Posted on 05/23/2014 9:06:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Nope.
Nate: The TEA Party is in a war with the GOPe. In any war, battles are won and lost.. the Tea Party is here for the long run and it’ll take years like other wars.
Pollsters are like pitchers or batters - the team only matters at the moment, what counts is the stats.
No, you're wrong. It depends on what stats (context) and at what moment. In baseball, all that should matter is winning the World Series. Everything else is secondary including stats. Not even runs scored is an important figure. A World Series can be won with 4 runs in 4 games and that's a pathetic figure in total runs.
There's plenty of history where a team with lesser stats wins the World Series. And there are many explanations for this such as the league the winners came from and the annealing process of statistics experienced from such league.
Nate isn’t perfect, but if this was baseball he’d be a 300+ batter.
Ken Griffey Jr and ARod were once together at the same time on the same team and were consistently 40+ home run hitters with well over 300 batting averages in same seasons for the Seattle Mariners, yet the team finished in the cellar if not close to it. Statistics only have meaning in context.
In the case of Silver's remarks concerning the Tea Party, the remarks are not statistical, they are merely remarks of an observation of irrelevance to the political process based on nebulous definitions, categorizations, and outcomes. His remarks could be characterized by the quote coined by some politician as a "nothing-burger". The only thing that sticks out is the title, and it is devoid of serious analysis or purpose, not to mention its false inference.
Michael Barone was once upon a time a star prognosticator and diviner of political outcomes. He's since crashed and burned. Statistically we can say he had a nice run. But his run could have been a random draw based on a universe of methods; in other words his models were false but surprisingly correct. All models are false but some are useful
Silver really hasn't had much more success than other prognosticators. Based on historical records and demographics, the same results have been produced by many contemporaries to Silver.
The real statistic to watch that is relevant to Silver's foul title is the number of times those in the media have professed the death of the Tea Party.
I will defer to you :-) My comments about pollsters in general is more about the fact that the ones I’ve known and worked with would rather be right than be ideologically correct. Good points all, Nate could just be lucky. Time will tell.
Regards, and thanks for an enlightening post.
> “Good points all, Nate could just be lucky.”
No, he’s not lucky, he’s just using data and methods that are easily used and have been used by others.
It’s a bit like someone who can point north without a compass, lots of people can do that, even high school students.
Silver is just better at marketing his name.
Statistically what he is doing is not impressive, innovative or new. Do a search of political pollsters and you will find many others that use basically the same data and methods with maybe a small tweak here and there, an adjustment for a special factor etc. but all reach pretty much the same conclusion.
You nailed it. I’m very active in our Tea Party. We’re not going away.
He has no innate idea but he’s a reasonable guy. I am mixed on Nate Silver’s analysis.
I have watched the stories seesaw in the press: First round of primaries we lost, then we won the next, then we lost again. Keep watching. You are right.
Most important point, made by many others, is that the ideas are winning.
What is true for the image of the tea partier is true in general during election season: The pictures that people hold in their minds are so very important, especially with an uninformed electorate. When voters thought of Bevin, the first thing that popped into their mind was a cockfight.
Our candidates are relatively inexperienced, but they just have to remember that less is more. When you’re on the national stage, you can’t just say whatever you think of or do whatever seems like a good idea at the time.
They have a saying in Brooklyn: Don’t talk unless you’re going to gain something by it.
“Lucky” in the sense of, as you say, marketing himself well. Just like the most famous singers are not necessarily the best- technically competent and professional. The pollster profession is an interesting one; thought I wanted to do it at one time and worked all sorts of parts of several gigs, polling outfits, TV stations. As with legislative aid, the other thing I explored, just too many weird hours and irregularity in employment for me.
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