Why Ebola Probably Won't Go Airborne

BI ^ | 10-6-2014 | Kevin Loria

[blam]

Kevin Loria
October 6, 2014

The idea that Ebola could go airborne is terrifying.

Once you are infected, few diseases are more likely to kill you — and death by hemorrhagic fever, diarrhea and vomiting often accompanied by bleeding and organ failure, sounds particularly awful. At present it's hard to get infected — healthcare workers and family members caring for victims are at highest risk — but that would change if the virus were to mutate so that it could be transmitted through the air while keeping its present lethality.

That's a nightmare scenario.

But it's more the stuff of bad dreams than of reality. There's no known precedent for a virus to change in that way.

It is theoretically possible — everything in nature changes and evolves. Some health officials highlight this as a reason to act now to contain the disease. Anthony Branbury, the UN's Ebola chief (who is not a doctor or an Ebola researcher), recently said the possibility of an airborne mutation shouldn't be ruled out.

Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, floated the possibility of airborne Ebola in a New York Times op-ed titled "What We're Afraid to Say About Ebola." He made the argument that since there are so many more Ebola cases now, more than there have ever been, the virus has more opportunities to mutate than it ever has, which makes an airborne mutation more possible.

Osterholm wrote "that virologists are loath to discuss [this possible mutation] openly but are definitely considering [it] in private."

This argument is supposed to motivate governments to act to get the virus under control before the devastation in West Africa gets worse — and that's important.

(snip)

[blam]

The more people that are infected the more chances it has to mutate and create mutants that may be airborne infecting capable.

[LeoWindhorse]

mosquitoes ?

[GraceG]

Why are people wearing FULL respiration gear if this is not airborne?

[Vaquero]

Joe Ebola sneezes in your face from across the room, It’s airborne.

[rlmorel]

Well, the “fact” that it “probably” won’t go airborne makes me feel a lot safer.

[Jonty30]

It is in the air, because blood particles are in the air.

It’s just not in the air in sufficient quantity to pose a high risk.

[EEGator]

“Probably”

That’s good enough for me...

[SoConPubbie]

It’s just not in the air in sufficient quantity to pose a high risk.

Then I guess the CDC just like dressing up in full head-to-toe protective gear???

[muir_redwoods]

Do keep in mind that, to a scientist, gasses are fluids so when the government tells you it can only be spread via bodily fluids, they could well be engaged in lawyer-speak

[Clean_Sweep]

Because it is airborne and that is not working either apparently.

[SargeK]

Infectious dose is believed to be 1-10 virus particles by aerosol. So says:

Franz, D. R., Jahrling, P. B., Friedlander, A. M., McClain, D. J., Hoover, D. L., Bryne, W. R., Pavlin, J. A., Christopher, G. W., & Eitzen, E. M. (1997). Clinical recognition and management of patients exposed to biological warfare agents. Jama, 278(5), 399-411.

Try again?

[steve86]

Why are people wearing FULL respiration gear if this is not airborne?

Every virus is "airborne" if you're close enough to the source. But an actual airborne virus, in classic terms, is one that spreads across several aisles of a supermarket or the entire cabin air of an airliner. Ebola Zaire, is not, as of yet, in that category. Many of us will die if it ever is and no vaccination or specific treatment is available.

[Jonty30]

That’s a standard precaution when dealing with any biohazard material. Bodily fluids is classified as bio-hazard material because there are other diseases, besides Ebola, that one could get.

[Jonty30]

You have to be pretty close to an Ebola victim to risk getting it through the air. You’re not going to get it if you were in the same vicinity as the victim.

At least, according to the CDC.

[UCANSEE2]

mosquitoes ?

Killer bees from south of the border and from Africa.

[Sooth2222]

"At present it's hard to get infected"

How can they possibly say that? I don't think that Mr. Duncan, the health car workers, and the NBC cameraman were trying to get infected. If they didn't want to become infected, it isn't difficult at all.

[SoConPubbie]

That’s a standard precaution when dealing with any biohazard material. Bodily fluids is classified as bio-hazard material because there are other diseases, besides Ebola, that one could get.

Ebola from Pigs to Monkeys

A deadly Ebola virus can spread from pigs to monkeys without direct contact, pointing to pig farms as a possible contributor to outbreaks.

. . . .

In pigs, Ebola mainly infects the lungs and airways, which makes them well-suited to spreading the virus through the air. To see if this was possible, Kobinger teamed up with Hana Weingartl from the University of Manitoba. They used nose swabs to infect piglets with Zaire Ebola, then placed them in a room with four cynomolgus macaques. The monkeys lived inside a wire cage within the pig pen, so the two species never made direct contact despite sharing living quarters.

The piglets developed heavier breathing and mild fevers, but were otherwise unharmed by the infection. But the monkeys were not as lucky. After 2 weeks, the pigs had passed the virus to all their neighboring macaques, who developed bloody spots on their chest and limbs and signs of damage in their lungs.

The study shows that the virus can spread without direct contact, but “keep in mind that Ebola is not suddenly an airborne virus, like influenza,” said Kobinger. Instead, the virus could have jumped from pigs to monkeys via small droplets in the air, or larger ones that splashed into the monkeys’ cages when the handlers cleaned the floor of the pigs’ area.

Sure, keep telling yourself that.

[SargeK]

I’ll grant you that. It is a pretty fragile virus. But the CDC and other ‘authorities’ haven’t been doing a very good job so far in ensuring that people aren’t exposed in close proximity.

[tips up]

“Probably”...

[onona]

$64,000 question right there.

Answer: they do not know the full potential of this virus yet.