Posted on 05/23/2014 9:06:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Here’s a familiar-seeming political tale. An incumbent Republican senator, from a famous political family and with a long history of moderation, is challenged by an upstart candidate in the GOP primary. The upstart is a successful entrepreneur turned talk-radio host and small-town mayor with a reputation for slashing spending and fighting unions; the Club for Growth endorses him. The Republican establishment rallies to the incumbent’s side. Karl Rove works for the incumbent; Mitch McConnell and John McCain stump for the incumbent. In the end, the incumbent wins, but barely. Then the incumbent goes on to lose to the Democrat in November in a race that may have tipped the balance in the Senate.
You might assume that this story refers to something from the 2010 or 2012 election cycles, when — so the narrative goes — tea party candidates caused all sorts of grief for the Republican establishment and potentially cost the GOP control of the Senate. But the details don’t quite fit any election in those years. Instead, this is the story of the 2006 Republican primary in Rhode Island. Lincoln Chafee was the incumbent; Steve Laffey was the upstart; Sheldon Whitehouse was the Democrat who beat Chafee that November, when Democrats took control of the Senate, 51-49.
With McConnell having defeated his challenger, Matt Bevin, in the Republican primary in Kentucky this week, there’s been a lot of talk about whether the influence of the tea party is waning. According to a series of mainstream media accounts, McConnell “crushed” the tea party in “the latest big beat” for the movement, which is “losing steam” as the economy improves.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Yes. The Founding Fathers endured much less before the first shots were fired.
‘Tea Party’ Has Outlived Its Usefulness
I think we heard similar words from Prime Minister Lord North in 1774.
It took a few more years back then to see it through. It will be the same today. We may lose several battles, but we will lose the war if we quit.
I think a lot are pushing amnesty so they can drop it as a final FU on the way out the door.
Being correct in his prediction of trends and elections is more important and valuable to Silver than being liked by his fellow liberals.
Yea believing that I am over taxed and the government wastes 80% of my tax money has “outlived it’s usefulness”.
Kiss my ass Nate
Agree 100%. People are too quick to attack this article as anti-conservative. It's definitely NOT. READ the article.
He's just saying the term "tea party" has outlived its usefulness, especially given that since it's not really a political party at all. It now means a thousand different things as a result. Nebulous terms & labels without structure are not useful for a movement. IMHO he's right - ditch the "tea party" label.
Yet another druid full of himself exaggerating the demise of a permanent fixture to the political landscape.
The Tea Party is not one group, not even a few groups. It is an expression of the will of the grassroots and will never go away until the GOPe is thoroughly cast out and into the camp of democrats where it comes from.
Yes, the GOPe will lose elections in November because the Tea Party base will not support it, democrat victories not withstanding. It may take another one or two election cycles for the GOPe to be neutered, but it will happen. They cannot survive without the Tea Party but the Tea Party can survive without them.
To understand using an apt historical analogy, there is a two-front war going on, the Tea Party vs. the GOPe and the Tea Party vs. the democrats, similar to the second world war where a pacifist USA was drawn into a two-war front with the Germans and Japanese.
In the second world war, the top US military brass spent the first two years fighting each other over issues of money and resources more than they spent hot war fighting against the real enemies. But once the effort was organized and focused, the US war machine ran the enemy machine aground and starved it into submission.
The same is happening in the two-war front that the Tea Party is engaged with. When the time comes that its fund raising and candidate selection are more focused and more efficient, it will run the GOPe out of business and breach the barriers of democrats and their media.
Hmmm... every week for the last 6 years there’s an “end of the tea party” column.
Right on. Tea Party is not a group, it is in our heart of hearts and will show up at the ballot box...and if the ballot box can’t be trusted then I believe the tea party WILL become a formal group and the chips will fall where they may.
If that was true why do they fear it so mush?.
Then I’m well up on the curve. But I’m getting old. I hope to live long enough to see how this all turns out. We need to get started.
Yep.
Amazing the people who know nothing of the math behind statistical sampling on both right and left who act like they know more than an expert in the field.
As with others from my previous profession, being accurate in ones’ predictions matters far more than the ideology of who wins. When I was a pollster, I’d much rather do an accurate and useful survey for a dem than tell a rep what they wanted to hear. Or vice versa. Pollsters are like pitchers or batters - the team only matters at the moment, what counts is the stats. Nate isn’t perfect, but if this was baseball he’d be a 300+ batter.
Ideology doesn’t matter, only accurate numbers. A pollster would rather predict within a percentage point or two, a landslide for someone they hate than screw up a poll for someone they love.
It’s good to let the enemy think that we have gone away.
That way when the Socialists lose big in the 2016 election it will be a surprise attack!
If this country is going to change for the better it has to be done at the county and state level. The tea party people are stronger at this level. Little change towards reestablishing the original intent of the Founders is not coming out of DC.
According to a series of mainstream media accounts, McConnell “crushed” the tea party.
And that’s “crushing.”
> “IMHO he’s right - ditch the “tea party” label.”
And replace it with what?
How about nothing at all.
Personally, I think it's silly. Say the words "Tea Partier" and in the minds of those who don't post on Free Republic is the image of some beer-bellied white guy wearing camo and/or a tri-cornered hat and waving around a Gadsden flag, --an image that sends moderate suburban voters fleeing, --the very voters who decide elections.
Conservatives, limited government proponents, whatever.
Thumbs up.
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