Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Climatology Fail
The American Thinker ^ | February 23, 2014

Posted on 02/24/2014 1:06:46 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

Climatology has been falling on its face lately. In addition to the failure of global warming predictions to come true in the last 16 years of "pause," this year's severe winter for most of the country came as a surprise to the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That august taxpayer-funded climatology center "predicted that temperatures would be above normal from November through January across much of the Lower 48 states," according to Bloomberg BusinessWeek.....

[SNIP]

.......The predictive models in use seem to have some major flaws. Climatology is a relatively young discipline, yet has received major funding for its research based on the apocalyptic claims made about global warming. The field is almost entirely based on complex mathematical models. Models are fine, but they need to rigorously be refined, and for that to be effective, assumptions must be challenged. With a phenomenon as complex as climate, the assumptions must be incredibly numerous, so correcting and refining may take a long, long time.

This process is cut short when political and bureaucratic pressure exists to find a catastrophe that strengthens the power of regulators in the name of saving the planet.

The analogy may be very loose, but phrenology was once regarded as a science. It posited a relationship based on a faulty model, between skull configuration and mental function.

Today, phrenology is an embarrassment in the history of science. I am not suggesting that the entire field of climatology is as mistaken as phrenology was, but rather that its foundations are also shaky, since the underlying relationships hypothesized (in AGW at least) are speculative, and may lack or insufficiently weight many important processes.

Climatology has a long way to go before it merits the clout to reshape our energy production and use.

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government
KEYWORDS: climate; climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; science

1 posted on 02/24/2014 1:06:47 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
Just read the WP page on Climate change in the Arctic An end to summer sea ice? The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 summarized the current state of sea ice projections: "the projected reduction [in global sea ice cover] is accelerated in the Arctic, where some models project summer sea ice cover to disappear entirely in the high-emission A2 scenario in the latter part of the 21st century.″ [33] However, current climate models frequently underestimate the rate of sea ice retreat.[34] A summertime ice-free arctic would be unprecedented in recorded history and beyond, as currently no scientific evidence supports a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean anytime in the last 700,000 years, even though there were periods when the Arctic was warmer than it is today.[35][36] The Arctic ocean will likely be free of summer sea ice before the year 2100, but many different dates have been projected. One study suggests 2060–2080,[37] another 2030,[38][39] and, yet another, 2016.[40][41] A 2013 study showed that simply extending summertime ice melting trends into the future in a straight line predicts an ice-free summertime Arctic as early as by 2020.[42][43]
2 posted on 02/24/2014 1:12:51 AM PST by daniel1212 (Come to the Lord Jesus as a contrite damned+destitute sinner, trust Him to save you, then live 4 Him)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: daniel1212

Today, when the sun went down, the temperature dropped 20 degress in 3 hours. If this trend continues, in a day it will be over 100 below zero!! Quick, we need to give the government total power over our lives before it is too late!


3 posted on 02/24/2014 1:23:32 AM PST by ArtDodger
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

“Climatology is a relatively young discipline” and yet we are told the science is settled. This makes me want to punch a scientist or a greenie but especially a science greenie - Settle Mel...Breathe ......not too much CO2 though ...!


4 posted on 02/24/2014 1:26:46 AM PST by melsec (Once a Jolly Swagman camped by a Billabong.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ArtDodger

I’ve noticed in the last day or two....the sun rising seconds ahead of when it rose yesterday. Is this the end? Will the sun just keep rising earlier, and earlier? Then, there’s no sun-down? I slept through high school science, and I now realize how much I missed in those valuable hours lost.


5 posted on 02/24/2014 1:31:19 AM PST by pepsionice
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: daniel1212; melsec; All

“Virtually all scientists directly involved in climate prediction are aware of the enormous uncertainties associated with their product. How is it that they can place hands over hearts and swear that human emissions of carbon dioxide are wrecking the planet?”

http://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2014/01-02/fundamental-uncertainties-climate-change/

“...In the light of all this, we have at least to consider the possibility that the scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problem—or, what is much the same thing, of seriously understating the uncertainties associated with the climate problem—in its effort to promote the cause. It is a particularly nasty trap in the context of science, because it risks destroying, perhaps for centuries to come, the unique and hard-won reputation for honesty which is the basis of society’s respect for scientific endeavour. Trading reputational capital for short-term political gain isn’t the most sensible way of going about things.

The trap was set in the late 1970s or thereabouts when the environmental movement first realised that doing something about global warming would play to quite a number of its social agendas. At much the same time, it became accepted wisdom around the corridors of power that government-funded scientists (that is, most scientists) should be required to obtain a goodly fraction of their funds and salaries from external sources—external anyway to their own particular organisation.

The scientists in environmental research laboratories, since they are not normally linked to any particular private industry, were forced to seek funds from other government departments. In turn this forced them to accept the need for advocacy and for the manipulation of public opinion. For that sort of activity, an arm’s-length association with the environmental movement would be a union made in heaven. Among other things it would provide a means by which scientists could distance themselves from responsibility for any public overstatement of the significance of their particular research problem.

The trap was partially sprung in climate research when a number of the relevant scientists began to enjoy the advocacy business. The enjoyment was based on a considerable increase in funding and employment opportunity. The increase was not so much on the hard-science side of things but rather in the emerging fringe institutes and organisations devoted, at least in part, to selling the message of climatic doom. A new and rewarding research lifestyle emerged which involved the giving of advice to all types and levels of government, the broadcasting of unchallengeable opinion to the general public, and easy justification for attendance at international conferences—this last in some luxury by normal scientific experience, and at a frequency previously unheard of.

Somewhere along the line it came to be believed by many of the public, and indeed by many of the scientists themselves, that climate researchers were the equivalent of knights on white steeds fighting a great battle against the forces of evil—evil, that is, in the shape of “big oil” and its supposedly unlimited money. The delusion was more than a little attractive.

The trap was fully sprung when many of the world’s major national academies of science (such as the Royal Society in the UK, the National Academy of Sciences in the USA and the Australian Academy of Science) persuaded themselves to issue reports giving support to the conclusions of the IPCC. The reports were touted as national assessments that were supposedly independent of the IPCC and of each other, but of necessity were compiled with the assistance of, and in some cases at the behest of, many of the scientists involved in the IPCC international machinations. In effect, the academies, which are the most prestigious of the institutions of science, formally nailed their colours to the mast of the politically correct........”


6 posted on 02/24/2014 1:36:20 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: pepsionice

“I slept through high school science, and I now realize how much I missed in those valuable hours lost.”

Not to worry. With the sun rise earlier and sun set later every day you can make it up with those longer hours.

And if you were smart, like me, you would have bought two properties in Australia about an hour apart. That way when it is always sunny on the right half of the globe, I can just drive an hour to the left where it is night time and get some shut eye. If I want to.


7 posted on 02/24/2014 1:45:16 AM PST by 21twelve (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2185147/posts 2013 is 1933 REBORN)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: All
Excerpted article in Post #6 ".....Somewhere along the line it came to be believed by many of the public, and indeed by many of the scientists themselves, that climate researchers were the equivalent of knights on white steeds fighting a great battle against the forces of evil—evil, that is, in the shape of “big oil” and its supposedly unlimited money. The delusion was more than a little attractive....."

______________________________________________

The Society of Environmental Journalism SEJ

About SEJ "The Society of Environmental Journalists is the only North-American membership association of professional journalists dedicated to more and better coverage of environment-related issues. SEJ’s mission is to strengthen the quality, reach and viability of journalism across all media to advance public understanding of environmental issues.

SEJ is an independent, nonpartisan educational association dedicated to the highest standards of public service journalism. SEJ’s 2012 operating budget of $864,369 (audited figure) was underwritten by foundation grants, dues, fees, university and media company sponsorship and unrestricted gifts up to $15,000 from any source.

The organization was founded in 1990 by award-winning print and broadcast journalists on staff with The Philadelphia Inquirer, USA Today, National Geographic, Turner Broadcasting/CNN, Scripps Howard News Service, Minnesota Public Radio and others. SEJ’s membership now includes more than 1,500 highly qualified journalists, editors, educators and students working in print, broadcast and online news media throughout the U.S., Canada, Mexico and 27 other countries. Members and others who use SEJ services report environmental news and information to millions of readers, listeners and viewers worldwide, on a daily basis.

Spotlight on SEJ Members
SEJ Member Affiliations
Download the SEJ brochure (PDF / 6.48 MB).

In 2010, SEJ was co-winner of the Gulbenkian International Prize, which distinguishes an individual or institution "whose thoughts or actions make a decisive contribution to and have significant impact on understanding, defending or fostering the universal values of the human condition."

SEJ established a Diversity Task Force in 2010 to foster and promote greater coverage and understanding of environmental issues that affect minority and other marginalized communities. "SEJers, UNITY Coalition J-group partner members (i.e., NABJ, NAHJ, AAJA, NAJA) and other SEJ membership-eligible journalists are encouraged to join the DTF's SEJ-DIVERSITY email discussion listserv. The open listserv forum is intended to support the goals of the DTF and promote collaboration, such as connecting SEJ panel submissions with other sister journalism groups. To join the listserv or to find out more about volunteer opportunities for SEJ members and UNITY J-group partner members, contact DTF co-chair Ayana Meade."

8 posted on 02/24/2014 1:45:27 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: All
Drag a Hundred Dollar Bill through a School of Journalism "Somebody needs to tell the FCC: you don't buy a cow when the milk is free.".....
9 posted on 02/24/2014 1:46:38 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

So the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration got it wrong. And the Farmers Almanac got it right, much to my disappointment.


10 posted on 02/24/2014 2:26:11 AM PST by Thidwick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

Now they are saying volcanoes are causing the temps to NOT rise.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/volcanic-eruptions-contributed-to-global-warming-pause-scientists-claim-9147856.html


11 posted on 02/24/2014 2:49:58 AM PST by Right Wing Assault
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

OUTSTANDING posts/links/article. Thanks. (I saw the link on the Fund-Ukraine article)


12 posted on 02/24/2014 2:53:33 AM PST by PGalt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

BTTT.


13 posted on 02/24/2014 3:00:29 AM PST by P.O.E. (Pray for America)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

OK!! Everybody pay attention!

Lesson for today:

1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.

2. The sun is a ball of fire that controls the climates of all its planets.

3. The earth is one of the sun’s planets.

4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.

5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.

Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?


14 posted on 02/24/2014 3:22:24 AM PST by abclily
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: sauropod

.


15 posted on 02/24/2014 3:25:43 AM PST by sauropod (Fat Bottomed Girl: "What difference, at this point, does it make?")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
Climatology is a relatively young discipline,

Climatology is a relatively young bogus pseudo-sience... Fixed that one

The field is almost entirely based on complex mathematical models.

The field is almost entirely based on complex mathematical models. complete fiction and wishful thinking. Any "complex models" are simply computer programs written to produce a specific graphic result, not actually analyze anything. Fixed another one.

16 posted on 02/24/2014 4:02:51 AM PST by from occupied ga (Your government is your most dangerous enemy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 21twelve

And on March 9th we will gain another hour of daylight! And as sure as anything can be you will hear people complaining that the extra hour of sunlight burns the grass! I think it is a conspiracy of the sun block manufacturers, big sunblock! Coppertone started it.


17 posted on 02/24/2014 4:26:31 AM PST by mc5cents (Pray for America)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

Computer modeling is also used to pick the winner of the NCAA men's basketball playoffs.

We aren't smart enough to generate a computer model that takes into account the many quantum kinetic and static features of nature. The Universe is not linear, stable, nor without new factors generating and known factors going dormant, like computer program executions perform.

18 posted on 02/24/2014 4:39:54 AM PST by USCG SimTech (Honored to serve since '71)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: pepsionice

Exactly, Pepsionice! Furthermore, I can prove global warming is caused by man! During the night, when all the people are asleep, it is cooler and in the day, when they are moving about, it is much warmer! Please have them send my Nobel prize directly to my home and not the post office box, thank you.


19 posted on 02/24/2014 5:15:15 AM PST by ArtDodger
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: USCG SimTech
The Universe is not linear, stable, nor without new factors generating and known factors going dormant...

Never let a nonlinearity go to waste.

20 posted on 02/24/2014 5:45:25 AM PST by Steely Tom (How do you feel about robbing Peter's robot?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife

A correction to the author’s assertion: climatology as practiced in the Anglosphere has fallen on its face. What I like to call the Russo-Danish school of climatology, which studies the sun, rather than general circulation models of the earth’s atmosphere, has been having its predictions upheld lately.

Quite frankly mankind had better hope there really is something to anthropogenic global warming, because if there isn’t, it looks like we’re headed for at best another Little Ice Age, and at worse an actual Ice Age. Humanity does better during warm periods (what used to be called “climate optima” before the statists decided scaring us with “runaway” global warming would be a good way to increase the reach of the state).


21 posted on 02/24/2014 5:58:45 AM PST by The_Reader_David (And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: from occupied ga
Amen!

As a programmer one must constantly determine to self-satisfaction that the code just written is functioning correctly.

Lacking external benchmarks this presents the opportunity to self-delude one of their own inherent brilliance.

Add to that the lure of continued funding and, voila, Anthropogenic Global Warming models that support the delusion of AGW.

22 posted on 02/24/2014 6:32:03 AM PST by Aevery_Freeman (Politics are just the rules - Power is the game!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
Climatology is a relatively young discipline, yet has received major funding for its research based on the apocalyptic claims made about global warming.

Could that have something to do with the power and cash kicked back to corrupt democrat politicians?

23 posted on 02/24/2014 7:18:40 AM PST by GOPJ ("Great powers are driven by a mixture of confidence and insecurity.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: melsec
There IS NO Climate Science.

Only various scientists trying to develop one.

24 posted on 02/24/2014 4:51:31 PM PST by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks Cincinatus’ Wife.


25 posted on 02/25/2014 3:30:12 PM PST by SunkenCiv (http://www.freerepublic.com/~mestamachine/)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson