Could Democrats Gain Senate Seats This Fall?

It's a virtual article of faith among election analysts that Republicans will gain Senate seats in the 2014 midterms. I tend to agree with that assessment, and strongly so. In fact, like other forecasters such as Alan Abramowitz and Nate Silver, I think Republicans have the edge in the battle to take control of the upper chamber this November.

But there is one place where I part company with most forecasters. I’m not 100 percent confident that Republicans will gain seats. In fact, when I analyzed the Senate races in February, my simulation created a few scenarios where Republicans did, in fact, lose seats. (It’s also worth remembering that while a seven-to-nine seat Republican gain was the most likely scenario, in about 60 percent of the scenarios, Republicans gained some number other than seven, eight, or nine.)

Don’t get me wrong: For Democrats to gain seats this cycle would be the equivalent of drawing a straight flush. With that said, straight flushes do occur, so it’s worth examining how it might occur here.

The first thing that would have to happen is that the playing field would have to improve for Democrats. Of the 11 Democratic seats that RCP currently rates as leans Democratic or worse, Democrats are probably at least slightly favored in Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, and perhaps Colorado. If the political dynamic were to shift toward the party, these seats would probably be out of the GOP’s reach on Election Day.

The way this could occur is fairly straightforward: The Affordable Care Act improves; there’s no massive rate shock for premiums in September or October; and the economy slowly gains ground. This should propel President Obama’s job approval upward, lifting the collective Democratic boat.

My personal opinion comes in part from past exit polls showing that third parties (of any stripe) end up drawing fairly equally from each of the major parties. Didn’t that special election in FL recently bear that out?

I don't know I didn't look at any exit polls for that race. The (L) bastard had been polling pretty high (not typical for Florida) and ended up with just under 5%.

I seem to remember exit polls from 1992 saying Perot took evenly, I have trouble buying that but I think Clinton would have still won, more narrowly.

I still think they take more from us, particularly in States like AZ and MT. The IL Libertarians I'm pretty sure take mostly from us. In Cali, maybe not, lots of stoners and social liberals there. FL, I don't know, hasn't been a state with many Libertarian votes.

Looking at how Gary Johnson did in his home state, Obama 52.99%, Romney 42.84%, Johnson 3.55%. Senate race was Heinrich (D) 51%, Wilson (R) 45.28% and Jon R. Barrie (Ind. American) 3.63%.

Looking at Alaska, Romney 54.80%, Obama 40.81%, Johnson 2.46%. Jill Stein (Green) 0.97%. I'd be shocked Johnson cost Obama many votes there. Obama's slight increase in % due to Palin not being on the ballot looks about right, Romney's vote looks too low.

American Independent party (CA) and Independent American Party (NV) are Constitution party affiliates (the NM party wasn't but they have the same ideology). I doubt they take many rat votes but I'm sure they get plenty votes from people who have no idea what they stand for because they are attracted to the word "Independent".

In the 2006 race for IL Governor between Blago and RINO Judy Barr-Topinka, the Green Party (which got 10.36% of the vote!) clearly took plenty of votes from Topinka as well as Blago. This was because they were the only other choice on the ballot and got a lot of protest votes in that race between 2 unpopular a-holes.

I didn't vote for Topkina for Comproller in 2010, voted for the Libertarian Julie Fox, I hated to do it cause I don't want to encourage third parties, but Topinka disgusts me. This time she's running against the current LT. Governor, Paul Simon's daughter. Groan.

If 90% of the senate GOP campaign ads highlight the Obamacare debacle, then they will take the senate. If they can be trapped into debating other issues, the results may not be as good.

RNC..... Here is your template...... (1)Start the ad with films of Obama's lies about keeping doctors, coverage, and lower cost. (2) Insert democrat candidate's face and any affiliation they have with Obama. (3) Watch dim poll numbers plummet

Easy

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