HERE IT IS: SocGen's Famous Chart With The Black Swans

BI ^ | 8-9-2014 | Sam Ro

[blam]

Sam Ro
September 9, 2014

"Black swans" characterize unforeseen and unlikely events that have the potential to rock the economy and financial markets.

While the sharp slowdown in Europe has dominated the economic headlines lately, SocGen believes that we should be most worried about China.

"The most significant downside risks to the global economy in this short-term setting aside geopolitical risks remains a hard landing of the Chinese economy," the analysts' said. "As highlighted on a previous occasion, the fact that China is now the world’s second largest economy means that a scenario in which China experiences a hard landing knocking an initial 2pp off GDP as investment collapses would cost the global economy 1pp in lost GDP the first year after the shock."

Europe, however, could actually offer some serious upside. Here's what they think:

(snip)

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[blam]

CREDIT SUISSE: Europe Will Avoid A Triple-Dip Recession

[nathanbedford]

Well, if the event is anticipated it is not by definition a black Swan event which must be unanticipated. Indeed it should be an "unknown unknown" in the parlance of Donald Rumsfeld.

However we label it, we conservatives should consider this in the context not just of economics but of geopolitics and domestic politics. If a black Swan occurs, or if one of these anticipated event occurs, it might be the catalyst needed to push theArticle V movement into the popular consciousness. It certainly will affect the next election.

[exit82]

The paragraph in the center under “70% potential” is not reflecting reality.

Sounds like it was written by Jack Lew.

[Red Badger]

Black Swans? That’s WAYSIST!...............

[Pearls Before Swine]

Plotting these swans on what looks like a normal curve is idiotic.

[indthkr]

ChiCom economy bump for later.....