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Looking Back at the Tea Leaves on Cantor
National Review ^ | 6/10/2014 | John Fund

Posted on 06/11/2014 2:49:04 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross

Eric Cantor’s loss is historic. No sitting House majority leader has lost an election since the office was created in 1899. While Cantor’s loss was a stunning surprise, the warning signals were around for a while:

1. Cantor managed to muddle his message on immigration. His direct-mail pieces claimed he was foursquare against amnesty. But the newspapers covering Washington, D.C., quoted him as saying he was seeking a compromise with President Obama on immigration. Voters resolved the seeming contradiction by deciding to vote out their establishment congressman. Cantor’s loss destroys any chance of a comprehensive immigration bill passing the House this year.

2. The majority leader outspent his opponent, David Brat, by $2.5 million to $40,000. Much of that money went to negative ads against Brat that turned off voters and were so vitriolic as not to be credible.

3. Cantor was also hurt by a subterranean campaign by Democrats to convince their supporters to vote in the Republican primary against Cantor. Apparently, some of them did.

4. Many constituents of Eric Cantor felt he had ignored them for years, rarely returning home and often ignoring them on key issues ranging from expanding Medicare prescription-drug benefits to TARP bank bailouts. The frustration boiled over at a May party meeting in his district, where Cantor was booed and his ally was ousted from his post as local party chair by a tea-party insurgent. “He did one thing in Washington and then tried to confuse us as to what he did when he came back to his district,” one Republican primary voter told me.

And, looking forward:

5. In theory, Cantor could run as a write-in candidate in the November election, but that is highly unlikely. A divided GOP vote could elect a Democrat in a district where President Obama won 43 percent of the vote in 2012.

6. The House Republican Caucus has experienced an earthquake. Regardless of John Boehner’s decision on whether to remaining speaker, there will now be a new majority leader. Early contenders for the post are House Financial Services Committee chairman Jeb Hensarling and House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan. Both men are more conservative at their core than Cantor, who often made colleagues think he was a conservative of convenience rather than conviction.

Primaries are often criticized for low voter turnout. But they are also expressions of the grassroots sentiments of political parties. The lesson tonight is that establishment candidates ignore their most ardent voters at their peril. As political analyst Stuart Rothenberg put it tonight: “The GOP establishment’s problem isn’t with the Tea Party. It’s with Republican voters.”


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: brat; cantor; teaparty
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To: bfh333
Knocking off a sitting Senator in a primary is NEARLY impossible even as awful as Graham is...


Don't worry about Graham, he only cares about one thing - keeping his Senate seat and staying in power.

He blows with the wind and the winds are blowing in a conservative direction.

Expect to see an new and improved Lindsey Ver 10.3 emerge after today.

FWIW, things would have been much different for Ol’ Lindsey if it were not for the release of the 5 Taliban big wigs from Gitmo.

This gave Lindsey a perfect chance to vocally oppose Obama and call for impeachment which played very well in his state.

41 posted on 06/11/2014 4:21:43 AM PDT by rdcbn
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To: rdcbn

Hank Johnson: the 'face' of the intellect of the democRATic party ....

42 posted on 06/11/2014 4:22:13 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: Servant of the Cross
I'm now waiting for Cantor to call for party unity and then open National Republican coffers to Brat.

(Does anyone actually believe that's going to happen?)

43 posted on 06/11/2014 4:23:09 AM PDT by Timber Rattler (Just say NO! to RINOS and the GOP-E)
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To: Timber Rattler
I'm now waiting for Cantor to call for party unity and then open National Republican coffers to Brat.

Hah! Yes, and John Boehner will make a congratulatory call to Brat offering NRCC help and Karl Rove will laud the attributes of Brat and his smart campaign strategy!

And Guam will tip over.

44 posted on 06/11/2014 4:26:34 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: Servant of the Cross
Early contenders for the post are House Financial Services Committee chairman Jeb Hensarling and House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan. Both men are more conservative at their core than Cantor, who often made colleagues think he was a conservative of convenience rather than conviction.

I don't see Ryan giving up his Budget Committee for Majority leader. For Speaker, yes. McCarthy is the whip, he is the traditional 'next in line' for the leaders post. I'd bet he gets it, since the establishment still runs the show.

45 posted on 06/11/2014 4:30:05 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Gaffer

Laura called BS on hume. That was great.


46 posted on 06/11/2014 4:33:16 AM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Servant of the Cross

Don’t forget that when conservatives called his congressional offices with their opposition to amnesty, his office staff was rude and hostile to their concerns. Those “smart” staffers antagonized the voters….a really stupid thing to do.

That should be a valuable lesson to other GOP politicians, who treat TEA Party Republicans as knuckle-dragging know-nothings.


47 posted on 06/11/2014 4:33:38 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: MDspinboyredux

Whatever. This guy is solid. You are cherry picking. The house senate and statehouses are filled with winning tea partiers.


48 posted on 06/11/2014 4:35:39 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: F15Eagle
Cantor just lost touch. His folks didn't even bother to show up at my polling place. That was enough to resolve my ambivalence.
49 posted on 06/11/2014 4:35:52 AM PDT by oldsicilian
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To: DoodleDawg
McCarthy is the whip, he is the traditional 'next in line' for the leaders post. I'd bet he gets it, since the establishment still runs the show.

I think this will be the 'test'. I like Hensarling for Speaker and I hope that he has enough House backing and his own Majority Leader in mind to oust McCarthy too.

50 posted on 06/11/2014 4:36:20 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: txrefugee
Those “smart” staffers antagonized the voters….a really stupid thing to do.

Yep. Remember this one ... Cantor Aide: I’ll ‘Bankrupt’ Virginia GOP, Install Allies, Rebuild It With Cantor’s Donor Cash ... oopsie ...


51 posted on 06/11/2014 4:40:13 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: Servant of the Cross

SC is open to Dems


52 posted on 06/11/2014 4:42:33 AM PDT by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: Sacajaweau

I checked the website of the Virginia Secretary of State, and no Democrat was listed.


53 posted on 06/11/2014 4:44:32 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (Health Care Haiku: If You Have a Right / To the Labor I Provide / I Must Be Your Slave)
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To: Servant of the Cross
how do we reoeat...

By being better, MUCH BETTER than the opponent. The ones who didn't win when they had the backing to get the spotlight made serious mistakes and/or seemed as the campaign got rough to be less than sincere about their conservative credentials.

Look at McDaniels and Brat. They developed stronger, more focused conservative voices when they were unfairly smeared by the RINO ptb onslaught.

PS to the establishment: stopping the invasion of the US and sending home invaders is not negotiable.

54 posted on 06/11/2014 4:46:19 AM PDT by grania
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To: Sacajaweau

“It was an open primary and Dems went to the polls.”...

Why even have elections when the demodummies control the vote? Make all “primary” elections closed to only one party, its being done in other places.


55 posted on 06/11/2014 4:47:20 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: MDspinboyredux

Obama took 43% in a presidential election. He got out the base vote from Richmond. Different turnout, different demo, different candidate. In an off year election which is more overwhelmingly Republican, the unknown (white college professor) Dem has no chance.


56 posted on 06/11/2014 4:47:34 AM PDT by nhwingut (This tagline is for lease)
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To: Sacajaweau

I don’t believe the Dems changed the outcome of this election. Not at all.


57 posted on 06/11/2014 4:53:35 AM PDT by kjam22 (my music video "If My People" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74b20RjILy4)
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To: Sacajaweau
It was an open primary and Dems went to the polls.

I don't see this at all. Why would Dems want to defeat Cantor? He's 100% on their side re immigration reform. It's a strong GOP district, so unless Brat pulls an Akin, he's a shoo in.

Conservatives are sick of establishment politicians who go along to get along and sick of the people they elect not standing up for conservative principles. There's no mystery or conspiracy in any of that.

58 posted on 06/11/2014 5:03:10 AM PDT by randita
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To: MDspinboyredux
possible Dem pickup in this district.

Not really. The dem candidate is a nobody. The dems aren't going to be pumping a bunch of money at one house race when they have serious concerns about keeping the Senate. And the district is designed to be heavily republican. It's pretty safe for any republican candidate.

/johnny

59 posted on 06/11/2014 5:10:57 AM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: Gaffer

“these ‘plans’ are all just euphemisms for allowing criminals who broke our laws to illegally stay in this country.”

It is just THAT clear and simple.

No American could go to any country on this earth and get away with something like this!


60 posted on 06/11/2014 5:12:30 AM PDT by SMARTY ("When you blame others, you give up your power to change." Robert Anthony)
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