Skip to comments.IMPORTANT GOP House Primary Races: And How You Can Help (Mountain West)
Posted on 05/09/2014 8:39:19 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT
THIS IS FOR THE MOUNTAIN WEST (Rest of the country is in separate threads and Pacific Coast coming later, see links below)
There are numerous important House Primary Races! And places where we can WIN! PLEASE contribute! And if you can't contribute money ... the least we can do is go to their pages and give them a "like" or a tweet. All of these candidates are involved in primaries that are close (or could be close) against generally more moderate or liberal Republicans. All of these districts are winnable in November.
NIGER INNIS, NEVADA-4, June 10th .... winner faces DEM Horsford
NIGER INNIS -- FACEBOOK -- TWITTER -- DONATE
"We cannot have a meaningful discussion about the legalization of millions of immigrants here illegally until we secure the border and that includes tightening oversight on those visiting on visas."
BRYAN SMITH, IOWA-3, MAY 20th ... opposing incumbent GOP Mike Simpson
Bryan Smith -- FACEBOOK -- TWITTER -- DONATE
Endorsed by: Club for Growth PAC, FreedomWorks PAC, Citizens United, National Association for Gun Rights, Senate Conservatives Fund
Smith says: "Mike Simpson was one of three Republicans who voted in favor of ACORN funding. Simpson has repeatedly voted to raise taxes including voting with liberal Democrats in 2010 against cutting one hundred billion dollars from the federal budget."
Francisco "Quico" Canseco, TEX-23, he is in the May 27 run-off
QUICO CANSECO -- FACEBOOK -- TWITTER -- DONATE
Has endorsement of Texas Right to Life. Former congressman has best shot to win the seat back.
"I look forward to being on the campaign trail the next 12 weeks as I seek to secure the Republican nomination. Texans deserve the best nominee to stand up against government waste and Gallego's Obamacare and I believe I am the best candidate for that."
MATT ROSENDALE, MONTANA-at large, June 3rd .... either Rosendale or Stapleton needs to defeat Republican Zinke.
MATT ROSENDALE -- FACEBOOK -- TWITTER -- DONATE
"Montana represents the best of what we as a family believe in: God, liberty and a fundamental right to living our lives without the pressing hand of an intrusive government."
Conservatives are alarmed that moderate Zinke could win the primary. Read article here.
This will be updated periodically. The rest of country ... threads are posted with links see below in this thread.
Again, the criteria: the candidate must have a legit shot in NOV in their district and they are also in a tough primary fight against a candidate with lesser conservative appeal (or even a liberal).
Donate today. If broke, send $14 for victory in ‘14.
Does Rosendale’s gun have one of those evil forward leaning pistol grips?
I think so. Montana gets away with so much.
I neglected to say that Corey Stapleton is also a good candidate in the Montana race ... for some reason I think Rosendale has the better shot at winning on June 3rd.
here is the thread for the MIDWEST
here is the thread for the EAST and SOUTH
and there is a thread for Senate races ...
Glendive sure isn’t in real Montana.
Who is the candidate to back in that race?
I need to look at CO-4 and OK-5. They were on my list, but overlooked ‘em.
We’re rootin’ for Niger Innis here in NV. Horsford is a horses ass and needs to be gone come Nov. Unfortunately, where we are, we don’t get to vote for Innis.
Cresent Hardy, who is running in the primary against Niger Innis in Nevada, has some major business bankruptcy issues that are going to be coming out. I’m not sure why guys like that with baggage feel compelled to be spoilers, especially when they don’t have a bat’s chance n hell of beating the Dem in the general.
—sent my absentee ballot to Nye County yesterday, marked for Mr. Innis-—
I looked at OK-5. Appears as tho Patrice Douglas could face a tough race from Jolley on who will be the next congress-critter.
The race doesnt look interesting to Freepers who wanna defeat RINOs.
I have BUCK as unbeatable in the primary in CO-4.
Family Res Council
FOR THE WEST COAST, i HAVE
Salvation ... big primary in WA-4. Janea is struggling to raise money. Is Didier much preferred over Newhouse? Any thoughts? All 3 claim to be strong conservatives, pro-life.
CA45 ... 2 prolife conservatives mimi backed by SBA List
ca 3 .. 1 GOP
ca 9 ... colangelo only serious candidate
ca 16 crass is the candidate unknown on abortion
this is what is left:
i found a good one. IN california #7 primary
pro-life Emken (ran against Feinstein) is facing Republican Doug Ose, former congressman. Ose had an excellent rating from NARAL.
this seat is winnable in NOV
maybe Birman is the man to back
Ose is an establishment RINO hack of the worst sort, and was willingly used by ex-Gov. Ah-nold S. to try to prevent Tom McClintock from winning his current House seat. Birman is indeed the one to back in this adjacent district.
Family Research Council endorses Birman
“Igor Birman’s positions on the issues of the family and religious liberty are to be commended. His invaluable experience living under an oppressive regime makes him uniquely qualified to defend our cherished rights and values. As someone who knows first-hand the dangers of a government unaware of its limitations, we believe Mr. Birman will defend the Constitution in a manner consistent with his experience.
“We are confident that Mr. Birman will continue to be a strong advocate for limited government, for individual and religious liberties and for family values.”
FreedomWorks spending money on Birman
Sen Mike Lee
CA 31 ... HOW bad is Lesli Gooch and can Chabot win in NOV? prob face Baca
conservatives are dumb. They should get a moderate-conservative Hispanic DEM and run him against Chu in CA27 primary. when it gets to NOV ... and 2 DEMS on the ballot, the Latino could win.
The theory is good, but there are no donors. East LA has gone Chinese.
Simon and DeMaio are bothed loaded with cash ...
Simon supports gay marriage ... not sure what he says about it
I have a typo for Bryan Smith ... he is Idaho-2, not Iowa
Birman is a very interesting candidate.
I’d back him unless it was clear Emken had a better chance to stop Ose.
Fred Simon being pro-gay marriage and pro-choice is a disappointment.
Jorgensen needs more money to compete with him and De Maio (and Peters of course). Though rather than the conservative vote being split I guess the moderate vote will be split.
I am going to post both Jorgensen and Simon on my post unless the Simon supporters want to throw in the towel.
Nat Org for Marriage, Brian Brown is backing Jorgensen of course.
the problem is that Jorgensen is a first-time candidate. Objective, the best scenario might be DEM Peters getting re-elected and Jorgensen wins in ‘16 ...
CA=7 Birman over Ose
CA31 Chabot. this race needs more research on Booch
CA-52 Jorgensen over DeMaio
I don’t wanna post Simon on JimRob’s site ... if he is a gaymarriage prochoice GOPer. Unless somebody has convincing arguments.
Those are the only 3 real interesting races on the Pacific coast ... primaries that is.
It will be a lot more difficult for Jorgensen to beat Peters in a one-on-one general election in 2016 (a presidential election, and with Peters having been in office for four years instead of being a freshman) than in 2014. Now’s the time to beat Peters.
If Simon is pro-abortion and pro-same-sex-marriage, how the heck is he an improvement over Sicko DeMaio (I just thought of that nickname!)? Just because Simon is straight doesn’t mean we want him as a Republican co gressman. Jorgensen is the clear choice.
CA-31 is regarded as a likely loss for the GOP. Dems Aguilar and Reyes have over $900k and $800k in the bank. Gooch is a distant 3rd with $200k and Chabot has just $100k. Oddly, ex-Congressman Baca has just $145k, which makes you wonder if he’s going to seriously contest it. If money turns into votes, which it usually does, we may not have a candidate in the runoff.
Dale Francisco is interesting ... he might have a lock on the primary .... researching
Mitchum ... prochoice pro-marriage
I need to call Justin fareed campaign
Even if we got a candidate into the general, whichever first-tier Hispanic Dem makes it would be the prohibitive favorite. Pretty much our only chance is to get two Republicans into the top-two general (with the three or four prominent Dems splitting the Dem vote fairly evenly); that is exactly what happened in 2012, which is how Gary Miller managed to be reelected despite the new Dem district lines.
I am supporting Matt Miller in CA-33, Waxman’s seat.
There are 5 well-financed Leftists in the primary and one well-financed GOPer and then Miller is the 7th candidate.
It looks like it will be a DEM vs GOP in NOV, which we cannot win. If Miller got into the top-two, he could beat the usual lefty in NOV.
I don’t see Freepers having any interest in this one. But I’m keeping an eye on it. Maybe the GOP Carr will get first in the primary, so maybe Miller has to beat all the DEMS. CA33 is D+11. He was my classmate, he was A.B. Econ, which is the non-quantitative degree. I vaguely remember him at the moment.
other people must be more familiar with him, Fortune mag, CNN etc.
<<<<<I am supporting Matt Miller in CA-33, Waxmans seat.There are 5 well-financed Leftists in the primary and one well-financed GOPer and then Miller is the 7th candidate.”<<<<
Never heard of him, “radical centrists” seem like preachy progressives to me. Whatever.
2 polls for CA-6
An Ose internal poll from April 28th shows
Bera 43%, Ose 24%, Birman 8%, Emken 6%
An DCCC poll from May 6th shows
Bera 47%, Ose 22%, Birman 17%, Emken 7%
Gooch looks like the only play in CA-31, we need a Republican to make the runoff.
As for CA-52, Jorgensen is the only play. Simon is just a straight De Maio, in fact I’d probably prefer De Maio to him because he’d have a better chance of beating Peters.
Gold, that Montana race is fascinating ... rural politics is something special. Stapleton or Rosendale ... who can beat Zinke ?
Rosendale moved to eastern Montana from Maryland in 2002 and got elected to the state senate. That could be his biggest hurdle ...
In WA-1 Pedro Celis is the only viable Republican, he shouldn’t need help making the runoff (WA has the same stupid system as cali) since the other 2 Rs are broke.
In WA-4 the lone D is broke, R v. R general is therefore possible, which would result in the more liberal R winning.
backup evidence that it will be a 2-man race In MT and Rosendale has a fighting chance.
Zinke has the resources and a compelling background, Parker said. The man was a Navy SEAL. In the hierarchy of military experience, thats darned near the top.
Rosendale, a real estate developer, has Libertarians and Republican Young Guns. a group of younger party members, helping form a solid organization behind him, Parker said.
At the end of the day, you can do it with a grass-roots organization like Rosendale, or you can do it with money, like Zinke, the MSU professor said.
in WA-4, I am not sure there is a more liberal Republican. Hard to differentiate ... but it perhaps will be a 2way race to NOV regardless of what happens in the primary. I think those top 2 will be way ahead.
I have my California candidates as follows:
CA-24 Justin Fareed to beat Mitchum
I’m not sure Mitchum is unacceptable ... that one I don’t know about.
Anybody in CA we could check with to get their input?
“Im not sure Mitchum is unacceptable ... that one I dont know about.”
In CA-31, we shouldn’t be supporting Gooch to the exclusion of Chabot; our only chance is if they finish 1-2 with 18%+ each and with each of Aguilar, Reyes, Baca and Tillman getting between 13%-17%.
some seemed content to get one GOP in the NOV election and hope it is a landslide year. Not sure if Chabot has a shot to finish 2nd place. I will go with your idea unless there is further discussion.
California Primary thread is up
Rosendale of MT gets the Tea Party Express endorsement. Yesterday.
The Tea Party Express I tend to be wary of. They usually endorse Ronbots and wave said endorsement around like it’s REALLY what the entire Tea Party wants.
His spy drone ad seems to be getting him a lot of attention.
They also just endorsed the dude that’s running against Ralph Hall in Texas.
I’m very wary of them, clearly they are closely affiliated with the Ronualan Empire, even endorsing Tom Massie despite his lack of a primary opponent.
Not all their picks are bad though.
And oddly enough, Paul himself has endorsed Hall in Texas. One old guy to another.
Major divisions in that Texas race. Club for growth, Senate Conservatives Fund’s House (on the cousin Miltie in Kansas Train and the waste time in Louisiana and Kentucky backing people that can’t win train, but otherwise good) project are also for the challenger, John Ratcliffe. Bachamann and Joe Barton are for Hall.
I’m not really compelled to oppose him serving one more term.
As for Montana, I don’t know.
The Tea Party Express does seem to be the worst of the vocally active "Tea Party" groups out there (well, I suppose fake "Tea Party" candidates who are really Dems would be worse, but they're not really an organization).
They're a California based group that has a nasty habit of sticking their nose in races elsewhere in the country where they know nothing about the local issues or the candidates, and undermining the local tea party groups who are making genuinely educated endorsements. A perfect example is when the TPX endorsed squishy loser Mark Neumann (who was only polling 10% anyway and had no chance of winning the nomination) in the Wisconsin Senate primary and confused local conservative voters enough to split the Tea Party vote and allow GOP establishment favorite Tommy Thompson to win the nomination.
Elsewhere, they've also endorsed terrible candidates with no conservative track record who have muddied up numerous races where there is a clear proven conservative candidate. Their tactic seems to be to "get behind" any candidate who screams he or she is "ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT!!!" the loudest (giving absolutely no weight to the candidates track record or qualifications for the job) and jump into the race with guns blazing. This also includes if the candidate is as establishment as it gets, but just campaigns as "anti-establishment".
Looking at their past endorsements, I'd say the TPX backs the wrong horse 60-70% of the time. They've endorsed some decent candidates, but a lot of those races were no brainers where the only other candidate was a horrible RINO.
The TPX co-founder (Sal Russo) also has a long track record of being on the amnesty bandwagon. Recently this was exposed and he's now backtracked on the issue. Go figure.