.
2. The sun is a ball of fire that controls the climates of all its planets.
3. The earth is one of the suns planets.
4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.
5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.
Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?
Climatology is a relatively
young bogus pseudo-sience... Fixed that one
The field is almost entirely based on complex mathematical models.
The field is
almost entirely based on complex mathematical models. complete fiction and wishful thinking. Any "complex models" are simply computer programs written to produce a specific graphic result, not actually analyze anything. Fixed another one.
And on March 9th we will gain another hour of daylight! And as sure as anything can be you will hear people complaining that the extra hour of sunlight burns the grass! I think it is a conspiracy of the sun block manufacturers, big sunblock! Coppertone started it.
We aren't smart enough to generate a computer model that takes into account the many quantum kinetic and static features of nature. The Universe is not linear, stable, nor without new factors generating and known factors going dormant, like computer program executions perform.
Exactly, Pepsionice! Furthermore, I can prove global warming is caused by man! During the night, when all the people are asleep, it is cooler and in the day, when they are moving about, it is much warmer! Please have them send my Nobel prize directly to my home and not the post office box, thank you.
Never let a nonlinearity go to waste.
A correction to the author’s assertion: climatology as practiced in the Anglosphere has fallen on its face. What I like to call the Russo-Danish school of climatology, which studies the sun, rather than general circulation models of the earth’s atmosphere, has been having its predictions upheld lately.
Quite frankly mankind had better hope there really is something to anthropogenic global warming, because if there isn’t, it looks like we’re headed for at best another Little Ice Age, and at worse an actual Ice Age. Humanity does better during warm periods (what used to be called “climate optima” before the statists decided scaring us with “runaway” global warming would be a good way to increase the reach of the state).
As a programmer one must constantly determine to self-satisfaction that the code just written is functioning correctly.
Lacking external benchmarks this presents the opportunity to self-delude one of their own inherent brilliance.
Add to that the lure of continued funding and, voila, Anthropogenic Global Warming models that support the delusion of AGW.
Could that have something to do with the power and cash kicked back to corrupt democrat politicians?
Only various scientists trying to develop one.
Thanks Cincinatus’ Wife.