Ukraine vs. Russia -- here's what's really going on

FOX News ^ | Feb 28, 2014 | By Peter Brooks Heritage Foundation

[Jim Robinson]

When Moscow tells us that their massive military maneuvers in Western Russia have nothing to do with what’s happening in Kiev it’s like the old Marx Brothers’ routine: Who are you going to believe, me (Moscow) or your own eyes?

Puh-leez.

In fact, while not a major military incursion by Moscow, the ongoing power plays in Crimea manifested in the presence of yet-unidentified, armed Russia-loyalists at two airports could be an ominous harbinger of things to come.

First, Moscow is signaling strength to Kiev, reminding their western neighbor that Mother Russia is a force to be reckoned with. You Ukrainians may be able to change your government—against Russian wishes—but you can’t change your geography.

“Location, location, location” doesn’t just apply to real estate, it matters in geopolitics, too.

Russia is also flexing its muscles at the Europeans and the United States. Moscow is cautioning the “West” that the “East” won’t brook any foolish attempts to bring Ukraine into a European or American sphere of influence.

Remember that the ongoing crisis was precipitated last November when Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich scuttled a trade pact with the European Union in exchange for a competing economic package from Russia, leading to months of street protests.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also wants to make it crystal clear that Russia considers any thought of trying to bring Ukraine into NATO a complete non-starter. Indeed, it’s a move Moscow might even go to war over.

[dfwgator]

Well they got Lwow from Poland, so they shouldn’t complain. Russians giveth, Russians taketh away.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks JimRob.

[Jimmy Valentine]

The problem is that Ukraine has significant assets (coal iron ore heavy industry) as well as an enormous agricultural segment. Too it is a buffer against land invasion a traditional worry for Russia. Putin wants it all back

[AnAmericanAbroad]

Intimidation has its own value, mostly domestically for Putin. He gets to look like a total badass and create the illusion that Russia is a superpower again.

But if you look beneath the surface, a good deal of it is all hat, no cattle. Their economy, aside from being a straight-up kleptocracy more akin to a vast Mafia protection racket than a free-market system, is extremely dependent on energy and resource exports. It’s a major vulnerability, economically speaking.

[Jim Robinson]

Have no idea what Putin’s designs are, but if he has in mind establishing Russia as the dominate superpower this could be his opportunity. The western world will do nothing if he annexes all of the Ukraine. Doubt he’ll make any sudden military moves after that, but who knows? He may not have to. He can simply wait until the idiot Obama finishes bankrupting America and destroying our defenses. If America goes under, it’ll create a helluva problem for China (which also has dreams of becoming the dominate superpower) and big problems for the entire world for that matter. We owe so much money to China that if we default, they could be toast. Not only that, but we’re their major customer. And socialist Europe is about to collapse anyway. I think we could be in for a bit of a problem here.

[nuconvert]

*

[VerySadAmerican]

Yep. The “war on women” will become a war on all of us.

[AnAmericanAbroad]

A Czech friend of mine gave me an interesting analogy in regard to Putin. Stalin's biggest mistake was in trusting Hitler; Stalin assumed that Der Führer was a rational actor on the world stage. In fairness, up to the point that Operation Barbarossa began, Hitler did look like a rational actor, and a rather victorious one to boot, having conquered continental Europe. But in hindsight, we now know that Hitler was not a rational actor; he was a lunatic and a military adventurer/conqueror who had a brilliant run of the good fortunes of war. Of course, that run ran out. Here's the nub of her argument. What if we're making the same mistake regarding Putin? What if, despite appearances, Putin is not the rational actor we all assume him to be? What if he rolls into Ukraine, and then says, "Hey....Poland's right over there. What the hell?! Keep them tanks rolling, boys!" Right into NATO territory. That's the concern here in this part of Europe, and I can't say I entirely disagree with it. After all, these good people know first hand the consequences of assuming that the tyrant next door is going to be satisfied with his bowl of borscht, and then he starts eyeing your plate of pork chops, sauerkraut and potatoes.

[NurdlyPeon]

All very true, and now we’re seeing how Putin operates. He stirs up trouble in a nation or an area he covets, claims “Oh, ethnic Russians are practically being lynched in the streets! We must do something!” and them - BOOM - in roll the tanks. I’ve seen this movie before. That the Western world seems so oblivious to it is frightening.

How PUTIN operates? How is this any different than what Obama and the RATs are doing here in the U.S. with the blacks and the queers and the mexicans? "Oblivious"? More likely it's being studied in detail with an eye toward tweaking their operations in the U.S. (I'm honestly having difficulty deciding whether to put a sarc tag on this or not.)

[jmacusa]

Ukrainians have no love for Russkies. I can’t imagine any Russian soldier wanting to die fighting Ukrainians but I can imagine a Ukrainian soldier wanting to kill a Russian soldier in defense of Ukraine.

[Navy Patriot]

We should bear in mind that Russia has been willing to protect ethnic Russians, Russian nationals and or former Soviet regions that were separated from the Motherland...

What a novel idea, maybe Obama should try it for Americans, on the Mexican border, for a start.

[Billthedrill]

Exactly who will stop Putin? Our Fearless Leader can't even spare the time to be briefed on the matter. NATO has neither the will nor the resources necessary to project power to the Crimean peninsula, and the EU isn't going to stop purchasing Russian energy. Putin holds all the cards except for one: his pipelines are vulnerable to a prolonged campaign of sabotage and civil disobedience. That's not much, but it's something.

[Navy Patriot]

Are there any doubts at all that the US inspired these protests to escalate to a violent overthrow of a government?

Apparently there is a lot of doubt on FR.

[Mariner]

It's unlikely Russian tanks will drive into Ukraine proper UNLESS the Ukrainians resist militarily the Russian para-military incorporation of the historic Russian Empire.

We can expect pro-Russian uprisings throughout the regions east of the Dnieper river, Crimea...and along the southern coast of Ukraine, though Odessa. We might even see a continuous bloc of pro-Russian "governments reaching all the way to "Trinisteria" near Romania.

But I suspect they'll be done by then.

After all, who wants to take on the BASKET CASE of the "Balkanized" Western Ukraine? Nobody wants that, not even the Russians.

They'd be happy to see the EU take that on.

[Navy Patriot]

I don’t want Ukraine joining NATO. That’s writing a check we can’t afford to cash.

Obama has no skin in this game.

Just the US military and middle class taxpayers that Obama and the Progressive DemoRats hate so much.

[sunrise_sunset]

East Ukraine manufactures a lot of Russia’s military components.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

I don’t know the answer to your question. Not sure the public does.

I personally believe the extreme actions of the former President of Ukraine reaped its own overthrow. Did the CIA help? I don’t know.

[goldstategop]

Western Ukrainians don’t - in the worst case scenario I don’t see Russia going further than the Dnieper River. I think that would be the probable limit of Russian conquests and it would also give Moscow a land bridge to Transnistria. IF there is a war.

Russia is simply to going to avoid Western Ukraine because it would not be welcome there and the costs of occupying it are simply too high to be worth the risk. The West can have it if it wants.

[Revolting cat!]

The new border will be drawn along the Crimea River.

[Billthedrill]

I saw what you did there.