Posted on 05/09/2014 8:39:19 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT
Yep, it has a Cook PVI rating of R+1 and it was held by a RAT prior to Runyan (barely) taking it in the strong GOP year of 2010. It is a swing seat that was last held by a Republican, not a "Republican seat", and that's a big distinction.
Running a guy with a 0 wins - 5 losses track record of seeking higher office is exactly the kind of candidate that could snatch defeat from victory in an otherwise strong GOP year, something his fan club is oblivious too. One of the reasons we didn't win all the races we expected to in 2010 was because of nominating candidates like that (Sharron Angle, etc.)
I see Sarah Palin has endorsed Lonegan now. A bunch of freepers will love that but in my mind its another poor endorsement she made that will go nowhere. (not to say all her endorsements are bad -- most of them are actually quite good). Other than that I haven't heard much about this race lately besides Lonegan lagging behind.
I serious doubt this is Lonegan's "last campaign" though. He sworn up and down that last time, saying if voters didn't elect him that he'd go back to the private sector, and only a few months later he "changed his mind" and even relocated to a new part of the state so he could run for this open house seat. And if his fan club hasn't figure out after five straight losses for higher office to give someone else a chance, I doubt a sixth loss in 2014 will do anything to damper their enthusiasm.
But it's a seat that currently has a close partisan divide, it can be lost by a dud like Lonegan.
Poor choice from Palin, I'd been agreeing with her choices so far this year.
What about CO-3. Tipton vs David Cox.
CO-3. Tipton vs David Cox:
may the best man win ...
Poll by Dan Jones & Associates
Mia Love (R) 44%, Doug Owens (KNCC, D) 32%
Smaller lead than I’d like.
It’s odd that there’s about 20% undecided (5% going to others). Love should get close to 60% in the end.
Nice baby ‘fro!
We came so close to beating LaFollette last time with David King, eccentric, and you talking about the rape allegations? The timing was too convenient.
I didn’t realize LaFollete ran in the recall rat primary for Governor, he did extremely poorly.
I kinda like the retro ‘70s ‘Soul Brother’ look. He wasn’t even born, yet ! I forgot what it was that sunk the prior candidate, only that he had something going on. I think the party sacrificed him, though. This time it appears we have much more serious and able candidate. He beat a much older Assemblyman in his 70s who wanted to abolish the office (abolishing sounds too extreme, but with Lafollette effectively parking himself in it for 4 decades, going to appointive by the Governor might be a better idea, or term limits).
I am concerned about Love’s weaker-than-expected showing. This district went 56% to 41% for John McCain, which is closer to its typical showing than it’s overwhelming vote for Romney, the first Mormon Presidential nominee for a major party.
The area has a lot of multi-generational families who are very old-fashioned in their outlook. Maybe Mia Love, an immigrant from Haiti, is too different for their tastes.
So a black, female Haitian-American who converted to the LDS Church as an adult is “only” 12% ahead, and you are “concerned”? She’ll be fine. Maybe she won’t win by 20%, but she’ll win by 10%-15%.
New Peepeepee (D) poll for South Dakota gives Rounds (R) a paltry 9 point lead over the rat, failed 1996 US House nominee Rick Weiland, 39% to 30%, with 16% for traitorous ex-Republican Larry Pressler and 5% to self described “Tea Party” candidate Gordon Howie, not to be confused with Gordie Howe.
This poll was commissioned for Weiland. SD Democrats are more furious at Pressler, since he’s taking more from the Dem. Rounds is unlikely to lose.
Mike Rounds practically had this race handed to him on a silver platter and still hasn’t been able to put this race away. That’s disturbing. I wish that Kristi Noem had been the nominee. She’d definitely make a better Senator, though I’m sure that Rounds will be good enough.
Article on Martha McSally (Who had the election stolen last time)
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