Q2 GDP Surges 4%, Beats Estimates Driven By Inventories, Fixed Investment Spike.....

ZeroHedge ^ | 6/30/2014 | Tyler Durden

[mykroar]

Moments ago the Commerce department reported Q2 GDP which blew estimates out of the water, printing at 4.0%, above the declining 3.0% consensus, as a result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, both of which added over 2.5% of the total print, while exports added another 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below.

What is interesting is that the Commerce Department announced that as a result of incomplete June data, the biggest components of the GDP beat, Inventories and Trade, were estimated. In other words, assume that future revisions of Q2 GDP will be lower, not higher, as the actual data comes in, and especially as the CapEx data, which contrary to the GDP report, has not rebounded. Speaking of revisions, today the BEA also released its annual revision of all data from 1999 to Q1 2014, which made last quarter's -2.9% print a more palatable -2.1%, in the process throwing everyone's trendline calculations off as yet another GDP redefinition was implemented.

We are currently combing through the years of revisions and will provide a snapshot shortly but for the time being here is Bloomberg's take:

• •2Q personal consumption up 2.5% vs est. up 1.9% (range 1.5%-2.9%); prior revised to 1.2% from 1%
• •Core PCE q/q 2% vs est. 1.9% (range 1.4%-2.3%) •Gross private investment up 17% in 2Q after falling 6.9% in 1Q
• •Residential up 7.5% after falling 5.3%
• •Purchases of durable goods jumped 14%, most since 3Q 2009
• •Corporate spending up 5.9% vs little changed q/q
• •Inventory accumulation added 1.7ppts to GDP

[ckilmer]

I agree. Everywhere’s dead when I’m going to/from work and there are so many empties everywhere that aren’t getting refilled it’s ridiculous. My brother and I both just shake out head. Whereever this growth is, it ain’t here.
............
The growth is in the midwest and mountain states where the oil is.

[Beagle8U]

I wonder what it would cost to register/copy-write ‘King Putt’?

[redangus]

October numbers will be 2% unemployment and 7% GDP growth, then right after the Nov mids everything will be revised back to the REAL numbers which will of course be abysmal. They did it in 2008 to get Barry elected, again in 2012 to get him reelected so why not in 2014 to help the Dems?

[Jane Long]

Not sure, but I see lots of opportunities....

King Putt deems that you’ve won this round.

King Putt will use his pen and phone...to make sure you’re under par.

King Putt bobbleheads for the golf carts....

King Putt shoe scrapers....

Endless possibilities ;)

[redangus]

And the DC area. I was just there and they place is booming. Sky cranes working well into the night and all weekend.

[Beagle8U]

How about a T-shirt that says...

“King Putt...when qualifications limit your options to golf or vacation.”

“King Putt...no problem so large that it can’t be forgotten on the golf course.”

[TWhiteBear]

I see these figure as massaged, edited, and spun. The revisions to the methodology destroy any accuracy.
This boomlet of bogus numbers is just propaganda to help the Establishment get reelected. After the 2014 election, the real numbers will ooze out.
TWB

[Joe Boucher]

seems EVERY rosey prediction gets shot back down after the adults get involved.
This obammy gub mint blows., and LIES

[aquila48]

The market isn’t too excited - Dow down 82 points.

[mykroar]

That’s just because the market thinks the numbers are too good and the funny money might stop flowing.

[aquila48]

True - they’re waiting for Yellen’s pronouncements.

[jmaroneps37]

“Attention comrades Dear Leader has given us wonderful news! Our GDP has skyrocketed under his expert hand. There will be an extra shot of vodka for all. That is all now back to work.”