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Nate Silver's new Senate forecast could terrify Democrats into action
Yahoo News ^ | 23 Mar 2014 | Mark Sappenfield

Posted on 03/23/2014 5:02:53 PM PDT by mandaladon

Polling expert Nate Silver has come out with a new forecast: Republicans are currently favorites to take control of the Senate this fall. That prediction could open Democratic wallets. Nate Silver, the political prognosticator pilloried by Republicans for correctly predicting President Obama's convincing victory in 2012, has perhaps just given the GOP another reason to curse him.

He has predicted that Republicans are better than even odds to take back the Senate this November.

At first blush, that might seem like something for Republicans to celebrate. Control of the Senate is the Grand Prize up for grabs in this fall's midterm elections. Few doubt that Republicans will hold on to the House, and most also acknowledge that Republicans are likely to cut into the Democrats' 55-to-45 majority in the Senate. (There are actually only 53 Senate Democrats, but both Senate Independents side with the Democrats.) The burning question is whether that Republicans will win enough seats to become the majority. And now Mr. Silver, the web's foremost political polling analyst and the very man who refused to give Mitt Romney much electoral love two years ago, has suggested on his FiveThirtyEight blog that "Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber."

Crack open the caviar, right? Cue the images of Mr. Obama's final two lonely years in the Oval Office, where filling out the presidential Final Four bracket will be the height of his executive action.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; elections; fearfuldems; obama
"During presidential elections, young people vote, women are more likely to vote, blacks, Hispanics more likely to vote," Obama said Thursday at a fundraiser in Miami for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "But in midterms, we get clobbered – either because we don't think it's important, or we've become so discouraged about what's happening in Washington that we think it's not worth our while."....................How about because voters see you as a failure!
1 posted on 03/23/2014 5:02:53 PM PDT by mandaladon
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To: mandaladon

Last episode of The Walking Dead, I saw Democrats in the background trying to register them.


2 posted on 03/23/2014 5:04:28 PM PDT by Mich Patriot (PITCH BLACK is the new "transparent")
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To: mandaladon

I remember not long ago when John Zogby was the polling superstar of the late 90’s and early 2000’s until his disastrous prediction of the 2004 race.

It remains to be seen how long Nate Silver’s streak will continue...


3 posted on 03/23/2014 5:07:45 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (question is this)
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To: Mich Patriot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAIpI8IxgFs


4 posted on 03/23/2014 5:09:33 PM PDT by Behind Liberal Lines
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To: mandaladon

I want the ‘pubs to take the senate and then immediately the House files for Articles of Impeachment, an early Christmas present, donchaknow...


5 posted on 03/23/2014 5:11:33 PM PDT by PROCON (Those who are capable of Tyranny are capable of Deceit to sustain it.)
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To: mandaladon

What are the democRATS going to do, lie, cheat and steal to win elections?
Oh right, they already do that.....


6 posted on 03/23/2014 5:13:06 PM PDT by 9422WMR (: " Tolerance is the virtue of a man who has no convictions".)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

Love that clip...can’t see it enough. Thanks for posting. My daughter needed to see it again as well.


7 posted on 03/23/2014 5:15:22 PM PDT by Mich Patriot (PITCH BLACK is the new "transparent")
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To: mandaladon
Lessee if the democrats' usual phony issues - Republican War on Women, blacks, the environment, etc etc - can get the democrat base to the polls in enough numbers this fall.

But ya gotta wonder how dumb people have to be to fall for their shtick again, with everything the current fraud in the WH has put us through.

8 posted on 03/23/2014 5:16:49 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: 9422WMR

> What are the democRATS going to do, lie, cheat and steal to win elections?
Oh right, they already do that.....

People are fed up with all of the above and their pandering to the AntiChrist and the evil factions of society that are wrecking their country


9 posted on 03/23/2014 5:17:56 PM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: mandaladon

Eh, I somehow doubt that there will be a “Nate Silver Effect” in November.

The big Democratic donors already know the score, and probably have run dozens of scenarios and gamed out every possible electoral outcome months ago. One more pollster saying “youze guys is in trouble” isn’t likely to move the money needle one way or the other.

As for the turnout, I don’t see that happening much, either. The hope they’re pinning themselves to is akin to Ted Kennedy’s speech for Carter - yeah, our guy is terrible, but if those Republicans get in... It’s a desperation tactic, one that rarely works.


10 posted on 03/23/2014 5:23:10 PM PDT by DemforBush (The scourge of mariachis and polka bands everywhere.)
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To: mandaladon

That prediction could open Democratic wallets.

Unless those wallets create a boat load of jobs and fast it will not maje any difference.


11 posted on 03/23/2014 5:23:21 PM PDT by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I go to sign up for the American Revolution 2014 and the Crusades 2014?)
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To: Mich Patriot

Walking Deadocrats.


12 posted on 03/23/2014 5:24:11 PM PDT by Sivad (NorCal red turf)
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To: PROCON

It looked like on 40% chance


13 posted on 03/23/2014 5:24:43 PM PDT by edcoil (Not a single republican was ever a slave owner. They were all democrats.)
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To: mandaladon

It will not matter if the Republicans take the Senate if they leave their balls and spines behind when they do.........


14 posted on 03/23/2014 5:25:24 PM PDT by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I go to sign up for the American Revolution 2014 and the Crusades 2014?)
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To: 9422WMR

You know that Missing plane, look for it over the US right before the Election with an EMP or Small nuke. Then the election will be “Delayed until the crises is over”. Sounds like a Clancy book but with Opsycho in off anything is possible.


15 posted on 03/23/2014 5:25:56 PM PDT by crazydad (Obamamohamed is a traitor)
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To: mandaladon

Isn’t it about time for every loyal Democrat to report for their new improved Obama phone around election time ?


16 posted on 03/23/2014 5:29:36 PM PDT by Newbomb Turk (Hey Newbomb, where's your brothers ElCamino ?)
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To: mandaladon

Yahoo trying to rally the liberal troops.


17 posted on 03/23/2014 5:29:42 PM PDT by WesternPacific (The herded sheep have finally arrived at the slaughter house.)
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To: Mich Patriot

Expect the MSM now to hammer away on the importance of democrat turnout between now and election day as if they were the paid get-out-the-vote division of the democrat party. Oh wait ... they are.


18 posted on 03/23/2014 5:32:53 PM PDT by MNnice
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To: crazydad
You know that Missing plane, look for it over the US right before the Election with an EMP or Small nuke. Then the election will be “Delayed until the crises is over”.

Recognize that a federal election has never been delayed in the United States. Elections continued during the Civil War and were binding, though not every state participated.

Further recognize that federal elections are run by the states. And, should Zero attempt anything like what you've suggested, very few states (if any) would comply with his request. And, even if some states went along with him, the result from the other states would still be binding.

The net:net is that the 2016 elections will run as scheduled -- no matter what.

19 posted on 03/23/2014 5:32:54 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media -- IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: SECURE AMERICA

Hey wait a minute I thought all the Democrats were working class people. The only people who could open their wallets would be the evil rich and aren’t they all Republicans? The Democrats. What a piece of work they are. I swear they pile the class warfare BS so high you need a trip on a 747 just to fly over it.


20 posted on 03/23/2014 5:34:45 PM PDT by dowcaet
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To: okie01

My concern is not that we will have elections in 2016, but that the Dem fraud machine will have reached the point where any (real world) Republican lead of less than 5-7% will guarantee Dem wins.

As long as Republicans rely on the courts to rein in Dem fraud, it will only get worse.


21 posted on 03/23/2014 5:44:27 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: ChildOfThe60s
My concern is not that we will have elections in 2016, but that the Dem fraud machine will have reached the point where any (real world) Republican lead of less than 5-7% will guarantee Dem wins.

Many more states will require photo ID in 2016 than was the case in 2012.

That should be a major step toward controlling election fraud.

22 posted on 03/23/2014 5:56:02 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media -- IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: Mich Patriot
Last episode of The Walking Dead, I saw Democrats in the background trying to register them.

The Democrat Party is the American Zombie Party. They go blindly into the voting booth without any ideas of what is going on with taxes.

23 posted on 03/23/2014 6:07:31 PM PDT by ExCTCitizen (I'm ExCTCitizen and I approve this reply. If it does offend Libs, I'm NOT sorry...)
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To: 9422WMR

Here’s hoping that the electoral margins are large that even the RATs manifold methods used to steal elections will be unable deliver.


24 posted on 03/23/2014 6:18:17 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: mandaladon

Attention author Mark Sappenfield:

Democratic pocketbooks
Democratic operatives
Democratic e-mails
Democratic Senatepocalypse
Democratic digital fundraising consultant
and those voters often trend Democratic
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Democratic campaign operatives

If you’re gonna be a big time jourinalist, you need to learn they are Democrats. There little, if anything democratIC about them.


25 posted on 03/23/2014 6:27:50 PM PDT by upchuck (South Carolina Representative Trey Gowdy for Speaker of the House!!!)
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To: 9422WMR

You know that Missing plane, look for it over the US right before the Election with an EMP or Small nuke. Then the election will be “Delayed until the crises is over”. Sounds like a Clancy book but with Opsycho in off anything is possible.


26 posted on 03/23/2014 7:00:13 PM PDT by crazydad (Obamamohamed is a traitor)
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To: PROCON

“I want the ‘pubs to take the senate and then immediately the House files for Articles of Impeachment, an early Christmas present, donchaknow...”

That won’t happen. You can argue it should but it will not. Taking the Senate does not mean getting the votes to convict and even if convicted think how the media would spin it.

Instead the Republicans, if they get a majority should do three things

1. Tax reform - not just temporary tax breaks but reform the system in a way that the IRS lays off most of its staff. Make it so that the tax code cannot be used for political advantage for ANY party.
For personal taxes:

2. If there are not the votes to override a veto then gut Obamacare by removing funding or making exceptions that apply to anyone. I must give Obama credit. I did not think it was possible to make a worse system than the British National Health system, but he did!

3. Election reform. Federal elections should be free from fraud. Groups, from the left or the right that engage in rigging elections should go to jail. Illegal voting should be suppressed.

4. Enforce immigration laws and make them reciprocal. Treat Mexican or Chinese or French citizens illegally in the US in the same manner that US citizens would be treated in the illegal alien’s county.

If the Republicans can do these things Obama is irrelevant for 2 years. The last thing the left needs is another Martyr. Let the fool retire and give speeches.


27 posted on 03/23/2014 7:15:22 PM PDT by Fai Mao (Genius at Large)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

“My concern is not that we will have elections in 2016, but that the Dem fraud machine will have reached the point where any (real world) Republican lead of less than 5-7% will guarantee Dem wins.”

you’ve nailed it. the demoncrats don’t need to energize their base. may of them are dead, but they still vote in large enough numbers to win elections. republicans don’t seem to have the cojones to challenge the demoncratic fraud that is rife in every election.


28 posted on 03/23/2014 7:16:24 PM PDT by IWONDR
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To: PROCON
I want the ‘pubs to take the senate and then immediately the House files for Articles of Impeachment, an early Christmas present, donchaknow...

Christmas 2015 maybe. The new congress is sworn in in Jan. 2015.

29 posted on 03/23/2014 7:37:20 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (God is not the author of confusion. 1 Cor 13: 33)
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To: PROCON

How many Republican senators do you imagine would vote to convict Obama? Five? Seven?

Any way you look at it, it’s not happening.


30 posted on 03/23/2014 7:39:06 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise. H)
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To: mandaladon

Nate Silver is a partisan hack, a Democrat shill. And even he says the GOP is likely to take over the Senate.


31 posted on 03/23/2014 8:17:01 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: SeekAndFind
I remember not long ago when John Zogby was the polling superstar of the late 90’s and early 2000’s until his disastrous prediction of the 2004 race. It remains to be seen how long Nate Silver’s streak will continue...
His math is pretty good. Me, I'll be giving him about 6 more years before I use him as my main indicator. Seasoning. See how those models do over time.
32 posted on 03/23/2014 8:38:53 PM PDT by GAFreedom (Freedom rings in GA!)
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To: GAFreedom

“....President Obama’s convincing victory in 2012.”

I missed that one. He won by a smaller margin than last time against a guy who threw the thing.


33 posted on 03/23/2014 9:02:19 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: mandaladon
That prediction could open Democratic wallets. Nate Silver, the political prognosticator pilloried by Republicans for correctly predicting President Obama's convincing victory in 2012...so when he predicts something Republicans don't like, they pillory him - when he predicts something 'rats don't like, they open their wallets - interesting spin.......
34 posted on 03/23/2014 9:11:46 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: PROCON

Nope. There’s a better chance republicans restore the filibuster rules to what existed before Harry Reid changed them, thus handing libs the weapons to halt a counter-offensive they have little stomach for.


35 posted on 03/23/2014 9:48:02 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (A half-truth is a complete lie)
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To: Fai Mao

Obama will not sign one bill into law this is passed by a Republican senate. A Republican controlled senate will not stop him. He will rule by executive order and the congress be damned...


36 posted on 03/24/2014 5:15:37 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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