Posted on 03/30/2014 6:48:10 PM PDT by No One Special
Following up on Putin’s phone call to Obama, Kerry is making a detour to Paris to negotiate with Lavrov over the fate of Ukraine.
Lavrov has laid out Russia’s terms, and intimates that Obama and Kerry have accepted the principles underlying these terms.
First, Russia demands that Ukraine adopt a new constitution that establishes a federal structure that gives each region considerable autonomy. Translate this to mean that these regions would be able to pull a Crimea. Or, more accurately, that Russia would be able to pull a Crimea, slicing off pieces of Ukraine and splicing them onto Russia.
Crucially, Lavrov said: “I can say that ‘federation’ is no longer a taboo word in our negotiations.” Meaning that if he is telling the truth (always a big if) Obama has conceded that Ukraine’s constitutional order is up for negotiation, on Moscow’s terms.
Second, Russia demands that Ukraine’s new constitution incorporate guarantees that Ukraine will not join Nato or any other alliance.
In brief: the Secretary of State of the United States is traveling to Paris to negotiate the constitution of a sovereign country, without the presence of that country. The end state of this negotiation would be to turn Ukraine into a Russian satrapy, to be gobbled up piecemeal, and with no ability to conduct an independent foreign policy.
Lavrov’s teaser is that Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine. But if you read his words closely, you will understand that he means Russia has no intention of invading if its terms are accepted. Otherwise, Ukraine is a fascist, Nazi threat to Russia and to Russian “compatriots.” And we know what Putin believes such a threat justifies.
The 1930s analogies keep coming, fast and furious. Here the analogy is Munich, where France and Germany negotiated Czechoslovakia’s fate with Hitler, without the Czechs being present. The Czechs called the agreement the Munich Diktat. Will the Ukrainians call this the Paris Diktat?
There are other similarities. The pretext of the Germans in 1938 was and Russia in 2014 is the necessity of protecting co-ethnics allegedly threatened by independent nations not invited to the negotiations. Munich resulted in the handover of the major industrial region of Czechoslovakia to Germany: the likely outcome of an agreement on Putin’s terms would be to handover Ukraine’s main industrial region to Russia. The Munich negotiations took place under the threat of a German invasion of Czechoslovakia if Hitler’s terms were not accepted, and German troops were massed on the border to carry out that threat. The Paris negotiations are taking place under the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine if Putin’s terms are not accepted, and Russian troops are massed on the border with the capability to carry out that threat.
Once upon a time “No More Munichs!” was a catchphrase in US foreign policy. No longer, apparently. Obama and Kerry seem to be saying “Why Not Munich?”
Even if no agreement comes of these talks, or talks that follows, it is deeply shameful that the United States would even engage in such a negotiation on such terms with such a nation. Deeply shameful.
Today Poland and the Baltic States will consider their own reset.
The truth?
America and Europe have no choice but to accede to Russia’s terms.
They’re not willing to go to war over Crimea. Ukraine itself is a geopolitical prize and is lock, set and match for the Russians.
Who don’t need an agreement to get what they ultimately want. The West is a playing with a weak hand.
Until the media comes clean with how the west had a hand in starting this crisis to begin with there is no basis for honest reporting. We’re told that Russia just up and invaded a ‘sovereign country’. What really happened is that the US and the West instigated the coup in Kiev and Russia reacted. Once that narrative is understood one can then make better sense of all that has happened. What’s more, it’s not for Kerry or Obama to agree to what happens with Ukraine, anymore than it would be up to Russia or China to intervene if we had dispute with say, Mexico.
Excuse me, but, doesn’t Ukraine have any say? I don’t recall Ukraine asking for guidance with what should be done with it. They were trying to fight corruption, and now the two most corrupt presidents are making decisions about its fate.
Another FRputin spreading disinformation?
FYI Ukrainians crave freedom after years of oppression, rusification and exploitation by anyone. People got enough of Yanukovych commie drive into arms of Putin. Stop the crap about “West instigated the coup”.
Brave Ukrainians showed that drive to commie slavery can be stopped, unlike the Americans bowing to king Kenyan.
Just wait for Putin “liberating” Brighton Beach, NY, lotsa oppressed Russian speakings.
If Obama and Kerry had principles - they’d tell Putin and Lavrov another country’s domestic affairs are no one else’s business.
But having conceded on Crimea, conceding on Ukraine is the inevitable next step. And Moscow can see very clearly they have no stomach for a prolonged confrontation.
An independent Ukraine is going to be sacrificed to appease the Russians. And like the Czechs, the Ukrainians will be forced to accept the American-Russian diktat because no one will go to war for them.
We lost the game once we decided to fold over Crimea.
It's already been confirmed that the United Sates was heavily involved and perhaps even instrumental in the overthrow of the Ukrainian government.
We did our part and Putin did his part so who needs to consult with the Ukrainians.
By the way, Obama has deposed Mubarak in Egypt, Gaddafi in Libya and is trying to depose Assad in Syria.
He tried to depose PM Netanyahu in Israel at the same time he deposed Mubarak and he is still trying to depose the government in Afghanistan.
This is the deal that was agreed to in writing by the three Ukrainian opposition leaders, Russia, Germany, France and Poland back in February.
Kerry has a long history of betrayal in Paris.
This reminds me of the secret negotiations the British had with the Soviets near the end of WWII. If I recall correctly, Churchill and Stalin agreed that the British should have 20% influence in eastern Europe.
It was all a farce. Stalin was going to take it all of eastern Europe, and Churchill could do nothing to stop him.
I got the smoke, if you’ve got the mirrors.
What is the state of your healthcare these days?
The Russians do have a point - you Americans have no respect for the sovereignty of other countries.
And you can sit there and lecture us about the need to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty. Who by the way sponsored the Maidan - and helped its ringleaders to flout an agreement by witnessed by the West themselves back in February?
Our Western partners as Russia is wont to say has no right to preach to us about international law, sovereignty and respect for a country’s internal affairs.
The Russian attitude - you made the mess in Ukraine and you clean it up. We don’t care how you do it as long as you do it.
Lavrov dicates the terms and while soiling his depends kerry agrees.
I know for an absolute fact from visiting and personal contact with people there, that the Carpatho-Russian region which was stolen by Stalin from Czechoslovakia in 1945 has NEVER wanted to be part of Ukraine, and has resisted as well as it could the Ukrainization from the Ukrainian Communist tyranny over the past 70 years.
The whole idea of the poor Ukrainians being subject to "Russification" is total hogwash. The opposite is the case.
As recently as last summer, I was told that the authorities in Kiev (which at time would still have been Yanukovich's government) had forbidden the use of Russian in newspaper and other publications, even though that is what the people there have always preferred. All I could find were in Ukrainian, which has been imposed on them. For one thing, this proves that Yanukovich never was a puppet of Russia and was never especially pro-Russian.
And remember this is the WESTERNMOST area of Ukraine.
Prepare for the hatred.
Funny to hear some Russian politicians, like Zhironovsky, supporting giving Western Ukraine back to Poland.
Ah! negotiations in Paris in the Springtime!
-
At dinner, Lavrov decided to gnaw on the Osso-Buco
whilst the ever erudite Kerry dined on the finest escargot that Paris had to offer.
At the end of their “negotiations” Kerry promised to send him a case of Napa wine, if Lavrov would send a case of Russian Vodka soaked raisons to his doting wife!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.