U.S. Spies Said No Russian Invasion of Ukraine—Putin Disagreed

The Daily Beast ^ | 1 Mar 2014 | Eli Lake,Christopher Dickey

[mandaladon]

A day after U.S. intelligence said there would be no Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s troops started coming over the border. On Thursday night, the best assessment from the U.S. intelligence community—and for that matter most experts observing events in Ukraine—was that Vladimir Putin’s military would not invade Ukraine. Less than 24 hours later, however, there are reports from the ground of Russian troops pushing into the Ukrainian province of Crimea; the newly-installed Crimean prime minister has appealed to Putin to help him secure the country; Putin, in turn, is officially asking for parliament's permission to send Russian forces into Ukraine. It’s not a full-blown invasion—at least, not yet. But it’s not the picture U.S. analysts were painting just a day before, either.

There was good reason to think Putin wouldn’t do it. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov told Secretary of State John Kerry that Russia respected the territorial integrity of the Ukraine. U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that the 150,000-man Russian military exercises announced by Putin on Wednesday were not preparations for an invasion of Ukraine because no medical units accompanied the troops. And Russian and U.S. diplomats were still working on Iran and Syrian diplomacy. All of this followed a successful Winter Olympic games for Putin’s Russia.

Yet private security contractors, working for the Russian military, seized control of two airports in Crimea on Friday. And Ukrainian border officials said that Russian cargo planes had landed inside the province, and that 10 military helicopters flew into Ukrainian airspace. U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence on the fast moving situation in Ukraine tell The Daily Beast that analytic products from the intelligence community this week did not discount the prospect of Russian provocations and even light incursions in the Russian majority province of Crimea,

[mandaladon]

Nonetheless, until Friday, no one anticipated a Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory."Nobody thought Putin was going to invade last night,” one Senate aide who works closely on the Ukraine crisis. ..................Guess what?

[tbpiper]

This administration would have to improve 1000% just to up to the level of 'incompetent'.

[shankbear]

This administration is horrible. A joke. They need to be thrown out of office. The Obama Red Lines are all over the place now. All of them have been crossed with impunity. Our president is a coward at best.

[1rudeboy]

This goes straight to a pet peeve of mine: I don't care if you think that Putin will not invade. Your job is to assume he will.

And let's be frank . . . if Vegas was to lay odds . . . .

[mandaladon]

it's obvious that Putin calculated correctly yet again. The United States was gulled into thinking that Russia would forbear this time because the siloviki gave assurances to a U.S. diplomatic corps eager to believe anything that it would do. Washington’s own intelligence community, fresh from proclaiming a year ago that Bashar al-Assad had “weeks left” in power, assessed yesterday that “we don’t have any reason to think” that the surprise drill of 150,000 soldiers announced overnight by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu would amount to “more than military exercises.” And given that the United States has yet to definitively label what transpired eight months ago in Egypt a “coup,” the Kremlin must have also reckoned that a rapid takeover of Crimea would be all over but for the shouting as Washington sputtered to define exactly what had just transpired, much less attempted a coherent response to yet another international crisis. Who needs “fraternal assistance” when American officials themselves have coined the unbeatable euphemism “uncontested arrival” to describe a Russian invasion of one of its neighbors?.............Putin gives Obama the finger...again.

[Chgogal]

US Intelligence??? You mean the ones downloading all OUR stuff? You mean the Obama’s butt kissers? You mean the ones who told us Benghazi was due to a homemade video? LOL...now...ROTHLMAO!

But no worries world! We here in the US are enjoying our Happy Hour with the 1st World President Obama who is busy lowering the world's oceans, yada, yada, yada.

Oh yes, and to earn his Nobel Peace Prize, he reducing our military to before WW2 strength. Happy Days are here again!

[Berlin_Freeper]

Russian spies said Obama would run away.

[Grampa Dave]

When NSA focuses on Tea Party Members, male Christians, registered Republicans, all cell phone calls made by Americans to anyone, and people opposing Obozo Care, they wouldn’t have any resources to monitor any real problems.

Even, if any potential incursion plans were intercepted, the Out House and its band of left wing thugs would have ignored the report and buried it like the Benghazi cover up.

[bereanway]

One former U.S. intelligence officer told The Daily Beast he expects Russian operatives to begin launching false flag style operations designed to look like terrorist attacks or arms shipments to anti-Russian groups in Crimea and to leak alleged conversations implicating Kiev and the CIA in these drummed up events.*****

Putin must have found one of the CIA’s playbooks left behind in Syria.

[SECURE AMERICA]

When you have a President that is incompetent then you will have people around him that are incompetent.

[edcoil]

Feckless.
Feckless President
Feckless government employees

[Cowboy Bob]

Don’t blame the CIA. They are too busy preparing to celebrate “Diversity Month.”

[mojito]

Chalk up another pathetic failure for the Washington foreign policy and intelligence “experts.”

I’m so glad that these people are keeping us safe in a dangerous world.

[1rudeboy]

C’mon, the Russians have been doing it for decades. If anything, they wrote the playbook that the CIA stole.

[Grampa Dave]

"The Obama Red Lines are all over the place now. All of them have been crossed with impunity." Thanks to Daniel Greenfield for the remarks below to explain where we are with Obozo as POTUS.

The Post-American order stands for nothing except its own dismantling. That is why Obama sets red lines that he won’t enforce and issues threats that he doesn’t mean.

The only thing less appealing than selfishness is the complete absence of self. The only thing less appealing than empire is an anti-imperialism that so thoroughly negates its own power that it has no influence and no reason to exist.

Post-American America exists to destroy itself. Until that changes, it has nothing to offer the world except membership in a suicide pact.

[Ophiucus]

Obama, doing foreign policy the Chamberlain way

[struggle]

This is what happens when you have a commander in chief that fights for gay marriage in the military instead of preparing the military for a fight.

[Balding_Eagle]

In 2009 Palin predicted the invasion. US intelligence (as of THURSDAY?) couldn’t see it happening?

Oh God.

[Diogenesis]

Absolute liars, psychopaths, and at their BEST incompetent undocumented sociopaths.

[Lazamataz]

U.S. Spies Said No Russian Invasion of Ukraine

That's the downside.

The UPside is that they have EVERY single email I have sent to my cousin about her newest recipe!