Investment & Finance Thread 2014 New Year(Mar. 3 - nexttime edition)

Daily investment & finance thread ^ | Mar. 3, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

Investment & Finance Thread 2014 New Year(Mar. 3 - nexttime edition)

 

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here. 

Open invitation continues always for input on ideas for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.  

Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.

 

 

 

fwiw, these are the returns on $1,000 since 2010 for various investments:

Incidentally, the plan is to include here a ----so let me know if anyone wants on or off this ping.  Be advised that it gets posted only when I'm not feeling lazy and remember that we now know from studies that sloth is completely genetic and lazy people are the way they are because they were born that way. 

Bottom line is I can be as lazy as I want and society is required to grant me all the privileges that industrious people claim.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

So what do you think will come of this pissin match Obama’s got going with Putin?

[expat_panama]

great question!

It’s looking imho like time’s on our side & that we seem to be all shifting into ‘bumble along’ mode w/ troops sent in that don’t do anything & Crimea votes to join Russia and nothing happens. The longer things drag on the better the chances are what we’ll get is whatever will end up w/ the least complaining.

I may be wrong.

[expat_panama]

Wrapping up the week with calm stock indexes.  Again.  Actually yesterday medical stocks tanked and internet stocks peaked so maybe we're in what's been called a 'market rotation'.

World markets cautious ahead of US, China data

China's Money-Market Rate Completes Biggest Weekly Drop of 2014

S&P 500 ends at record on jobless data

[expat_panama]

This morning we got rumors about Russians using Ukrainian human shields and Canada expelling Russians. What’s your take on where we’re going?

[AK_47_7.62x39]

please add me to your ping list

[abb]

Bonds took a little hit yesterday, too.

[AK_47_7.62x39]

One of the reasons gloom and doom is popular is that it is quicker to make big money, and therefore attracts the speculator. Markets go down far quicker and with far more punch than they go up, usually. People who are on the right side of a serious deep correction can make a LOT of money in a hurry. The problem is that it is still base hits that win ball games. If I could accurately time the events that cause everyone to put down their drinks and rush wild eyed from the cocktail party screaming "FIRE FIRE!" then I would not need to trade, I could just sell news letters (hint, hint). Here is a note I made to a friend who is a fledgling hedge fund manager :

Fact is, though, almost no one makes those kinds of calls (shorting the mortgage market in fall 2008). Instead, I shorted Citi from 20 to 16, the dollar /yen from 84 to 78, BAC for 3 dollars, and another mortgage company from 20 down to 12. Not huge trades, but it was a string of winners. I can't retire on them, but they were good, healthy, trades.

My biggest mistake trading over the years has been to try to "FORCE" these trades because I want to be the guy who hit the home run. At age 58, I have concluded that I am not a home run hitter. I do make base hits, though when I WAIT FOR THE PITCHES.

If there is anything I could tell young guys entering the market is is not to get drunk on successful trades, in that you don't try to push them too far. Leave money on the table. Second is don't try to anticipate the big moves. Let it show you rather than you trying to argue with the market, because you will wind up giving away your money too many times that way.

[EVO X]

There is a lot of money sloshing around out there. I was in the Tampa area a few weeks ago and saw an ad or news clip about about a developer wanting to build a major ice hockey complex for the local kiddies and Canadian tourists. LOL, most of the Canadians I come across are beach bums or golfers..

[Wyatt's Torch]

NFP day! Consensus is +145

I for one can’t wait for all the “these numbers are made up by Obama” posts. Gotta love dealing with those idiots.

[expat_panama]

NFP day! Consensus is +145

On this site they say the market expects 163 and the briefing is 165.

I for one can’t wait for all the “these numbers are made up by Obama” posts. Gotta love dealing with those idiots.

imho it's too much to expect most folks to understand that on the one hand the numbers are honest and that on the other hand the numbers still show that workers without jobs jumped ten million in '09 and has perched there since.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

I generally agree with your assessment but there will probably be a few twists and turns. What worries me a little is that we are dealing with two narcissists and they could go beyond what is rational.

[expat_panama]

with pleasure —done.

[Wyatt's Torch]

I pulled the consensus from FactSet. Who knows...

And yeah I expect way too much around here. I should know better :-)

[expat_panama]

two narcissists and they could go beyond what is rational

That's right.  The traditional clinical psych question has always been whether crazy people are actually convinced of their delusions or do they somewhere keep 'two sets of books' that help in coping with reality.  My (hopeful) guess is that these two megalomaniacs are fully aware that they're making choices that will impact on their own personal well-being.

[expat_panama]

dang, my post didn't have the link ( http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html ) where I got my 'consensus'.  When you get a chance please share one for 'Factset'.

[Wyatt's Torch]

From Justin Wolfers - probably good advice as this number is going to be very distorted. As everything will be due to the severe weather.

“Best advice: Don’t pay much attention to this payrolls number. Wait ‘til next month, and look at average growth from November-February.”

[Wyatt's Torch]

+175 U3 rises to 6.7%

[expat_panama]

...quicker to make big money, and therefore attracts the speculator. Markets go down far quicker and with far more punch than they go up...

While that's absolutely true my experience shorting downturns has been the same as your friend's and my thinking is there are two big reasons.  One is that downturns are so extremely volatile; that day in '87 when indexes plopped 20% one day was followed by a double digit leap the next.  The other is that over the long run stocks go up; no getting around the fact that the future's bringing us expanding markets with population growth and productivity increases from advancing technology.

Bottom line is some folks can earn a living w/ shorts but imho they're too much work.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Private +162 exp +145

[Wyatt's Torch]

Participation rate steady at 63%