Skip to comments.United States Assessment of the Downing of Flight MH17 and its Aftermath
Posted on 07/20/2014 5:43:28 AM PDT by WhiskeyX
United States Assessment of the Downing of Flight MH17 and its Aftermath
We assess that Flight MH17 was likely downed by a SA-11 surface-to-air missile from separatist-controlled territory in eastern Ukraine. We base this judgment on several factors.
Over the past month, we have detected an increasing amount of heavy weaponry to separatist fighters crossing the border from Russia into Ukraine. Last weekend, Russia sent a convoy of military equipment with up to 150 vehicles including tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers to the separatist. We also have information indicating that Russia is providing training to separatist fighters at a facility in southwest Russia, and this effort included training on air defense systems.
Pro-Russian separatist fighters have demonstrated proficiency with surface-to-air missile systems and have downed more than a dozen aircraft over the past few months, including two large transport aircraft.
At the time that flight MH17 dropped out of contact, we detected a surface-to-air missile (SAM) launch from a separatist-controlled area in southeastern Ukraine. We believe this missile was an SA-11.
Intercepts of separatist communications posted on YouTube by the Ukrainian government indicate the separatists were in possession of a SA-11 system as early as Monday July 14th. In the intercepts, the separatists made repeated references to having and repositioning Buk (SA-11) systems.
Social media postings on Thursday show an SA-11 system traveling through the separatist-controlled towns of Torez and Snizhne, near the crash site and assessed location of the SAM launch. From this location, the SA-11 has the range and altitude capability to have shot down flight MH17.
Ukraine also operates SA-11 systems, but we are confident no Ukrainian air defense systems were within range of the crash. Ukrainian forces have also not fired a single surface-to-air missile during the conflict, despite often complaining about violations of their airspace by Russian military aircraft.
Shortly after the crash, separatists including the self-proclaimed Defense Minister of the Donetsk Peoples Republic Igor Strelkov claimed responsibility for shooting down a military transport plane on social media.
In an intercepted conversation that has been widely posted on the internet, a known-separatist leader tells another person that a separatist faction downed the aircraft. After it became evident that the plane was a civilian airliner, separatists deleted social media posts boasting about shooting down a plane and possessing a Buk (SA-11) SAM system.
Audio data provided to the press by the Ukrainian security service was evaluated by Intelligence Community analysts who confirmed these were authentic conversations between known separatist leaders, based on comparing the Ukraine-released internet audio to recordings of known separatists.
Video posted on social media yesterday show an SA-11 on a transporter traveling through the Krasnodon are back to Russia. The video indicated the system was missing at least one missile, suggesting it had conducted a launch.
Events on the ground at the crash site clearly demonstrate that separatists are in full control of the area.
So, after your glowing “assessment”, what the hell are you going to do about it? First thing you need to do is to help us be rid of odumbo and then, perhaps then something of value will be done.
It took me several readings to figure out that it was the intercepts that were posted on YouTube, not that they intercepted YouTube postings.
What would you like them to do about it?
After everything is said and done, Obama will get a black eye for his unemotional response to this event, There will be little consequence to Russia or Putin, the airline will be sued for flying over a war zone. Beyond all this, little of consequence will come about. A few months from now, it will be nearly forgotten as the MSM finds other big stories to cover.
The only real tool we have right now is a unified front with the leaders of EU with an application of financial pressure through the markets and trade. But even that will be limited in nature. I am wondering where all the “Putin is our hero because he is standing up to Obama” Freepers have gone, though.
Sad but true.
The only thing that can best be done is NO acceptace of the rebel controled area as a seperate country. Consider it a desputed part of the Ukraine and that is all.
There are pictures of the bodies in bags alongside the roads as lots of Donetskians on foot and on bikes walk through them in horror at what they are seeing.
This is the Donetskians’ Auschwitz moment.
Are you sure you are on the right thread???
If true then this is a major escalation of the conflict.
The key to that is unified front with the EU. They have yet to take a firm stand against Russia so far. Will this be enough to get them off the fence? Time will tell.
Russia apparently wants control of Ukraine without having to fight a war (itself) to get it. Such knowledge could be very useful in the hands of a leadership that actually gave a flying you-know-what.
I would not be surprised if there are behind the scenes meetings by all those involved to come up with a way to move past this “unfortunate” event. One thing is clear and the US Assessment is correct: the Russians have been giving heavy weaponry to the rebels along with special forces and officers for such use and applications of weapons. They aren’t even really hiding it. Putin probably wishes the civilian aircraft wasn’t taken down, because it is counter to their slow bleed strategy as there is a disconnect between what Russia says and what they do.
The first thing we should be doing is cutting off all landing rights in Europe and the US for Russian flag aircraft. Then suspend all visa’s to the West for Russian’s and cancel existing visas. Maybe this would wake up the Russian’s that the world is not going to do nothing while Putin tries to reassemble the USSR by force.
No chance. Governments of major EU countries are full of Russian agents of influence and people blackmailed by KGB, which these days is more active abroad than during the cold war and the west is a real sitting duck in this area. Merkel herself comes from East Germany, being a university employee she must have had some contacts with Stasi and Stasi files ended up in Moscow. Even If her “contacts” were rather meaningless, these documents would destroy her career.
Merkel herself comes from East Germany, being a university employee she must have had some contacts with Stasi and Stasi files ended up in Moscow. Even If her contacts were rather meaningless, these documents would destroy her career.
Pretty much all of the current leaders of Europe now would have been ambitious young adults during late Soviet times. They would have played the political game to get ahead. I don’t doubt Putin has piles of blackmail on them.
Russia apparently wants control of Ukraine without having to fight a war (itself) to get it.
It is war now and has been escalating quickly in the past few weeks. Now daily reports of cross border rocket artillery attacks by Russia on Ukraine. This isn’t a shell here or there but batteries of GRAD rockets to stop Ukraine control of the border.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.