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Who Will Win The Senate?: NY Times forecasts Democrats have 51% chance of retaining the Senate
New York Times, The Upshot ^ | 04/22/2014

Posted on 04/22/2014 12:04:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.

The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 04/22/2014 12:04:32 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The Community Agitators Formerly Known as ACORN will be getting out the dead vote that day, so anything could happen.


2 posted on 04/22/2014 12:06:51 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The best way to control opposition is to lead it ourselves." -- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Certainly, but don’t underestimate the ability and skill of the Republicans when it comes to snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.


3 posted on 04/22/2014 12:08:47 PM PDT by definitelynotaliberal (Go, Cruz! Go!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Pershap the Obamanation and other Demonrats ballyhooing the “resounding success” of Obamacare is turning the tide.
4 posted on 04/22/2014 12:08:53 PM PDT by luvbach1 (We are finished. It will just take a while before everyone realizes it.)
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To: SeekAndFind

If the DNC’s toads down at the New Yawk Slimes say their massas only have a 51% of holding the Senate, the ‘RATS are in deep Kimchi.


5 posted on 04/22/2014 12:08:57 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Obama's smidgens are coming home to roost.)
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To: SeekAndFind

All they need is more illegal aliens, more dead people and more poll workers to vote several times each. Yup, they probably will win.


6 posted on 04/22/2014 12:09:18 PM PDT by MomofMarine
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To: SeekAndFind

hey RATS, if youre only getting 51% out of that rag, it’s cryin time. get boehner to show ya how it’s done.


7 posted on 04/22/2014 12:09:45 PM PDT by kingattax (America needs more real Americans.)
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To: definitelynotaliberal
Certainly, but don’t underestimate the ability and skill of the Republicans when it comes to snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Mentioning no (Tokyo) names (Rove) of course.

8 posted on 04/22/2014 12:09:57 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The best way to control opposition is to lead it ourselves." -- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin)
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To: SeekAndFind
The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54 percent. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.

True Iowa could be iffy but if the NY Slimes thinks Arkansas will re-elect Pryor they're even dumber than I thought. But look for both states to elect GOP Senators. Farmers are suffering under Obama mis-rule. There's every possibility Iowa will elect the GOPer. The NY Slimes is also forgetting the increased GOP chances in New Hampshire and Michigan in making this assessment.

9 posted on 04/22/2014 12:11:08 PM PDT by MissesBush (The Fourth Estate has Become a Fifth Column)
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To: definitelynotaliberal
Yes, a Republican senate candidate CAN run 10 points behind ROMNEY.


10 posted on 04/22/2014 12:11:16 PM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: SeekAndFind

It would at least seem to me a slam dunk that the GOP should at the very least pick up nearly all of the US Senate seats in the red states carried by MR in the last election. These would include: AK, AR, SD, MT, LA, NC, WV-—there’s seven seats right there.

It seems to me the GOP has an even shot in some of the swing states including NH, VA, IA, CO there’s another four.

The GOP also seems to have a shot in a few solid blue states including OR, MI, MN so there’s another three.

If our candidates can avoid stupid comments about abortion and rape, it all seems very doable. Discipline, focus, determination-—it is possible.


11 posted on 04/22/2014 12:20:05 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: SeekAndFind

12 posted on 04/22/2014 12:20:30 PM PDT by pabianice (LINE)
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To: SeekAndFind

I predict very high turnouts in the Urban Jungles that will go over 100% Democrat.


13 posted on 04/22/2014 12:23:01 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

RE: If our candidates can avoid stupid comments about abortion and rape,

What if reporters and news people ASK YOU the same question they asked Todd Akin ( and believe me, THEY WILL because they want to help Democrats )?

Is the best answer — NO COMMENT?


14 posted on 04/22/2014 12:27:04 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: SeekAndFind

New York Times= Blog site


15 posted on 04/22/2014 12:28:11 PM PDT by Mark (Obama Care is now DEMOCRAT CARE)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obviously the MSM is on the side of the Dems and is always lying in wait to trap GOP candidates with their ambush attacks and gotcha questions. That’s why GOP candidates ALWAYS need to be more wary and disciplined.


16 posted on 04/22/2014 12:31:54 PM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: SeekAndFind

Cue John Belushi - please, please, please, please, PLEASE! Win


17 posted on 04/22/2014 12:37:00 PM PDT by epluribus_2 (he had the best mom - ever.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Todd Aken didn’t need help from the media to step on his johnson.


18 posted on 04/22/2014 12:44:12 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (Rip it out by the roots.)
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To: Little Ray

“I predict very high turnouts in the Urban Jungles that will go over 100% Democrat.”

And don’t forget all the dead people in Chicago ( I mean the one’s that they are “creating” on a daily basis as this is being written), irrespective of their age at the time they were deceased, will rise up in November and vote. Look for South Side precincts to have vote totals at at least 105% of registration, maybe more.


19 posted on 04/22/2014 12:45:34 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: SeekAndFind

This is all about giving the depressed American Left a ray of hope so they won’t just throw in the towel and not bother to show up on election day. That is their biggest fear.


20 posted on 04/22/2014 12:55:02 PM PDT by MNnice
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To: SeekAndFind

The GOP does the most damage to themselves by always spouting that “I can walk and work across the aisle” nonsense. If people vote for them, it will be because they are rejecting democrats, not because they want the squishy in between.

Romney did that in the last few weeks and that hurt him as much as anything else. It was so stupid.

The democrats show no desire to walk across the aisle, so the idea is ludicrous.


21 posted on 04/22/2014 12:57:40 PM PDT by dforest
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To: Little Ray

You know in the Senate races, the dems are going to cheat wherever it is needed to retain the Senate. I still doubt the GOP will do anything about that.


22 posted on 04/22/2014 12:59:05 PM PDT by dforest
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To: SeekAndFind

I still think the pickup will be 4 or 5 for the GOP. They’ll make a couple other races close, but we all know what “black magic” the dems manage to work on close, recounted races.


23 posted on 04/22/2014 1:00:15 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Dreamer... Nothing but a dreamer...


24 posted on 04/22/2014 1:00:46 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: SeekAndFind

So then, Ditch Mitch, by any means necessary, as an example for the others.


25 posted on 04/22/2014 1:03:03 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: ScottinVA

RE: I still think the pickup will be 4 or 5 for the GOP.

Well, that won’t be enough to control the Senate.


26 posted on 04/22/2014 1:04:09 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: epluribus_2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFvujknrBuE


27 posted on 04/22/2014 1:05:21 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

RE: So then, Ditch Mitch, by any means necessary, as an example for the others.

Well, Mitch McConnell isn’t going to have it easy in Kentucky and he might even COST the GOP the senate. Polls have him running even or slightly BEHIND his Democrat opponent, Allison Grimes.


28 posted on 04/22/2014 1:06:42 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Well, given the RATs expertise at election theft and the GOPers’ ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory....it wouldn’t surprise me one bit.


29 posted on 04/22/2014 1:07:28 PM PDT by clintonh8r (Don't give up! The liberals are buggering and aborting themselves into extinction.)
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To: SeekAndFind

What’s your prognosis for Ark.?


30 posted on 04/22/2014 1:10:03 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2

RE: What’s your prognosis for Ark.?

I think Mark Pryor will be sent packing.


31 posted on 04/22/2014 1:14:13 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (If at first you don't succeed, put it out for beta test.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Good. thanks.


32 posted on 04/22/2014 1:17:01 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Little Ray

“I predict very high turnouts in the Urban Jungles that will go over 100% Democrat.”

And I predict you are wrong and here is why.

The seats that we intend to easily win are Montana, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Dakota, Alaska. Biggest City in the bunch is Fayetteville Arkansas.

The states where we have a good shot are Michigan (there is no longer a Detroit city govt.), Louisiana (New Orleans still depopulated), New Hampshire (biggest city is Manchester), North Carolina (dems in Raleigh Durham might be able to cheat their way to a win).

States where we are hoping are Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota. biggest cities Des Moines, Portland and Minneapolis.

So except for Raleigh Durham and Minneapolis, the democrat big city cheating machines have zero opportunities.


33 posted on 04/22/2014 1:18:44 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: SeekAndFind

Pryor’s opponent is the best political leader in the USA and Pryor will be toast.

Frankly, Tom Cotton should be president one day.


34 posted on 04/22/2014 1:20:17 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: staytrue

I really hope you are correct!


35 posted on 04/22/2014 1:29:09 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: SeekAndFind

I find it to be only 49.72%.


36 posted on 04/22/2014 1:33:57 PM PDT by hal ogen (First Amendment or Reeducation Camp?)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Republican leadership doesn’t want to win the Senate. It would force them to make tough decisions they don’t have to make now, especially with the nuclear option in place.


37 posted on 04/22/2014 2:08:07 PM PDT by AdaGray
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To: SeekAndFind

Read this folks...and then check back on election night!!! The Republicans will gain at least 8-10 Senate seats....and will gain between twelve and twenty House seats, this coming November, 2014 election day!!!

If Obama continues on the path I think he will....the Democrats will lose even more Senate and House seats!!! In the real world, the only political salvation for the low life, Obamabot, Democrat Party is to force Obama to resign or impeach him!!! This....of course......will never happen....so, November, 2014 is going to be devastation for the Democrat Party across the board!!!


38 posted on 04/22/2014 2:41:05 PM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!.)
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To: staytrue
"Tom Cotton should be president one day."

I suspect that he is not unaware of the potential....

39 posted on 04/22/2014 2:53:54 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind

give or take 10 seats, they are right.....dreamers!!


40 posted on 04/22/2014 3:21:34 PM PDT by terycarl (common sense prevails over all else)
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To: SeekAndFind
If the New York Times says it's a 51 percent chance, that means Republicans' chances of taking over are excellent.

Whatever appears in the New York Times should be presumed to be a LIE unless it can be independently verified.

41 posted on 04/22/2014 3:29:11 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: AdaGray

“The Republican leadership doesn’t want to win the Senate. It would force them to make tough decisions they don’t have to make now, especially with the nuclear option in place.”

Yeah they do. If they control the committees, they control how to interact with the House when it comes to spending. They have people to pay too you know :-).

They know anything of substance (i.e. spending cuts) will be vetoed by the President.

You’ll hear a lot more favorable rhetoric, but the overall GOPe message will be “wow, we tried, but we can’t get anything passed while Obama is President ... give us lots of money so that our RINO pal Cristie or Bush will win in 2016”.

Here’s the tragedy. I agree we are going to win big this year. Just a gut feeling.

Looking out to 2016 (and assuming nothing major happens ... not a safe assumption, but who knows) ...

1> GOP will not lose the house.
2> If the GOP wins big in the Senate this year, there is a good chance they can hold the Senate in 2016 by one or two seats (we have a lot of “unfavorable-in-a-Pres-election-year” seats to defend, but we could win.

Now, if I knew the GOP were going to swing conservative in 2016, I’d be really excited. We’d stand a great chance at winning the Presidency and 2018 is going to be another nightmare year for the Dems in the Senate. We’d FINALLY have a real chance at cleaning up a ton of mess.

However, since the W. Bush years (and I like the man ... just not the spending), I’ve learned to NEVER get excited about anything changing. The entire opportunity will be squandered in the event a Cristie or Bush runs.

The GOPe loved the Tea Party in 2010 since they piggy backed onto that tidal wave and got control of some spending in the House ... they still gotta pay off their masters much like the Dems do ... the GOPe will LOVE being in control of both the House and Senate.

If the GOPe is faced with a Conservative executive branch, well, they aren’t going to like that ... they have NO desire to cut spending.

I swear, the only reason I like watching the GOPe win anymore is mainly due to the liberal heads exploding on TV.... that is a very sad, sick way to be, but I just don’t see things changing ... if someone other than Cristie or Bush runs in 2016, I might actually have some real hope again :-).

(Sorry for the rambling nonsense I posted ... your post just caught my eye :-) ).


42 posted on 04/22/2014 3:36:29 PM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: SeekAndFind

you put together scripts on rape, abortion any topic. rape: we need to reduce the incidence of rape — rape is a particularly heinous crime that violates the very being of a woman. these predators should be locked up for a long time. the Police do their part but judges are letting them out after 5 or so years etc.

you also have a script on abortion. We need to work toward goals that allow women to raise children in healthy and happy homes. make adoption an option — reduce the high costs of gasoline due to over regulation which is a regressive tax on the poor. etc etc etc


43 posted on 04/22/2014 4:03:41 PM PDT by kvanbrunt2 (civil law: commanding what is right and prohibiting what is wrong Blackstone Commentaries I p44)
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To: MNnice

Get the free t shirts and free lunch ready!


44 posted on 04/22/2014 4:05:41 PM PDT by ronnie raygun
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To: SeekAndFind; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Clintonfatigued; randita; InterceptPoint

I’d say there is 90%+ chance we win Arkansas no matter what a few polls say now fresh off some Pryor Jr. attack ads. He voted for Obamacare, in Arkansas, he’s gone.


45 posted on 04/22/2014 5:34:18 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Well, that won’t be enough to control the Senate.”

I’m aware of that.


46 posted on 04/22/2014 6:47:54 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: edh

I really enjoyed your response and you clearly know what you are talking about. I too like to see RATS heads explode, but I am so disgusted with the GOP’s lack of testicular fortitude that I also relish the thought of RINO’s losing, no matter what the consequences.


47 posted on 04/23/2014 4:20:20 PM PDT by AdaGray (q)
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